24 October 2012
Last updated at 23:57 GMT
Olympics effect to boost UK GDP
The Olympics are expected to help the economy show growth in
the third quarter of the year, suggesting the double-dip recession is
over.
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Olympics expected to have boosted UK GDP
Figures for the UK economy due on Thursday morning are expected to show growth after nine months of recession.Gross domestic product (GDP) figures, measuring the value of everything produced in the economy in the three months from July to September, will have been boosted by the Olympic Games.
Ticket sales for the Olympics and Paralympics will be included.
The Office for National Statistics' (ONS) first estimate is expected to show growth of about 0.7%.
It will also be flattered by comparison with the previous three months, because the second quarter had an extra public holiday as part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations in in June.
The ONS said that the extra day off had knocked 0.5% off economic growth in the second quarter.
It also said ticket sales would add about 0.2% to GDP.
So excluding the Olympic and Jubilee effects, growth seems to have been broadly flat, as it has for some time, showing either small amounts of growth or small contractions.
"Putting aside the quarterly swings over the past two years, the economy has been and remains 'flat on its back' with stagnant growth," said Rob Donaldson from the accountants Baker Tilly.
In a speech on Tuesday, Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned he expected that to carry on.
"The zig-zag pattern of quarterly growth rates of GDP that we have seen this year is likely to continue," he said.
He also pointed out that despite the expected end of the double-dip recession, GDP was still "barely higher than two years ago", which means it is still well below pre-recession levels.
Volatile figures Of the three months covered by the third-quarter GDP figures, we already have almost all of the figures the ONS uses for July and some of the figures for August.
The service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of the UK economy, grew by 1.1% in July compared with June.
The index of production, which covers most of the rest of the economy, including manufacturing, mining and energy, grew 2.9% in July compared with June.
Much of that increase was put down to the effect of the extra public holiday, and the official figures showed a contraction of 0.5% in August.
The volatile figures for the construction industry showed 2.1% growth in July compared with June and a 0.9% contraction in August.
Official figures on the service sector in August are not yet available, but the influential purchasing managers' index of the sector from Markit/CIPS rose to 53.7 in the month, up from 51 in July. Any number above 50 indicates growth.
So the figures so far support the case for modest growth in the third quarter, but the fourth quarter may struggle to overcome the comparison with the Olympic-boosted third quarter.
That means that while the UK is likely to be out of recession, commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, there is a real danger of further contraction in the fourth quarter of the year.
Olympians have 2012 medals stolen
Olympic rower Alex Partridge says he is "very upset" as he and hockey player Hannah Macleod have their London 2012 medals stolen. BBC Sport- GB clinch bronze in men's eight BBC Sport
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British women take hockey bronze
BBC Sport
Olympic medals stolen from Alex Partridge and Hannah Macleod
Olympic rower Alex Partridge says he is devastated after he and hockey player Hannah Macleod had their London 2012 bronze medals stolen.They were out celebrating with other Team GB members in the capital after a Buckingham Palace reception on Tuesday when the medals went missing.
Partridge's medal was inside a blazer which was taken in the early hours.
The 31-year-old told BBC Sport: "It's very, very upsetting. It would mean everything to me to get them back."
Partridge, whose bronze in the men's eight followed a silver medal at the Beijing Olympics in 2008, added: "I worked for 12 years of my life to try to achieve something at the Olympic Games and that's what I've got to show for it.
"While we were out and dancing away, I noticed I'd misplaced my blazer. In the morning I thought one of the other Olympians must have picked it up by accident, but no-one had it.
"I always say to people it's not about the medal, it's about the journey but I guess you don't appreciate the value of it until it's not there
Hannah Macleod celebrates at London 2012
"It was only when I picked up my 16-month-old daughter from nursery it really dawned on me. If it doesn't come back she won't see everything I worked for, which was a representation of being in the best British Olympic team and possibly the best Olympics ever."
A Metropolitan Police spokesman said it was investigating reports of an Olympic medal and blazer being stolen from an event in Mayfair, although the force had yet to be contacted about a second stolen medal.
"It was believed the items were taken between midnight and 5am on Wednesday, 24 October. No arrests have been made. Inquiries are ongoing and the property is still outstanding," he said.
Olympic and Paralympic stars had earlier been invited to the palace to mark their achievements along with the Queen, Duke of Edinburgh, Duchess of Cambridge, Prime Minister David Cameron and London 2012 chief Lord Coe.
Henley-based Partridge and 28-year-old Macleod used their Twitter accounts to appeal for information about the missing medals.
"Someone else might have it right now and if they do, I'd really appreciate having the medal back and the blazer, which had two pins on it representing the silver medal in Beijing and taking part in London 2012," said US-born Partridge.
Macleod, who hails from Boston in Lincolnshire, was a member of the women's team who beat New Zeland to secure a medal.
Police say anyone with information should call 101 or Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.
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