The reported firing of artillery from Russian territory is a sign
Vladimir Putin has escalated the Ukraine battle, says CNN's military
analyst Rick Francona.
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WHO ARE REBELS?
Police secure a refrigerated train
loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it
arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on Tuesday, July 22. The United
States says a surface-to-air missile took down the Boeing 777 on
Thursday, July 17, as it was flying over Ukraine from Amsterdam,
Netherlands, to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, killing all 298 people aboard.
Ukrainian officials have accused pro-Russian rebels of downing the jet,
but Russia blames Ukraine's recent military operations against the
rebels.
MH17 Investigators Look At All Clues
Francona: Putin's real end game in Ukraine
July 26, 2014 -- Updated 1555 GMT (2355 HKT)
Police secure a refrigerated train
loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it
arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on Tuesday, July 22. The United
States says a surface-to-air missile took down the Boeing 777 on
Thursday, July 17, as it was flying over Ukraine from Amsterdam,
Netherlands, to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, killing all 298 people aboard.
Ukrainian officials have accused pro-Russian rebels of downing the jet,
but Russia blames Ukraine's recent military operations against the
rebels.
HIDE CAPTION
Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- U.S. intelligence officials say they believe Russian artillery is firing into eastern Ukraine
- Rick Francona says the artillery firing is a significant escalation by the Russians
- He says Vladimir Putin's concern is to protect the pro-Russian rebels
- Francona: Ultimately, Putin may claim territory in eastern Ukraine to 'protect' rebels
Editor's note: Rick
Francona is a retired U.S. Air Force intelligence officer and CNN
military analyst. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely
those of the author.
(CNN) -- CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr reported Thursday
that the U.S. intelligence community has information that Russian
artillery is firing into eastern Ukraine. The artillery pieces shown in
the released footage are Russian M-46 130mm field guns with a range of a
little over 16 miles.
Why would the Russians do
this? Simple -- this fits into their plan to support pro-Russian
separatists in eastern Ukraine. The end game? I believe it is the
eventual absorption of that region into the Russian Federation.
The area in red on the
map is where much of the fighting between the Ukrainian government and
the pro-Russian rebels has been occurring over the last month. The
separatists have downed several Ukrainian military aircraft in this area
as the fighting raged. It is also the area in which Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in what most of us believe was a tragic case of mistaken identity and inept use of modern weaponry.
Over the past month, the
Ukrainians have been successful in pushing the rebels into a pocket near
the Russian border. One of the key weapons used by the Ukrainians is
the Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack/close air support jet fighter. It is
heavily armed and armored, meant to fly low and attack personnel and
vehicles with a variety of weapons. Flying low makes it vulnerable to
ground fire, however, especially shoulder-launched MANPADS, which are
the heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles in the rebels' arsenal (also
supplied by the Russians).
Rick Francona
To address some of the vulnerability to ground fire, pilots can fly higher than the effective ranges of MANPADS.
Defending against these
higher-flying aircraft requires a more advanced and capable air defense
system -- like the SA-11 (called the "Buk" system by the Russians). From
a variety of reports, it appears that the Russians provided a
Buk transporter-erector-launcher-and-radar (TELAR) to the separatists.
There is footage of an SA-11 TELAR being moved from this contested area
toward the Russian border immediately after MH17 was shot down.
MH17 Investigators Look At All Clues
Just three days before,
on June 14, the rebels shot down a Ukrainian military Antonov An-26
twin-turboprop cargo aircraft flying at an altitude of 21,000 feet.
Since this altitude is significantly above the range of the MANPADS in
either the Ukrainian or rebel arsenal, the obvious conclusion is that it
was downed with a more capable system: the SA-11 system supplied by the
Russians.
That event alone should
have set off alarm bells in the civil aviation community. The downing of
any aircraft operating at that altitude presented a different threat
scenario than would an area in which shoulder-fired missiles were the
only threat to aviation.
The subsequent -- and I
believe mistaken -- downing of MH17 forced the rebels and their Russian
sponsors to remove the SA-11 system from eastern Ukraine, although it is
obvious to most observers what had happened.
Without the improved air
defense umbrella provided by the SA-11, the separatists found
themselves again subject to effective Ukrainian air strikes. On
Wednesday, two Ukrainian Su-25 fighters were shot down
while operating at an altitude of 17,000 feet -- just above the range
of MANPADS, yet still at an altitude to deliver munitions with a degree
of accuracy.
The Ukrainians believe
the aircraft were downed with SA-11 missiles, but this time fired from
inside Russian territory. The SA-11 has enough range to reach not only
that altitude, but more than 20 miles into Ukrainian territory.
In a further
development, on Thursday it appeared that the Russians had also begun
fire support for the rebels, firing artillery from inside Russian
territory into eastern Ukraine. While the M-46 130mm field gun seen in
the photos can reach out to about 16 miles, the Russians have other
systems that can reach as far as 25 miles or more.
This represents a
significant change in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Providing material support -- the money, weapons and training required
to mount an effective insurgency -- to groups in foreign countries is a
recognized method of assisting groups that are either carrying out your
wishes or are furthering a foreign policy objective. We have done it
routinely. Afghanistan is a prime example.
Firing artillery rounds
into another sovereign nation with whom you are not at war is another
matter entirely. This would be an act of war, yes, but it underscores
just how seriously the Russians (read: President Vladimir Putin) view
the survival of the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine and their hopes that
their continued fighting will achieve a key foreign policy objective.
Putin believes these
rebels are his ticket to gradually acquiring eastern Ukraine without a
Russian military invasion. This use of artillery in the midst of the
international furor over the MH17 incident demonstrates his seriousness.
On Friday, the
Ukrainians reportedly responded to the Russian artillery fire with
mortar fire across the Russian border. This represents a significant
escalation of the tensions along that border -- what was once an
internal (albeit externally supported) conflict between Ukrainian
nationals and pro-Russian separatists now has the trappings of a
cross-border fight between two sovereign nations, one of which has
immensely greater military power.
Both sides are
calculating their next moves. From the Russian perspective, with its
approximately 15,000 troops deployed along the border, this artillery
fire is logical and almost obligatory support for ethnic Russians who
they believe would rather be part of the Russian Federation.
From the Ukrainian
perspective, this is Russian meddling in their internal affairs.
Military action from the Russian side will draw a Ukrainian armed
response. This is understandable, but the Ukrainians need to ensure that
they are not playing into Vladimir Putin's game plan. At some point,
the Russians may declare that they need to intervene to protect "Russian
nationals in eastern Ukraine."
Sound far-fetched? Remember Crimea.
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