June 18, 2013 -- Updated 2051 GMT (0451 HKT)
Afghan forces formally took over security responsibilities for their
country from NATO-led troops on Tuesday, marking a key transition in the
long and costly war. What does it mean for Afghanistan and the U.S.? FULL STORY
June 18, 2013 -- Updated 1831 GMT (0231 HKT)
Uncertainty marks Afghan handover
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- NEW: Afghanistan's High Peace Council says there is no place for violence during talks
- NATO-led troops transfer security responsibility to Afghan forces
- Doubts remain about whether Afghan troops are up to the task
- There are fears the country could revert back to civil war
NATO-led troops
transferred security responsibility to Afghan forces. The United States
and an Afghan government group dedicated to peace and reconciliation
will hold talks with the Taliban militant group in Qatar.
"I wish a long-term peace in Afghanistan," Afghan President Harmid Karzai told his troops at a handover ceremony in Kabul.
But a senior U.S.
official said reconciliation is likely to be "long, complex and messy"
because trust between Afghans and the Taliban is extremely low.
The latest moves could
portend a hopeful chapter in the long and costly Afghan conflict. What
do these developments mean for Afghanistan and the United States? Here
are some key questions that will be asked in the coming months:
Pakistan's pivotal role in Taliban talks
Afghan government takes over security
Inside a firefight with the Taliban
Born solely to serve others
1. Are the Afghan troops up to the task?
There are certainly doubts.
A Pentagon review in December found that only one of 23 Afghan army brigades was capable of functioning on its own.
Meanwhile, literacy rates are low, desertion rates are high, and many deserters have joined the insurgency. There also have been a troubling number of "green-on-blue" attacks: Afghan troops attacking their American comrades.
But then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta spoke positively about the progress Afghans had made in growing their army, reducing violence and becoming more self-sufficient. At the time, Afghan forces were leading nearly 90% of operations across the country.
"We're on the right path to give (Afghanistan) the opportunity to govern itself," Panetta said.
Karzai has said he welcomes the U.S. troop withdrawal and insists his army can defend the country against the Taliban.
"It is exactly our job to deal with it, and we are capable of dealing with it," Karzai said during an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour.
2. What are the conditions for peace?
Karzai seems eager to resume stalled peace talks with the Taliban and include them in the political process.
The High Peace Council
of Afghanistan -- a government group devoted to reconciliation and peace
-- will go to Qatar and participate in talks with the Taliban, Karzai
said Tuesday.
The United States will
have a first formal meeting soon in Doha, Qatar, after the Afghans and
Taliban huddle, senior administration officials said. The meetings
coincide with the Taliban opening an office in the Gulf nation of Qatar.
For their part, the
Taliban told reporters in Doha on Tuesday that they want to improve
relations with the world. They are calling themselves the "Islamic
Emirate of Afghanistan."
The Taliban back
"supporting a political process and a peaceful resolution that will
bring an end to the occupation in Afghanistan and establishing an
Islamic and independent government in it" and forging "true security," a
representative said.
At the same time, the Taliban representative advocated the idea of political resistance.
The United States and
Afghanistan have several conditions the Taliban ultimately need to meet
for a peace deal -- breaking ties with al Qaeda, ending violence and
accepting the Afghan Constitution, including sections on women's rights,
senior administration officials told reporters Tuesday.
Conditions also were
outlined by the High Peace Council, with one senior official saying
there was no place for violence while talks are ongoing. "We are hoping
the (number of) Taliban attacks go down or even stop after we start
talks," the official said.
The first meeting
between the United States and Taliban is expected to be an exchange of
agendas and what each side wants to talk about, followed by another
meeting in a week or two.
One of the
administration officials said foremost on the U.S. mind is hearing how
the Taliban are going to cut ties with al Qaeda and urging them to talk
seriously with the Afghan government. Exchange of detainees are expected
to be on the agenda -- including Bowe Bergdahl -- the U.S. soldier believed to be in militant captivity.
"Peace is not at hand," another senior official cautioned, adding there is "no guarantee this will happen quickly if at all."
3. How big a threat do the Taliban still pose?
The Taliban are still "resilient and determined," according to a recent Pentagon report, and pose a major security threat.
The Taliban continue to carry out high-profile attacks in the capital, Kabul, even targeting the Afghan Supreme Court during a suicide attack in June. Another strike targeted a building near Kabul airport.
On Tuesday, a suicide
bomber attacked the convoy of Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq, a member of
parliament, killing three people and wounding 21 others. Three
bodyguards were among the injured. Mohaqiq -- a Shiite and an ethnic
Hazara -- is a member of Afghanistan's political opposition.
The Taliban regime in
Afghanistan was sheltering al Qaeda when the terror network launched
attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001. The next month,
the United States cranked up military operations that led to the
toppling of the Taliban government.
Ever since, international forces have been fighting radical Islamic militants in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan.
4. What are the biggest challenges?
The main fear among
Afghans is that the country could revert to another civil war once the
United States withdraws its combat troops.
"Some people we've
spoken to sort of take it for granted that there's going to be a civil
war when the United States leaves," said CNN's Erin Burnett on a trip last year to Afghanistan. "It happened before when the Soviet Union left (in 1989)."
Above all, Karzai said
the Afghan army needs the tools to battle the insurgents, namely more
equipment and firepower. He came to the Pentagon in January with a wish list asking for more helicopters, drones and other hardware, according to a senior defense official.
"We need an air force.
We need air mobility," Karzai told Amanpour. "We need proper mechanized
forces. We need, you know, armored vehicles and tanks and all that."
Retired Army Gen.
Stanley McChrystal, once America's top commander in Afghanistan, said
the Afghan people are "terrified because they think they have something
to lose."
"There has been progress
made," he said. "But they're afraid that if we completely abandon them
in 2014, as they perceive we did in 1989, (things) would all go back."
5. What support will the United States and allies provide?
American forces, now at about 66,000, are expected to dip to 32,000 by the end of the year and further throughout 2014.
The plan is to withdraw all combat troops but keep a residual force in the country to help train Afghans and carry out counterterrorism operations when needed.
The size of that force is still being discussed.
Gen. John Allen, the
former commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, recommended between
6,000 and 15,000 troops. But that figure was lowered to a range between 2,500 and 9,000, according to a defense official.
The United States and
NATO have pledged to continue to support and train Afghan forces in what
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen deems a "new
relationship," starting in 2015.
Acknowledging that there is still much to do in the interim 18 months, Rasmussen said, "Today, our shared goal is in sight."
CNN's Ed Payne and Roba Alhenawi contributed to this report.
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