: Conflict shifts balance of power in the Middle East
By Paula Newton, CNN
November 22, 2012 -- Updated 1425 GMT (2225 HKT)
What's changed from Israel-Hamas truce?
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy shows value of his leverage with Hamas
- Hamas gains more influence, leaving Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah on the sidelines
- Israel's Iron Dome proved its worth by foiling missiles many say came from Iran
(CNN) -- However crude the calculation, especially
amid all the civilian casualties, the winners and losers in the
Israel-Gaza conflict are already reshaping political alliances in the
Middle East.
Before the last rocket was fired, before U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the
cease-fire,
there was already a consensus building among stakeholders and analysts
that the events of the last week have transformed the fortunes of many
in the Middle East.
Egyptian President
Mohamed Morsy, clearly underestimated, deftly navigated what is a
minefield of competing interests, including those of his own country.
Egypt's role in Israel-Gaza cease-fire
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"For a civilian president
in Egypt perceived as a weak leader, he has, much to everyone's
surprise, delivered," says Aaron David Miller, a Middle East scholar at
the Woodrow Wilson Center.
Morsy proved he has the leverage necessary to bring
Hamas
to the table and get its leadership to agree to a cease-fire. Brokering
that deal has given him much needed political capital in both the Arab
world and the United States.
This was a qualified
victory as well for Israel and its tenacious Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu. Just months before an election, Netanyahu's government
targeted and killed Hamas' military leader, Ahmed al-Jaabari. Hundreds
of airstrikes on Gaza followed, but the real victory here might have
been the combat debut of Iron Dome, the U.S.-funded defense shield that
kept dozens of Hamas rockets from hitting Israeli civilians.
Ironically, though, Hamas has emerged emboldened from this conflict and its truce.
"Hamas has emerged stronger, it has consolidated its control over Gaza and it has gained now more legitimacy," explains Miller.
In the eyes of the
Palestinian people, the militant leaders of Gaza took on Israel more
boldly than ever before, firing rockets farther than ever before. And
they may yet manage to get an easing of the Gaza economic blockade if a
more comprehensive deal can be reached.
Inside Israel's drone system
Israel reacts to cease-fire
PLO reaction to cease-fire
"Look what they
accomplished; they, rather than (President Mahmoud) Abbas, has put the
Palestinian issue back on the international stage," says Miller.
Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction have lost much in this
conflict. He was supposed to be the moderate peace broker who could
finally forge a new deal with Israel. Now he cannot even claim to speak
for all Palestinians and has shown that he has no leverage with Hamas,
his archrival.
And then there's Iran,
on the outside looking in but always a player when it comes to Hamas.
Iran's hand now arguably has been weakened after this episode. The Iron
Dome shot hundreds of its missiles out the sky.
While Israel has always
accused Iran of smuggling weapons to Hamas through the Egyptian border,
Iran today implicitly confirmed it.
"Gaza is under siege, so
we cannot help them. The Fajr-5 missiles have not been shipped from
Iran. Its technology has been transferred (there) and are being produced
quickly," Mohamed Ali Jafari, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard,
is quoted as saying by the Iranian news agency ISNA.
The question now: If
Israel attacks Iran, can Iran still call on Hamas to retaliate with
missiles or have they been rendered ineffective with an ever-improving
Iron Dome?
In just a matter of
days, with one truce, allies and enemies in the region have shifted, and
this will certainly affect any future peace negotiations.
Morsy reassures Egyptians as protests grow
By the CNN Wire Staff
November 23, 2012 -- Updated 2218 GMT (0618 HKT)
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy
waves to supporters in front of the presidential palace in Cairo on
Friday, November 23. Thousands of ecstatic supporters gathered outside
the presidential palace to defend their leader against accusations from
rival protesters that he has become a dictator.
Egyptians protest over presidential powers
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- NEW: An apartment building burns near Tahrir Square
- NEW: The United States and Amnesty International express concern about Morsy's changes
- Demonstrators clash with president's supporters in Alexandria
- Mohamed Morsy says he takes "no particular side"
Cairo (CNN) -- Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy said
Friday that he works for the interest of the Egyptian people and takes
"no particular side" after protesters stormed his party's headquarters
in Alexandria, angry at what they view as an undemocratic power grab.
"I have dedicated myself
and my life for democracy and freedom," Morsy told hundreds of
supporters outside the presidential palace in Cairo. "The steps I took
are meant to achieve political and social stability."
As Morsy spoke,
demonstrators clashed with his supporters in the port city of
Alexandria. Thousands of demonstrators also congregated in Cairo's
Tahrir Square, making speeches and chanting against the president.
Protests and clashes erupt in Egypt
Air thick with tear gas in Tahrir Square
Egypt's Morsy grants himself more power
Egypt's role in Israel-Gaza cease-fire
"Leave, leave," they chanted. "The people want to topple the regime."
The scene inside the
square Friday night was mostly calm, with people milling and continuing
to chant as the chill set in. At two points near the square, however,
things were more violent.
The top floor of an
eight-story apartment building caught on fire Friday night, and
protesters said it was because of a police tear gas canister. Protesters
were on top of the building earlier in the day.
The building is on
Mohamed Mahmoud Street, about 100 yards from the square. It is across
the street from a school where police and protesters have been in a
standoff for five days, with police firing tear gas and protesters
throwing Molotov cocktails.
The charred, pockmarked school building is gutted after police threw chairs and desks at the protesters earlier in the week.
On a nearby street, in
front of the parliament building, thousands of protesters were throwing
rocks as police used their vehicles and tear gas to keep the crowd
contained to the square.
Earlier Friday,
protesters stormed the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood's
political wing in Alexandria, setting the building on fire, according to
Ahmed Sobea, spokesman for the Freedom and Justice Party.
Protesters are angry at a series of orders giving Morsy more power. His spokesman announced them Thursday night on state-run TV.
Morsy declared that any
laws or decrees he's made since he took office June 30, and any made
before a new constitution is put in place, are final and cannot be
overturned or appealed, his spokesman said.
Morsy also declared that
a 100-man council drafting a new constitution, plus the upper house of
parliament, cannot be dissolved. He granted the council two more months
to finish a draft constitution, meaning the panel has six months to
finish.
That means Morsy, who
this year took over legislative powers from the military council that
ruled after Hosni Mubarak's ouster, could have at least six months of
unchecked rule by decree. The draft constitution would go to a
referendum before it is finalized.
Some protesters are
calling Morsy a dictator, but the chief of Morsy's Cabinet responded
Friday by saying the president's focus is actually on democratic rule.
"He is trying to have
strong pillars for a steady progress toward democracy: a constitution, a
parliament, elected parliament," Mohamed Refaa al-Tahtawi said. "A
dictator would not try to have an elected parliament as soon as
possible."
He said the majority of people wanted Morsy to act firmly to effect political progress.
"This is a popular request, because otherwise, we would have split into some kind of anarchy," al-Tahtawi said.
"The president is not
really trying to monopolize power," he said. "And I would assure you
that in the coming few days, the opposition will fade away and calm
down."
Morsy also ordered
retrials and new investigations into the deaths of protesters during
last year's uprising against Mubarak, the spokesman said. That could
lead to a new prosecution of Mubarak, currently serving a life prison
term, and several acquitted officials who served under him.
The order for retrials
could please some Egyptians who've expressed disappointment that
security officers and others escaped legal consequences for the Mubarak
regime's crackdown on protesters last year.
He also fired Egypt's
general prosecutor, who had taken criticism from protesters in recent
months because they believe that prosecutions over demonstrators' deaths
were insufficient. Morsy swore in Talaat Ibrahim as the new general
prosecutor Thursday.
The U.S. State
Department expressed concern Friday about the developments, saying, "One
of the aspirations of the revolution was to ensure that power would not
be overly conentrated in the hands of any one person or institution."
It called for calm and dialogue.
The human rights group Amnesty International called on Morsy to repeal the amendments giving his decisions immunity.
"In a speech today,
President Mohamed Morsy said that he is acting to speed up reform and
secure the gains the uprising," Amnesty said in a statement. "However,
trampling on the rule of law is no way to guarantee human rights and to
secure justice for victims of the '25 January Revolution.' "
Morsy's moves come three
days after the start of violent protests in central Cairo, largely by
people angry at Morsy's government and the Muslim Brotherhood, the
Islamist movement to which Morsy belongs. There also is turmoil in the
constitution panel, which has been torn between conservatives wanting
the constitution to mandate that Egypt be governed by Islam's Sharia law
and moderates and liberals who want it to say that Egypt be governed by
principles of Sharia.
The announcements also
come a day after Morsy helped broker a cease-fire between Israel and
Hamas after an eight-day conflict between the sides.
Thousands of people have
protested in Cairo since Monday, and their chants for the toppling of
the regime are the first since Morsy took office.
One person has died and at least 80 have been injured in the protests, according to Mohamed Sultan, a Health Ministry spokesman.
Dozens of protesters
have been arrested, said Interior Minister Ahmed Gamal El Din. Cameras
have been installed around Tahrir Square, its side streets and the
Interior Ministry in an effort to determine the identities of people
attacking security forces, he announced.
Morsy was elected with
nearly 52% of the vote in a June runoff against former Prime Minister
Ahmed Shafik, taking legislative control from the Supreme Council of the
Armed Forces, which ruled after Mubarak was deposed.
The council had
dissolved parliament's lower house, saying parliamentary elections that
began in November 2011 were unconstitutional. Morsy indicated in June he
would call back parliament, but Egypt's high administrative court
upheld the dissolution.
Mubarak and his former
interior minister, Habib El Adly, were convicted and sentenced in June
to life in prison after a 10-month trial on charges relating to the
deaths of hundreds of protesters. Six former government aides were
acquitted.
Morsy, who still was running for office, said at the time that he would initiate new investigations if elected.
About 840 people died
and more than 6,000 others were injured in last year's 18-day uprising,
according to Amnesty International.
CNN's Jason Hanna and Mitra Mobasherat and journalists Ian Lee and Mohamed Fadel Fahmy contributed to this report.
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