April 20, 2013 -- Updated 0955 GMT (1755 HKT)
Pakistan's ex-leader Pervez Musharraf returned to Pakistan after five
years in exile, determined to make a comeback. But could his grand plan
be turning into a disaster? FULL STORY
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MUSHARRAF CONFINED TO HOME
April 20, 2013 -- Updated 0406 GMT (1206 HKT)
Pervez Musharraf facing charges
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Pervez Musharraf went back to Pakistan after five years in exile, hoping to return to politics
- But officials barred Musharraf from running for parliament, days later he was arrested
- Some Pakistanis would be happy to see the return of the ex-military ruler
- Others will point to the many enemies he made in the final years of his presidency
But his grand plan has turned to a disaster following a week that the former president would rather forget.
On Tuesday, election
officials barred Musharraf from running for a seat in parliament. By
Friday he was formally arrested -- the first time that has happened to
any former chief of the Pakistani army -- amid claims he illegally
placed senior judges under house arrest during a period of emergency
rule he imposed in 2007.
Later that day he was
transferred to a guest house at Islamabad Police HQ where he can be held
for a maximum 48 hours before he appears in court to face charges
relating to the detention of the judges. At that point he could get
bail, go to jail or return to house arrest at his villa. Most analysts
expect the house arrest option.
Musharraf under house arrest
Pakistani court: No bail for Musharraf
The ex-military strongman
still has to face two separate other cases dating from his time in
power. The first relates to claims he did not do enough protect the life of Benazir Bhutto --
the first woman to be elected prime minister of Pakistan -- after she
was assassinated in 2007, just weeks before an election in which she
hoped to be returned to office. Musharraf is also accused of ordering
his troops to kill Nawab Akbar Bugti, a popular tribal leader, in the
volatile province of Balochistan, in 2006.
Musharraf comes clean on drone strikes
Former Pakistani president's new life
Last month, Musharraf told CNN that all the charges against him are "trumped up, politicized cases." But he now finds himself under house arrest at his farmhouse compound on the outskirts of Islamabad.
Why did Musharraf bother returning to Pakistan?
Despite the criminal
charges awaiting him and the threat of assassination by the country's
Taliban extremists, Musharraf arrived in Karachi last month and
declared: "I have come to save Pakistan."
Though the party that
succeeded him became the first democratically elected government to
serve a full five-year term during the country's 65-year history,
Pakistan is still beset with problems -- a crippled economy, food
shortages, frequent power cuts and a bloody insurgency.
In his absence overseas, the government had frozen the considerable wealth Musharraf had acquired.
According to CNN's Nic
Robertson in Islamabad, Musharraf expected a swift return to politics
amid plenty of popular support -- but that proved a major
miscalculation.
"From day one it didn't
happen," said Robertson. "As one of his advisers told us, 'it would have
been better if he hadn't come back.' Musharraf anticipated hundreds of
thousands of people greeting him at the airport when he landed. It
turned out to be hundreds.
"Then there were the
legal cases: charges of treason, of being involved in the Bhutto murder
and of putting judges under house arrest. In all those cases the judges
really went after them aggressively.
"Musharraf had expected them to hold off until after the election. That didn't happen.
"Then his apparent
miscalculation in the election itself -- he was barred by the election
commission from challenging for four different seats. Now he's not able
to leave the country and under house arrest. The reality is the advice
he appears to have been given about the level of popular support he
still has in Pakistan was erroneous."
What level of support does Musharraf have?
Musharraf's popularity
began to wane in 2007 after he suspended the chief justice of the
Supreme Court for "misuse of authority." The move resulted in protests
and accusations that he was attempting to influence a court decision on
whether he could seek another term in office.
More than six years on
and some Pakistanis would be happy to see the return of the ex-military
ruler, hoping his leadership could help restore order to a country
riddled with political division and plagued by extremist violence. But
others will point to the many enemies in the final years of his
presidency, notably among the judges he detained.
The Pakistani Taliban
vowed to send a death squad to hunt down the former president if he
returned to the country, although Musharraf has admitted he has been
living under threat of death since September 11, 2001, when he supported
the American war on terror and fought against the Taliban.
Musharraf also revealed last week that his government secretly signed off on U.S. drone strikes
within its borders, but only if there was no time for Pakistan's
military to act against al Qaeda targets. This is the first time a top
Pakistani official, past or present, has admitted publicly to such a
deal.
"He said it wasn't a
blanket agreement -- he agreed to perhaps several of these types of
drone attacks -- but until now absolutely no word, no hint of this, only
ever denials that there were ever any green lights," said Robertson.
Can Musharraf count on support from the military?
As the former army
chief, Musharraf will have retained support and influence within
Pakistan's powerful military. "Most people here think the army won't let
him go to jail and won't tolerate him being under house arrest for
long," said Robertson.
"However they will not
do anything rash. They'll exert their influence behind the scenes to
secure a favorable outcome. I think for now the legal process continues
apace."
What's next for Musharraf?
More court appearances.
After appearing before a magistrate Friday, Musharraf returned home
where he is being held under house arrest, according to his lawyer,
Ahmed Raza Qasoori.
Musharraf will continue
to seek bail in the case, Qasoori said. However, an attempt on Thursday
to appeal the Islamabad court's decision at the Supreme Court appeared
to have so far been unsuccessful. To further complicate matters, Qasoori
claimed the Islamabad High Court judge who ordered Musharraf's arrest
is one of the judges whom Musharraf is alleged to have had detained in
2007 and therefore should have recused himself from the case.
Are there implications for Pakistan?
"The judiciary has been
emboldened, though they are widely perceived to operate a political
bias," said Robertson. "But in the end we are seeing small steps towards
democracy in Pakistan. Ultimately a strong and unbiased judiciary is a
good check on political corruption and excess."
But an editorial Friday in The Nation,
an English-language newspaper, took a more critical view of events this
week. "All segments of society, supporter or opponent, official or
non-official, high or low, are watching keenly to ascertain just how
Pakistan will deal with the first of its former dictators to go on
trial.
"Adding further spice to
the case was the total inaction shown by the police in putting him
under arrest that had been specifically ordered by the IHC (Islamabad
High Court). As he came out of the court room, he sped off to his villa
... in a bullet-proof vehicle, guarded by his personal security, with
the police and rangers playing the part of silent spectators."
Referring to the
provisional administration in place until after next month's election,
it added "the shameful reality is the utter lack of cooperation and
indifference shown by the caretaker setup in Musharraf's trial, though
it is simply carrying on with the tradition set by its predecessor
governments."
CNN's Jethro Mullen contributed to this report.
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