Power Struggles in Middle East Exploit Islam’s Ancient Split
Bahrain, the first place where Arab Spring
protests degenerated into Sunni-Shiite feuds, now appears to have been a
signal of what was to come in the region.
RIFFA,
Bahrain — Black and yellow concrete barricades block the roads entering
this wealthy Sunni enclave, where foreign-born Sunni soldiers in
armored personnel carriers guard the mansions of the ruling family and
the business elite.
Beyond
the enclave are impoverished villages of Shiites, about 70 percent of
Bahrain’s more than 650,000 citizens, where the police skirmish nightly
with young men wielding rocks and, increasingly, improvised weapons like
homemade guns that use fire extinguishers to shoot rebar.
Their
battles are an extension of sectarian hostilities nearly as old as
Islam. But they are also a manifestation of a radically new scramble for
power playing out across the region in the aftermath of the United
States invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring revolts.
This
island nation off the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia was the first place
where Arab Spring demands for equal citizenship and democratic
governance degenerated into a sectarian feud,
and at first it seemed to be an anomaly. But Bahrain’s experience now
appears to have been a harbinger of what was to come as centuries old
but newly inflamed rivalries between Sunni and Shiite Muslims tear apart
much of the region — threatening to erase the borders of states like
Syria and Iraq, destabilizing Bahrain and Lebanon, and accelerating a
regional contest for power and influence between Shiite Iran and Sunni
Saudi Arabia.
Scholars
and activists say that the sectarian violence gripping the Middle East
is not simply the unleashing of religious rivalries once suppressed by
the secular autocrats who ruled the region. Instead, they say, the
religious resentments have been revived and exploited in a very earthly
power struggle.
“There
are forces that keep the tension alive in order to get a bigger piece
of the cake,” said Sheikh Maytham al-Salman, a Shiite Muslim scholar who
was detained for nine months and tortured by the Bahraini police in
2011 because of his support for the uprising.
Pearl
Square, where demonstrators staged a weekslong sit-in three years ago,
has now been turned into a permanent military camp, its namesake statue
demolished, in a grim memorial of the day in March 2011 when vehicles
and troops from the neighboring Sunni monarchies rolled across the
causeway from Saudi Arabia to crush the Shiite-dominated movement for
democracy.
Caspian Sea
TURKEY
Tehran
SYRIA
IRAQ
Mediterranean Sea
Qusayr
Beirut
IRAN
LEBANON
Damascus
Baghdad
ISRAEL
Karbala
SYRIAN DESERT
JORDAN
EGYPT
KUWAIT
Persian Gulf
SAUDI ARABIA
BAHRAIN
Riffa
Predominantly Shiite
(Includes Alawites and
other offshoots)
Predominantly
Sunni
Sunni/Shiite
mixed
Other
religions
Desert areas
QATAR
Once
aroused, however, sectarian wrath can be unpredictable and hard to
control, even boomeranging against those who might have sought to
exploit it. From the first stirring of Arab Spring protest in Syria, for
example, the government of President Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian
backers sought to portray the movement as a sectarian power grab by
certain Sunni extremists, in order to rally Christians and other
religious minorities against it. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-led
Persian Gulf states sponsored satellite broadcasts firing up Sunni
resentment of Shiite Iran and the Shiite-offshoot Alawite sect to which
the Assads belong. And Sunni Arabs in Gulf monarchies funneled aid to the Sunni rebels as they grew increasingly violent.
Now,
the Syrian revolt has fulfilled some of the worst sectarian fears — and
threatened the security not only of the Assad family but also of Iran
and Saudi Arabia. The most vicious Sunni extremists among the rebels,
the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, have seized a broad expanse of
territory across both states and boasted of executing hundreds of
Shiites and destroying their mosques.
Its
rampage has brought it to the doorsteps of both the Iraqi government in
Baghdad, an Iranian ally, and the Saudi Arabian monarchy, which has
long feared such extremists as a threat to its own power at home.
Across
the region, though, the resurgence of Sunni-Shiite sectarian
hostilities has followed a pattern: The weakening of the old states
leads anxious citizens to fall back on sectarian identity, while
insecure rulers surround themselves with loyalists from their clans and
denominations, systematically alienating others, often on sectarian
lines. In the case of American allies like Bahrain and Iraq, analysts
say, the United States and other Western powers turned a blind eye to
the excesses and sectarianism of rulers they supported.
Hammering
on those internal cracks, the region’s two geopolitical heavyweights,
the Shiite theocracy in Iran and the Sunni monarchy in Saudi Arabia,
have sought to protect their interests and influence by funneling
support to clerics, satellite networks, political factions and armed
groups squaring off along sectarian lines.
“Great
powers gravitate to clients they can support,” said Vali Nasr, dean of
the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
and a scholar of the region.
Saudi
Arabia and Iran, he said, each employ a sectarian foreign policy to
pursue classically secular objectives. “They play the game of great
power politics and the chess pieces they choose inflame the
sectarianism,” he said.
For
the United States, the stakes include the stability of the region, the
security of its allies and oil partners, and the risk that the regional
power struggle might complicate attempts to broker a deal with Iran to
limit its nuclear program.
But
Washington has also confounded many in the region by maintaining
alliances on both sides of the sectarian struggle, with Sunnis in Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain and in the Syrian opposition, but with the Shiites in
power in Baghdad. In Bahrain, the United States effectively assented as
the Saudi military helped crush the largely peaceful uprising by the
Shiite majority. In Iraq, rights groups say Washington stayed silent
amid mounting evidence that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki was
excluding the Sunni minority from power and condoning abuses against
them.
Citing
such conflicting entanglements, conspiracy theorists in the Arab media
now often suggest that Washington may welcome the sectarian mayhem. “It
is becoming the dominant narrative,” said Lina Khatib, director of the
Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
Secretary of State John Kerry recently flew to Baghdad
to urge Iraq’s Shiite-led government to share power and eschew
sectarianism, hoping that may relieve some of the resentment that has
made part of the Sunni population receptive to the extremists.
In
Bahrain, Shiite opposition leaders rolled their eyes. “We need to hear a
similar message,” said Khalil al-Marzooq, a deputy chairman of
Bahrain’s main Shiite opposition party, al-Wefaq, who was recently
released from prison.
The
split between Sunnis and Shiites began in the seventh century, after
the death of the Prophet Muhammad. The dominant faction, which became
Sunnis, argued that leadership should pass to Muhammad’s companion and
father-in-law, Abu Baker. The faction that became Shiites argued for
Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law, Ali.
Today
Shiites comprise only about 15 percent of the world’s 1.6 billion
Muslims, although they form the majorities in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and
Azerbaijan and a plurality in Lebanon.
The
theological differences are comparable to those dividing Catholics and
Protestants, such as disagreements about the authority of clerics or the
details of prayer rituals. Sunnis and Shiites have often lived together
amicably and formed political alliances; intermarriage has been common.
But many Sunnis across the region still suggest Shiites are not true Muslims, while Shiites grumble of centuries of persecution.
In
Iraq, the latest flash point, many polls conducted over the 11 years
since the United States invasion consistently found that majorities of
Sunnis and Shiites supported coexistence, describing their country as
“mostly unified” instead of “mostly divided.”
But
as Mr. Maliki has monopolized power and as rights abuses grew in recent
years, national unity weakened. In a spring 2012 poll conducted by the
Washington-based National Democratic Institute, the percentage of Iraqis
who said it was a “mostly divided” country jumped by 12 percentage
points from the previous year, to 35 percent. Among Sunni Arabs, the
portion who called it “mostly divided” doubled from the previous year,
to 58 percent.
In
Bahrain, when thousands of demonstrators marched to Pearl Square in
defiance of the government in February 2011, most were Shiites. But one
of the most visible leaders was Ibrahim Sharif, a Sunni Muslim known as
an activist against government corruption and as the general secretary
of Bahrain’s main liberal party.
He
was also one of the first leaders arrested, abducted from his home by
the police in the first hours after midnight on March 17, just after
police stormed Pearl Square. Mr. Sharif “broke their story” that the
uprising was a Shiite plot, his wife, Farida Ghulam Ismail, said in an
interview. He remains in jail on charges of treason.
By
the time of his arrest and the crackdown, the mostly Shiite protesters
had increasingly taken up Shiite chants, adding to the fears of Sunnis.
Bahrain’s government accused its Shiite opponents of holding weapons,
plotting the violent overthrow of the monarchy and taking leadership and
support from the government of Iran.
Opposition
leaders called the charges fear-mongering, but since then there have
been signs of both growing violence and Iranian involvement. In
December, the Bahraini authorities intercepted an Iraqi ship sailing
toward the island with Syrian and Iranian weapons. A Shiite group
calling itself the Ashtar Brigade has reportedly claimed responsibility
for attacks on security forces, including a bombing that killed two
Bahraini police officers and an officer from the United Arab Emirates.
Another officer died Saturday after being wounded in what Bahraini
officials called a terrorist attack.
Many
in the Bahraini opposition parties now say their only hope is a
regional peace involving both Saudi Arabia and Iran, which might
alleviate the ruling family’s fears of any concession to the Shiite
majority.
But
optimists note that tensions in Bahrain have not yet escalated into
communal violence between Sunni and Shiite civilians. Some opposition
leaders argue that while Bahrain could become the next powder keg to
explode, it still has a chance to become a model of power-sharing.
“Why wait until there is a real disaster?” asked Mr. Marzooq, of Wefaq, the main Shiite party.
A version of this news analysis appears in print on July 6, 20
Militant Leader Makes Rare Appearance in Iraq
BAGHDAD
— Wearing a black turban and black robes, the leader of the
self-proclaimed Islamic state that stretches across eastern Syria and
much of northern and western Iraq made a startling public appearance,
his first in many years, at a well-known mosque in the Iraqi city of
Mosul, according to a video released on Saturday whose contents were
confirmed by experts and witnesses.
Until
then, there had been very few photographs on the Internet of the
insurgent known as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.
But on Friday he delivered a public sermon in a city once under
American control with an audacity that even Osama bin Laden never tried.
ISIS released a 21-minute video of the sermon on Saturday.
Previously
he had been all but invisible, seemingly reluctant to risk a public
appearance as his group grew in strength and he became the United
States’ second-most sought-after terrorist, after Ayman al-Zawahri, the
leader of Al Qaeda. The United States government has offered a $10
million reward for information leading to his capture.
Interactive Graphic
A Rogue State Along Two Rivers
The victories gained by the militant group calling
itself the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria were built on months of
maneuvering along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which define a region
known as the cradle of civilization.
But
on Friday at the pulpit of Mosul’s Great Mosque, Mr. Baghdadi appeared
confident, calm and measured as he urged the faithful to fast during
Ramadan and undertake jihad. He also asserted his position as caliph, or
spiritual leader, of the Muslim faithful, calling himself “Khalifa
Ibrahim,” or caliph Abraham, a reference to the prophet Abraham, who
appears in the Quran. Mr. Baghdadi’s militant group declared its territory in Iraq and Syria a caliphate, or Islamic state, on June 29.
“Do
jihad in the cause of God, incite the believers and be patient in the
face of this hardship,” he admonished the congregation. “If you knew
about the reward and dignity in this world and the hereafter through
jihad, then none of you would delay in doing it.”
ISIS militants took over
Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, on June 10, after the Iraqi Army
fled. ISIS fighters patrol the streets, although far fewer than in the
first days after the takeover, and while some people have gone back to
work, the city is far from normal. The congregation at the mosque in the
video had been ordered to come to Friday Prayer, said a man who was
there but who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution.
When
worshipers arrived at the mosque, they were searched thoroughly by
armed ISIS fighters, and the congregants were told where and how to sit,
said the man. No one was allowed to leave until 10 minutes after the
end of Mr. Baghdadi’s sermon, the man said.
The
sermon was no extemporaneous cameo, but a carefully crafted speech in
which he asked for the congregation’s support and struck an almost
humble and pious tone that was difficult to square with the group’s
tactics on the ground, which include kidnapping for ransom, summary
executions and beheadings.
“I was placed as your caretaker, and I am not better than you,” he said, according to a translation by SITE Intelligence Group,
which monitors extremist activity online. “So if you found me to be
right, then help me, and if you found me to be wrong, then advise me and
make me right.”
“I
do not promise you, as the kings and rulers promise their followers and
congregation, luxury, security and relaxation; instead, I promise you
what Allah promised his faithful worshipers,” he said.
ISIS: Behind the Group Overrunning Iraq
Background on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Islamist group that gained control of the second-largest city in Iraq.
Video Credit By Christian Roman on
Publish Date June 10, 2014.
Image CreditUncredited/Militant Website, via Associated Press
Mr.
Baghdadi’s address appeared to be aimed at several audiences, analysts
said. He seemed to be appealing to followers of other militant groups in
Syria and Iraq to join ISIS, and also to Iraqi Sunnis to look to him as
a leader rather than the Iraqi government.
Daniel
Benjamin, a senior counterterrorism official in the State Department
from 2009 to 2012, said that if the video was authentic, Mr. Baghdadi’s
appearance would be a “remarkable event.”
“If
Baghdadi has emerged from hiding, it suggests that he is adopting a
posture as a different kind of leader from Osama bin Laden, Ayman
al-Zawahri and the like, and by implication a greater one,” said Mr.
Benjamin, now a scholar at Dartmouth College. “He is demonstrating that
ISIS has what they didn’t: territory that is secure, and he is its
ruler.”
“As
a public demonstration of leadership, you’d have to go back to April
1996, when Mullah Omar appeared on top of a building in Kandahar in a
cloak that was said to belong to the prophet and was declared commander
of the faithful,” Mr. Benjamin added.
Peter
Neumann, a professor of security studies at Kings College London, said
the appearance was “a sign of confidence” and a “message to all these
other jihadists, this is really happening, it’s not going to go away
anytime soon.”
The
video was still being authenticated late Saturday by the Central
Intelligence Agency. A spokesman for the Iraqi Interior Ministry, Brig.
Gen. Saad Maan, told Reuters that the ministry thought it was fake, but
Mr. Neumann said he had little doubt that it was authentic, in part
because ISIS would have little to gain from a falsified video. An
American official who spent extensive time in Iraq said that the man in
the video appeared to be Mr. Baghdadi.
Two
people who were in the mosque when Mr. Baghdadi spoke said they had no
question it was him. But they had never seen him before, so their
certainty was based primarily on how the ISIS fighters treated him.
Also
on Saturday, official Iranian news agencies reported that an Iranian
pilot had been killed in fighting in Iraq, which appeared to be the
first confirmation of the deployment of Iranian forces there. There have
been unconfirmed reports that Iran had sent military advisers and jets
to Iraq.The Islamic Republic News Agency said that the pilot, Col.
Shoja’at Alamdari, was killed in Samarra defending a Shiite shrine. The
Fars News Agency said that he was a member of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps.
The
agencies provided no further details about his death, and it was not
clear whether he died on the ground or in the air. There have been no
reports of planes shot down by the rebels.
An Iraqi employee of The New
York Times contributed reporting from Mosul, Michael R. Gordon from
Washington, and Thomas Erdbrink from Tehran.
copy http://international.nytimes.com/
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