June 20, 2013 -- Updated 2002 GMT (0402 HKT)
The clock is ticking for Edward Snowden, the man who leaked details of
secret U.S. surveillance programs. As FBI agents gather evidence against
him, Snowden is hiding out in Hong Kong on a temporary visa. FULL STORY
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HOLDER: LEAKS DAMAGED U.S. SECURITY
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'SNOWDEN IS DOOMED'
June 20, 2013 -- Updated 1048 GMT (1848 HKT)
Experts: China needs U.S., not Snowden
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Time is running out for Snowden before his 90-day Hong Kong tourist visa expires
- Experts say he may have already approached the UNHCR for refugee status
- U.S. authorities are yet to issue an arrest warrant for the 29-year-old leaker
- Snowden exposed details of secret NSA surveillance programs
As FBI agents gather
evidence against him, the 29 year old is racing to find a permanent
refuge while hiding out in Hong Kong on what's thought to be a 90-day
tourist visa which could expire in early August.
Experts say Snowden's visa is unlikely to be extended, as he would struggle to prove that his planned stay is temporary.
"Once the 90 days are
over, and unless his visa is extended, he's an illegal immigrant here
and could be picked up by the police for overstaying," said Professor
Simon Young, director of the Centre for Comparative and Public Law at
the University of Hong Kong.
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What becomes of Snowden
depends on a number of factors, not least when and if the U.S. submits a
"surrender request" with the Hong Kong government to pave the way for
Snowden's return to the U.S.
Scenario 1: He applies to be a refugee and is spirited out of the city within 90 days
Snowden arrived in the
city on May 20 and took refuge in a hotel where he made his revelations
to the British-based Guardian newspaper before checking out on June 10.
His whereabouts are unknown.
It's not clear whether
he has approached the local office of the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) -- the office has declined to comment
on individual cases -- but Young said it was one way Snowden could
extend his stay.
"The UNHCR is duty-bound
to determine if he's a mandate refugee. If by some miracle they're able
to do that within 90 days and say that he is a refugee, and secondly
are able to find a place that will take him, then he could be off to
that place," Young said.
Speaking hypothetically,
a protection officer for the UNHCR in Hong Kong said that Snowden would
not be given preferential treatment. "We prioritize older cases,"
Nazneen Farooqi said, according to the South China Morning Post. Claims
through the UNHCR have been known to take years.
Scenario 2: He finds a country willing to take him
Snowden has already
sounded out Iceland for a potential asylum claim, according to WikiLeaks
spokesman, Icelandic journalist Kristinn Hrafnsson.
Hrafnsson told CNN he
was asked by an intermediary, who he was "100% certain" was acting on
behalf of Snowden, to approach the Icelandic government. Hrafnsson said
he contacted two offices -- the interior ministry and the prime
minister's office -- and the response was less than welcoming.
"They pointed to the
legal code and the understanding, for example, that the asylum seeker
must be in the jurisdiction before he can apply for asylum," Hrafnsson
said.
They pointed to the legal code and the understanding, for example,
that the asylum seeker must be in the jurisdiction before he can apply
for asylum.
Kristinn Hrafnsson, WikiLeaks spokesman
Kristinn Hrafnsson, WikiLeaks spokesman
However, he added that
he did not consider what he called the ministers' "informal" replies as a
final answer. "This is a matter not just for the government in Iceland
but also the Icelandic parliament and an important issue to be debated
among the general public."
When asked in a live chat Monday on the Guardian website why
he didn't fly direct to Iceland, Snowden said he feared he'd be
intercepted en route so he chose "a country with the legal framework to
allow me to work without being immediately detained."
He added that "Iceland
could be pushed harder, quicker, before the public could have a chance
to make their feelings known, and I would not put that past the current
U.S. administration."
A number of other
countries have been floated as a possible refugee for the NSA leaker who
has acknowledged that he can never go home.
Early speculation
centered on potential deal with China, however an opinion piece
published Thursday in Communist Party newspaper, The Global Times,
suggests that Beijing may be best advised to stay out of it. "China
should make good use of the 'one country, two systems' practice with
regards to Hong Kong, and let the Hong Kong authorities deal with
Snowden in accordance with their own laws," the author wrote.
Another opinion piece in Communist Party paper The People's Daily
suggested that Beijing should side with public opinion. "The
consequences of extraditing Snowden back to the U.S. would be more
troublesome than the alternative, because the local reaction would bring
more trouble to Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland. China's growing
power is attracting people to seek asylum in China. This is unavoidable
and should be used to accumulate moral standing."
Scenario 3: His visa expires and he's arrested by Hong Kong police
If Snowden is still in
Hong Kong when his visa expires, he'd most likely make an asylum claim,
if he hasn't already gone to the UNHCR.
"If he was to make an
asylum claim at that point in time then they wouldn't go ahead with the
overstaying prosecution -- it would be suspended -- and then the asylum
process kicks in," Young said.
If Snowden sought asylum
in Hong Kong, it's likely he'd file a torture claim, based on Articles 1
and 3 of the 1984 U.N. "Convention against Torture and Other Cruel,
Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment," Young said.
However, Jo Renshaw, an immigration lawyer at Turnpin & Miller, said torture claims were hard to prove.
"The threshold for
'cruel, inhuman and degrading' is pretty high particularly when the
country in question is the U.S. It has succeeded in relation to Russian
prison conditions. It is arguable in the light of Bradley Manning but
you would need to find a country which is willing to take on the U.S.
and say that its treatment of prisoners breaches Article 3 of the
European Convention on Human Rights," she said.
The threshold for 'cruel, inhuman and degrading' is pretty high particularly when the country in question is the U.S.
Jo Renshaw, immigration lawyer
Jo Renshaw, immigration lawyer
Bradley Manning, the
U.S. soldier accused of providing classified information to website
WikiLeaks, has claimed he has been mistreated in custody. In 2011, Manning's lawyer filed a formal complaint alleging
his client had been stripped, denied his glasses and confined to a cell
for 23 hours a day with no pillow, sheets or personal items.
Manning is appearing before a court-martial this week after pleading guilty to 10 of 22 charges against him and faces up to 20 years in jail.
Scenario 4: He makes a run for it...
Being spirited away on a
plane or a boat might be attractive options for Snowden to escape Hong
Kong authorities, if his visa is about to expire and the U.S. has yet to
make its move.
Young said until the
U.S. files an arrest warrant -- or even a provisional one -- there's no
onus on carriers to report Snowden's presence if he turns up at a
departure gate.
"It may well be that
informally that there are channels 'that these are individuals, if you
do come across them let us know please' but nothing that obligates them
to do this," he added.
CNN asked a number of
airlines whether they've been asked by authorities report Snowden.
Cathay Pacific said in a statement: "For privacy and security reasons,
it would be inappropriate for us to discuss communications, if any,
received from governmental agencies. It would be up to the sending
agency to share the information it deems appropriate." Qantas and Virgin
Atlantic gave a similar response.
If Snowden was able to
make it onto a vessel, U.S. authorities would be limited in their
ability arrest him, even if they were on board, said Dr Zhao Yun,
associate professor at the University of Hong Kong.
"That would be a
violation of the sovereignty of the airline," Zhao said, adding that the
country where the airline is registered has jurisdiction over the
flight. The same applies for ships, except in the case of piracy.
However, he said if the
alleged crime was serious enough -- for example, crimes against
humanity, torture, slavery and hijacking -- universal jurisdiction kicks
in.
"Crimes subject to
universal jurisdiction are considered crimes against all (the entire
world community)," he said, adding "In this sense, I do not think
universal jurisdiction shall apply in (Snowden's) case."
Scenario 5: U.S. issues an arrest warrant and he's detained
This could be the worst
case scenario for Snowden. If the U.S. issues a surrender warrant,
Snowden could be detained by authorities in Hong Kong, after first being
given the go-ahead by the territory's chief executive to arrest him.
Once detained, Young
said Snowden would likely appear in an open court where a magistrate
would decide whether there is enough evidence to commit him to trial.
Based on that decision,
Hong Kong's chief executive would then decide whether to approve the
surrender order and send Snowden back to the U.S.
Under Hong Kong law, the
surrender order could be blocked if it appears that the offense is of a
political nature or if the alleged offender might be punished on the
basis of his or her political opinions.
However, other
considerations would be the 1996 treaty between the U.N. and Hong Kong
which takes precedence over the relevant law and includes a clause on
"offenses involving the unlawful use of computers," Young said.
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