June 10, 2013 -- Updated 1749 GMT (0149 HKT)
Iranian public opinion is so deafeningly silent that even media close to
Iran's regime has complained, a former newspaper editor writes. FULL STORY
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June 10, 2013 -- Updated 1333 GMT (2133 HKT)
Does the Iranian election matter?
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Iranians head to the polling booths on Friday June 14
- Polls show that 60% of voters are yet to decide which candidate to vote for
- Yet, Iranian public opinion on the elections is 'deafeningly silent,' writes Ali Reza Eshraghi
Ali Reza Eshraghi was a senior editor at several of Iran's reformist dailies. He is Iran's Project Manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) and a teaching fellow in the Department of Communication Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
(CNN) -- "Why does it seem that the elections are
only being held on Facebook? Why is there no commotion on the streets
yet? Where are the people?" This is a question that a journalist based
in Tehran posted on his Facebook account eight days before election day.
Iranian public opinion is
deafeningly silent, a silence that even the media close to the regime
has complained about. Unlike the four previous presidential elections
during which the streets were turned into lively and colorful carnivals
with the supporters of different candidates engaging in unending debates
and fervent speeches, this time it is only the walls of the streets
that have been covered with banners and posters.
Ali Reza Eshraghi
But if this situation is
sad it is also strange. Domestic opinion polls and a few foreign ones --
such as the Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS) -- show
that 60% to 75% of the people say they will participate in the
elections. The same polls show that 60% of these people have yet to
decide which candidate to vote for.
Under such circumstances,
one would expect individuals to come together in a public sphere and
have ongoing and meaningful discussions so that people could hear
different opinions. But this is not the case.
Of course, people in
taxis -- one of the most political public spheres in Iran -- talk about
the elections but there is no discussion. Less people are seen trying to
persuade or convince one another; therefore no political deliberation
is taking place. It is as if this time it is not the public per se but
individual observers who are deciding in their heads what to do on
election day.
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Contrary to what that
journalist from Tehran thought, compared to 2009 even online political
engagement is less, colder and more indifferent. In 2009, cyberspace was
a battle scene for the campaigns of candidates -- particularly
reformist candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who are
currently under house arrest.
The Facebook pages of
these candidates had tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands of likes
and each post received hundreds of comments every day. One could easily
see the accumulation of emotional energy in the interesting and untiring
debates of Facebook users, bloggers, and micro-bloggers.
The supporters of the two
Reformist candidates tried to persuade those advocating banning the
elections while at the same time engaged in passionate polemics over
which one of their candidates was better.
Such a momentum was
about to build up this year too. When former president Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani -- who is controversially considered the Islamic
regime's godfather figure and also a democracy catalyst -- registered
for candidacy one could see this built up energy begin to release.
The Iranian regime had
different political calculations for Rafsanjani's disqualification but
definitely one of them was to prevent the polarization of the election
and ultimately seeing it turn into a carnival -- like in 2009 -- which
was impossible to contain even after the election was over. This
indicates that the regime fears election campaigns more than the ballot
boxes.
Iranian state television
took measures to ensure that in the three rounds of televised election
debates there would be the least amount of confrontation among the eight
candidates, unlike in 2009. The first two debates were so boring that
it drew criticism not only from the candidates themselves but also the
presenters of the state TV. It was as if the soup had been served up too
cold.
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But the third debate --
held on Friday June 7 - suddenly became heated. Not only did the
reformist and "principalist" candidates [who back the Supreme Leader]
attack each other but the principalist ones -- who were supposed to be
in a coalition -- also went after one another. The candidates realized
that even in the restrictive debate channels they could navigate and
create waves. Still, with every debate, social media became a place for
individual posts full of mockery, sarcasm and personal revelations
rather than showing affect for a certain candidate.
While there are many
pages dedicated to the eight presidential candidates on Facebook -- none
of which are official -- their energy level is low. The Facebook pages
of the two candidates close to the Reformists are more active and have
daily posts.
But while commenting is
allowed, there is a very short trace of vernacular voices under the
posts. Among the five so-called principalist candidates, Mohammad Bagher
Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili are the most active on social media websites.
Jalili supporters who are mostly young radical idealists associated
with the cult known as Hezbollahi are digitally savvy enough.
Aside from a group of
websites supporting him, a hub, which has identified more than 1,800
bloggers from all over Iran who advocate for Jalili, has also been
launched. If the reformist and Green Movement -- which was formed after
the disputed 2009 elections -- supporters are present on Facebook the
principalist supporters of the regime have tried to "occupy" Google
Plus. This ironically shows that the digital attitude in Iran conforms
with political orientation to some extent.
What these two groups
have in common is that they both access these websites with difficulty
and using illegal anti-proxy software. But they have one main
difference: Principalist online activists monitor and follow their
opponents but they are less being seen.
The popularity of social
media and growing number of Internet websites in Iran causes fewer
individuals and groups to feel isolated or that they are in a minority.
But the downside is that anyone can have the illusion that they are in
the majority because they have less opportunity to step out of their
ghetto and be exposed to opposition and contesting voices.
The Iranian regime is
not that concerned about the ghettoization or fragmentation of public
spheres. The experience of the past election has taught the regime that
they must prevent the clash of these publics and their beliefs which
could cause the election atmosphere to become antagonistic.
This is why this year it
was decided that the spring semester of universities would be finished
sooner so that student bodies would not have the chance to have any
election activity -- which even drew criticism from the pro-regime
student bodies. Using Slavoj Zizek's analogy, Iran's 2013 presidential
election so far resembles drinking decaffeinated coffee, it tastes like
coffee but you are not supposed to get a caffeine buzz from it.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ali Reza Eshraghi.
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