By Inserting Itself Into Syrian War, Hezbollah Makes Dramatic Gamble
By ANNE BARNARD
Ali Hashisho/Reuters
Supporters of the Lebanese
militant group Hezbollah and relatives of one of its fighters, Saleh
Ahmed Sabagh, at his funeral last week in Sidon, Lebanon.
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Fighting a pre-emptive war against foreign jihadists
is not the usual mission for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group best
known for confronting Israel. So when its leader, Hassan Nasrallah,
explained why he was sending fighters into Syria, he took care to remind
his followers that they were not “living in Djibouti” but on the border
of a country whose two-year uprising Hezbollah sees as a threat to its
existence.
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With its plunge into the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah is taking its
followers in an unaccustomed direction, in a gamble that could help
rescue it from that threat, bringing it new power and confidence, or end
in a defeat with wide repercussions. Hezbollah is betting its prestige
and security on the effort to crush a Syrian rebellion that is detested
by Hezbollah’s Shiite Muslim base, but popular with the group’s Lebanese
rivals and with much of the Sunni majority in the wider Arab world.
Hezbollah’s biggest stake in the conflict is the same as that of its
ally, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad: survival. The group relies on
Syria to provide a conduit for arms from its main patron, Iran.
Preserving that flow is a matter of life or death for Hezbollah, as its
leaders have made clear.
Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, which it long played down, has
gradually come out into the open as the casualties mount. In the past
month, as the group began helping the Syrian Army sweep villages
surrounding the strategic town of Qusayr in an effort to connect
Damascus with government strongholds on the coast, 141 fighters have
been killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a
Britain-based group that tracks the violence through contacts in Syria.
Of those, it said, 79 have died in the past 10 days, a number in accord
with counts by researchers tracking Hezbollah Web sites.
To justify the unexpected new sacrifices it is asking from its
followers, Hezbollah has framed the risky intervention in Syria as
crucial to safeguarding its avowed core missions: challenging Israel,
empowering its Shiite community and protecting Lebanon. But if it fails,
by Hezbollah’s own assessment the fallout could jeopardize all three of
those missions. That would leave the group weakened, with bridges
burned at home and abroad, amid growing fears of a regional war between
Sunnis and Shiites.
Even in the Dahiya, the group’s stronghold in the southern suburbs of
Beirut, a sense of isolation and anxiety is brewing among some of
Hezbollah’s deeply loyal supporters. One resident, Umm Hassan, fretted
over the weekend about where she would go if Hezbollah again came under
attack from Israel. The last time that happened, in 2006, thousands of
Hezbollah supporters took refuge in Syria, staying in the homes of
Syrians, including the Sunnis who dominate the uprising the group is now
helping to crush.
“Where will we go this time?” Umm Hassan said. “There is nowhere to
hide. Even if we win there, I don’t see Syria as a safe place for me as a
Shiite. We will be killed, if not by the Israelis, by angry Syrians.”
The first test case is the battle for Qusayr, near the Lebanese border,
where Hezbollah and the Syrian government expected a lightning victory
that is already more than a week in coming. For outgunned rebels still
hanging on, who include many homegrown Qusayr fighters, the battle has
taken on an Alamo-like significance.
If Hezbollah succeeds in leading the Syrian Army to victory in Qusayr,
the group that came to prominence as a guerrilla force fighting Israeli
occupation in its own hills and village could claim a previously unknown
capacity to assault and hold territory. That could add to its deterrent
power against its primary foe, Israel, adding credibility to its
threats to invade northern Israel in a future conflict.
But if it loses, or fails to win quickly and decisively, Hezbollah could
suffer a blow to its military luster not unlike the one it inflicted on
Israel in 2006.
The risk to Hezbollah, said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East-based military analyst at the International
Institute for Strategic Studies,
is that “the longer the battle lasts, the more the prestige of the
organization is eroded, its military image.” If Mr. Assad falls or is
seriously weakened, the group will find itself increasingly isolated at
home and in the Arab world, where it long topped polls as the most
respected political institution.
Already, Bahrain has joined the United States and Israel in declaring it
a terrorist organization, and a Syrian rebel leader, Gen. Salim Idris,
in whose home province rebels are now under attack by Hezbollah
fighters, on Monday went so far as to call on the United States to bomb
the group in Lebanon.
“There’s no way for Hezbollah to fix this politically; they’ve gone too
far,” Mr. Hokayem said. “The question will be, can they remain one or
two steps ahead of their rivals militarily?”
A long slog in Syria could also provoke attacks on Hezbollah areas in
Lebanon from Syrian rebels or their supporters; two rockets struck the
outskirts of the Dahiya on Saturday, though no group claimed
responsibility. It could also embolden rising Lebanese Sunni militants,
and if Hezbollah’s intervention is seen as destabilizing the country,
that could disrupt the political alliances with Christians and others
that help make Hezbollah the country’s most powerful political bloc.
Hezbollah is the country’s most effective military force, stronger even
than the army, so it is unlikely to face a frontal assault. But with
Sunni rebels infiltrating the country’s porous borders, it could face
harassing attacks.
Jamal Maarouf, the commander of a powerful rebel group based in northern
Syria, the Saraqeb Martyrs Brigade, threatened in an interview on
Monday to attack the Lebanese Army if it did not stop Hezbollah fighters
from crossing into Syria, while at the same time blocking Lebanese
Sunni militants from entering to help the rebels.
“I have 500 fighters in Lebanon, ready to move,” Mr. Maarouf, who knows
Lebanon well after living there for many years, said angrily. “The
Lebanese government should take a clear stance. Their silence means they
are satisfied.”
Hezbollah can ill afford to alienate the army, on which it increasingly
depends to protect some of its areas as it deploys fighters on multiple
fronts, analysts said. Nor is it in the group’s interest to drag the
country into new violence that could further harm the country’s
tourism-dependent economy, hurting followers and rivals alike. Kuwait on
Sunday ordered its tourists to stay away from Lebanon after the rocket
attack, dampening hopes for the summer season.
On the other hand, a victorious Hezbollah would hold new sway in its
tripartite alliance with Iran and Syria, analysts say. It would retain
or increase its dominance in Lebanon. It would never likely regain all
the pan-Arab popularity it enjoyed before siding with Mr. Assad, but it
could take credit for defeating extremist groups among the rebels that
worry the West, more-secular Arabs and the Shiite world alike.
Kamel Wazne, founder of the Center for American Strategic Studies in
Beirut, said Hezbollah had calculated that failing to act was riskier
than taking the fight to Syria. He added that in any case, “they believe
that victory is from God, and losses are also from God.”
“We will continue this road until the end, we will take the
responsibility, and we will make all the sacrifices,” Mr. Nasrallah told
his supporters on Saturday. “We will be victorious.”
A version of this article appeared in print on May 28, 2013, on page A8 of the New York edition with the headline: By Inserting Itself Into Syrian War, Hezbollah Makes Dramatic Gamble.
Ali Hashisho/Reuters
Supporters of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah
and relatives of one of its fighters, Saleh Ahmed Sabagh, at his funeral
last week in Sidon, Lebanon.
Hezbollah is betting its prestige and security by taking its followers
on a new mission to crush the Syrian rebellion, an effort that could
bring more power or defeat.
COPY http://www.nytimes.com
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