VENEZUELA'S FUTURE
Days before his planned inauguration, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
lies in hospital "fighting for his health." CNN investigates what his
illness could mean for the country.
Days before his planned inauguration, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
lies in hospital "fighting for his health." CNN investigates what his
illness could mean for the country.
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Chavez battling respiratory failure |
With Chavez ill and inauguration near, uncertainty reigns in Venezuela
January 4, 2013 -- Updated 1841 GMT (0241 HKT)
Chavez absence sparks succession talk
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is scheduled to be sworn in for new term
- It's unclear whether the ailing leader will be able to attend January 10 ceremony
- Several key questions about the country's leadership are looming
- Chavez has not been seen publicly since he underwent cancer surgery last month
It's a different scene this year.
Chavez is scheduled to
take the oath of office for a new six-year term in just a few days, but
it's unclear whether he'll even be in the country. Chavez has been
recovering from surgery in Cuba, where he is undergoing cancer treatment. Top aides describe the president's condition as "complicated" and "delicate."
The uncertainty over what
will happen on inauguration day -- January 10 -- has roiled this
oil-rich country of more than 28 million people. Newspapers and airwaves
are full of questions about the future.
Oliver Stone on Hugo Chavez
Chavez suffers more complications
What happens if Chavez doesn't return?
What will happen if
Chavez loses his battle with cancer or becomes too incapacitated to
govern? What if he's too ill to attend the swearing-in ceremony?
Venezuela's constitution
provides clarity about will happen if Chavez dies or is declared
incapacitated -- both of those scenarios would lead to new presidential
elections. Debate rages, however, over what will happen if Chavez
remains in Cuba and does not take the oath of office in Caracas.
Here's a look at several
scenarios that could play out in the coming days, based on a reading of
Venezuela's constitution and interviews with experts:
If lawmakers declare Chavez permanently absent from office or he dies before January 10:
Vice President Nicolas Maduro
would finish out the Chavez term ending next week. Then the head of
Venezuela's National Assembly -- currently Diosdado Cabello -- would
assume the presidency. New elections would be held within 30 days.
If Chavez is
sworn in on January 10, but later dies or his illness forces lawmakers
to declare him permanently absent from office:
The vice president assumes the presidency. New elections must be held within 30 days.
If Chavez is unable to be sworn in before lawmakers on January 10:
Instead of taking the
oath of office before the National Assembly, the constitution says
Chavez can be sworn in before the country's Supreme Court.
The wording of the
constitution has opened a debate: Does an inauguration before the
Supreme Court have to happen on January 10? And does it have to occur in
Venezuela? Who runs the country in the meantime?
The constitution isn't
clear about whether a swearing-in ceremony before the Supreme Court must
take place on January 10, said Jesus Maria Casal, a professor of
constitutional law at Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas. "It
leaves a margin of interpretation," he said.
Cabello, the national
assembly president, is one of several top officials from Chavez's party
who argue that the inauguration can be postponed. And Felix Roque, a
constitutional lawyer, told state-run VTV this week that Chavez could be
sworn in before the Supreme Court justices inside the Venezuelan
Embassy in Cuba if necessary.
Other experts argue that the January 10 date is non-negotiable.
Constitutional lawyer
Jose Vicente Haro told CNN en Espanol that the inauguration must occur
on that day and cannot occur inside the embassy in Cuba because "it is
not Venezuelan territory."
The January 10 date "really matters," said Javier Corrales, a political science professor at Amherst College.
"The moment that you
enter into the idea that people can just easily change the inauguration
date, you are essentially governing outside of the constitution," he
said. "You are essentially abandoning the democracy."
Ultimately, Venezuela's
Supreme Court could be asked to decide, said Jennifer McCoy, director of
the Americas program at the Atlanta-based Carter Center.
If Chavez has not
returned to Venezuela and is unable to be sworn in on January 10, the
National Assembly may be forced to act, McCoy and Casal said. The
lawmakers may have no choice but to either declare Chavez permanently
absent, which would result in the national assembly president taking
over, or temporarily absent.
If lawmakers declare Chavez temporarily absent from office:
Another official will assume the presidency for up to 90 days. Lawmakers can renew that for another 90 days.
That means if lawmakers
choose to declare Chavez temporarily absent, it can buy them time -- up
to 180 days -- before they must decide whether Chavez is incapacitated.
But this scenario also
poses questions for debate: Who would assume the presidency during
Chavez's temporary absence? Is there a chance Chavez will recover?
The constitution says
the vice president should take over if a temporary absence is declared.
But if Chavez hasn't been sworn in, does he have a legitimate vice
president?
Some Chavez supporters
argue that because he was reelected, Chavez's administration
automatically continues into the new term. But Venezuela's opposition
argues that the current government ends with the term on January 10, and
therefore, the head of the National Assembly should assume the
presidency.
A larger question lawmakers will have to consider, experts say, is whether a temporary absence designation is appropriate.
"Is he physically able to handle a six-year term?" asked Casal, the constitutional law professor.
It's hard to say, said the Carter Center's McCoy.
"We don't know the prognosis," she said. "That's the real issue."
Journalist Osmary Hernandez contributed to this report from Caracas.
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