Palestinians' move for a U.N. status change is irrelevant, says one
commentator, and will neither provide the gains Palestinians hope to
achieve nor the disasters that opponents of the initiative predict.
WHAT IT MEANS
|
EFFECT ON ISRAEL
November 29, 2012 -- Updated 0203 GMT (1003 HKT)
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas seeking nonmember state status at U.N.
- Former diplomat Aaron Miller says the move is like a "Seinfeld" episode, a show about nothing
- He says it won't achieve a breakthrough and also won't likely do much harm
- Miller: The real story is about what happens on the ground between Israel, Palestinians
Editor's note: Aaron
David Miller is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International
Center for Scholars and served as a Middle East negotiator in Democratic
and Republican administrations. He is the author of the forthcoming
book "Can America Have Another Great President?" Follow him on Twitter.
(CNN) -- Thinking about Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' efforts this week to gain observer status as a nonmember state, I'm reminded of one of my favorite "Seinfeld" episodes.
Sitting in the Restaurant
-- the venue for so many of the best "Seinfeld" bits -- George and
Jerry conspire to produce a new sitcom, a show literally about nothing.
Not surprisingly, the idea comes to nothing as well, though the ironic
brilliance that the very show they want to produce already exists adds a
cool philosophical edge to the comedy.
Sadly, like the
"Seinfeld" episode, the Palestinian effort to gain entry into the U.N.
General Assembly as an observer state will come to nothing as well, even
if -- as is likely -- he succeeds.
Aaron David Miller
And that's the real
tragedy. Success will neither provide the gains Palestinians hope to
achieve nor the disasters that opponents of the initiative predict. In
the end, Abbas and the Palestinians will be no closer to statehood and
perhaps even a little further away.
Motives
Frustrated by the world's
seeming indifference to the Palestinian issue and weakened by his
inability to deliver anything, Abbas is desperate for an end-of-
the-year success of some kind.
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Blocked by Washington and
the U.N. Security Council last year from gaining admission as a state,
he's fallen back on the idea of observer status, an initiative that
can't be vetoed by the Americans and is likely to succeed in the General
Assembly.
Observer status is
largely a symbolic issue, but the Palestinian Authority might then have
access to other U.N.-affiliated agencies, including the International
Criminal Court, assuming that body would be willing to entertain
Palestinian claims and charges against Israel.
Indeed, Palestinian
desperation is accompanied by a Palestinian assessment that the
international arena offers a fertile field to score political points and
to pressure and isolate the Israelis. Call it a kind of global station
identification for an organization -- Fatah -- that's run out of
options.
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What matters is what happens on the ground
If the history of this
issue shows anything, it demonstrates that what really counts is what
happens between Israelis and Palestinians in the region. How sad and
ironic that it was Hamas' rockets, not Abbas' diplomacy, that put the
Palestinian issue on the map again.
And that's likely to be
the story again -- whether through violence or diplomacy. What counts is
whether Israelis and Palestinians can offer incentives and
disincentives to one another in currency that matters -- prisoners,
land, cease-fires, economic assistance, etc. It matters not a whit what
goes on in New York at the United Nations.
Abbas might well be the
best partner Israel will ever have, but if he can't deliver or if the
government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't want to deal
with him, well Houston, we have a problem. And at the moment, it is
Hamas -- not Abbas -- that counts more and the Gaza/Egypt arena, not the
U.N., that's more relevant.
Washington's calculations
Why not support the Abbas move? Doesn't the U.S. have a stake in bucking him up and reinforcing the two-state solution?
Obama's calculations in opposing the observer initiative are three.
First, philosophically,
ever since we've had Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the American
talking points have been pretty consistent. What matters is
negotiations, not moves, at the U.N. And even though there are no talks
now, the U.S. position is correct; the only thing that can produce two
states are two -- maybe three -- parties talking.
Second, there's no doubt
that Obama understands that observer status will only deepen the
adversarial relationship between Abbas and Netanyahu, give the Israelis
another reason not to negotiate and get the president into a fight with
Congress should he support the Palestinian bid. Indeed, that's the last
thing he needs at a time when he's wrangling with Congress about the
fiscal cliff and fighting with the Republicans about Susan Rice, the
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Finally, if he is going
to consider an initiative on the big Israeli-Palestinian issues during
his second term, he needs to build up credibility with the Israelis --
as he's done on the cease-fire in Gaza -- so he can be in a better
position to push and persuade them later.
An initiative about nothing
The observer state
initiative won't make the difference that either its advocates or
detractors imagine. Congress might further restrict aid to the
Palestinians at a time when the Palestinian Authority is in the red.
Abbas will look feckless -- and Hamas even stronger -- because in the
end, the results in New York will change nothing on the ground for the
better in the region. Indeed, Israel might well retaliate by withholding
tax revenues it collects for the Palestinian Authority under agreements
reached in the mid-1990s.
And sadly, unlike a
"Seinfeld" episode, what happens between Israelis and Palestinians
actually matters. For the time being, these two peoples will remain
suspended between a peace they cannot have and a confrontation neither
wants but might well come nonetheless. COPY http://edition.cnn.com/
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