Syria agrees to holiday cease-fire | Same song, second verse?

Syria agrees to holiday cease-fire | Same song, second verse?

Syria agrees to cease-fire, sort of

By Salma Abdelaziz and Joe Sterling, CNN

October 25, 2012 -- Updated 2008 GMT (0408 HKT)

UN: Syria agrees to holiday cease-fire

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: We hope "guns will fall silent for people of Syria," U.N. says
• At least 60 people were killed Thursday, the opposition says
• Under pressure, the government announces the release of some detainees
• The cease-fire would extend to Monday

(CNN) -- Skeptical world leaders and war-weary Syrians are praying that the guns of autumn will fall silent, at least for a while, now that Syria's government has agreed to a brief cease-fire.

Syria's government and its main rebel force, the Free Syrian Army, both said Thursday they will halt military operations during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, which lasts from Friday to Monday.

Part of the skepticism that the truce will hold centers around the terms of Syria's agreement: Damascus reserved the right to respond to "terrorist" attacks, including bombings, as well as "terrorists" trying to reinforce their positions; and to protect neighboring borders that "terrorists" cross.

On the rebel side, a top Free Syrian Army general said his fighting force had agreed to halt military operations if the Syrian government does so as well. He remained doubtful, however, that it would hold.

Syria's rebel opposition is fractured among different rebel groups, and Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh noted that some of those rebel groups have not agreed to a cease-fire.

The United States and the United Nations -- who helped negotiate the temporary truce through U.N.-Arab League special envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi -- welcomed the news with cautious optimism.

"What we are hoping and expecting is that they will not just talk the talk of cease-fire, but they will walk the walk -- beginning with the regime," said U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.

While noting that it "can't be sure what will happen," the United Nations hopes that the guns "will fall silent for people of Syria" so they can observe a quiet holiday, said a spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

A truce would also allow humanitarian workers to beef up their operations inside Syria, the U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky said.

The announcement comes amid pessimism from Syrian rebels, who said the government of President Bashar al-Assad continues to plow ahead with shelling and raids.

Hopes for a cease-fire in Syria

Video reportedly shows bakery attack

Photos: Showdown in Syria

Annan: 'I cry everyday for the Syrians'

Opposition forces said government troops struck rebel targets Thursday in the war's major hot spots, particularly in the most populous city of Aleppo. The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported violence in Homs and Deir Ezzor.

At least 68 people died across the country Thursday amid fighting and shelling, the opposition Local Coordination Committees of Syria said. At least 31 of them died in Damascus and its suburbs and 10 in Aleppo.

Abdualla Yasin, the rebel Free Syrian Army spokesman in Aleppo said, "They have betrayed us many times and they do not care if it is Eid or anything else, they will continue to kill."

Eid al-Adha is a major holiday on the Muslim calendar. It is described as a joyous time of peace as the faithful celebrate the end of the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

The government touted several goodwill efforts Thursday leading up to its announcement that it will stop fighting.

State-run TV aired footage of men walking out from behind prison bars -- part of the government's latest amnesty program for criminals, a commentator said.

The timing of the release is key. It comes a week after rebel fighters told the Al Jazeera news agency that they would agree to a proposed cease-fire only if the government released detainees, ended a siege in the city of Homs and stopped aerial attacks.

As the cease-fire was announced, rebels reported strategic military advances in the city of Aleppo. They say rebels haven't yet gained control of the entire city but have a lot of momentum.

The rebel spokesman singled out Aleppo's Kurdish community for permitting the presence of rebels in their neighborhoods. Much of the opposition is Sunni Arab and rebels say they are heartened by support from all groups in the diverse society.

"We were welcomed by the Kurds because people believe the FSA will liberate Syria," Yasin said. "Every small gain brings us closer to victory. The FSA was also happy to unite another facet of Syrian society under the FSA umbrella."

Another reason for the skepticism of the Eid cease-fire is the failure of previous truces to take hold in Syria, which has been wracked by civil war since March 2011. A cease-fire in April barely lasted a day before bodies started falling again. In total, more than 32,000 Syrians have died since the conflict began, opposition activists say.

Witness: Children's bodies 'maimed and burnt' in Syrian funeral attack

A spokesman for the Syrian National Council, an opposition coalition, said he believes al-Assad is just trying to buy more time by agreeing to the truce.

"The whole world knows that the Syrian regime cannot be trusted and doesn't have any credibility in fulfilling any promise that they make to anyone," said George Sabra, a Paris-based spokesman for the Syrian National Council, which speaks for rebels fighting al-Assad. "The crisis is too complicated in Syria, and the Assad regime is trying a diversion."

It's foolish to expect a total cease-fire, said Aram Nerguizian, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A cease-fire in this context is about a larger goal of getting most rebel brigades and al-Assad forces to temporarily stop or reduce the killing.

But the rebels themselves are partly to blame for this spring's cease-fire failing, Nerguizian said. They are disorganized and have been just as vicious in their killing as al-Assad's forces.

Getting them on the same page and having them resist the urge to fight, he said, is unrealistic.

Cease-fire or not, the United Nations is moving forward with investigating alleged war crimes in Syria. The Geneva-based U.N. commission investigating war crimes in Syria announced Thursday that have requested a meeting with al-Assad to discuss access to Syria for the team.

"We are not specifying the access for the commission, but we thought that taking into consideration the seriousness of the situation, we think that it would be very important that he could receive us and, of course, we expect that he will receive us in Damascus," said Paulo Pinheiro, chairman of the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria.

Carla del Ponte, once prosecutor for the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, is now part of the commission. Noted for her investigation of war crimes in the Balkans in the 1990s, she cited similarities with past probes.

"The similarity is, of course, we are handling the same crimes, crimes against humanity and war crimes for sure," she said.

CNN's Ashley Fantz, Holly Yan, and Hamdi Alkhshali and Journalist Ammar Cheikh Omar contributed to this report. 

Syria cease-fire: Could it really happen?

By Ashley Fantz, CNN

October 25, 2012 -- Updated 0651 GMT (1451 HKT)

Hopes for a cease-fire in Syria

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Cease-fire could be breathing room for government, expert says
• Reports say car bomb kills four and troops kill apartment residents
• Cease-fire would occur during Muslim holiday that starts Friday
• Diplomats talk as 124 people killed across Syria

(CNN) -- Could Wednesday's proposed cease-fire signal the end of Syria's nearly two-year civil war, or is it just more talk?

The Syrian regime has agreed "in principle" to a cease-fire, the United Nations' special envoy to the country said Wednesday.

But rebels fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad are skeptical. They want to know if it's just another case of second verse, same as the first.

A cease-fire in April barely lasted a day before bodies started falling again. In total, more than 32,000 Syrians have died since the conflict began in March 2011, anti-al-Assad groups say.

This time, the proposal to lay down weapons would cover the Eid al-Adha holiday, U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said.

Starting Friday and lasting several days, Muslims around the world will celebrate the end of the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

In his office in Cairo on Wednesday, Brahimi said he'd just returned from a trip to the Syrian capital, Damascus, where commanders told him they "agree on the principle of a cease-fire."

UN: Syria agrees to holiday cease-fire

But there's been no formal statement from al-Assad's office, though it has promised one Thursday.

Video reportedly shows bakery attack

Brahimi gave no details on the cease-fire proposal. But France's ambassador gave vague details after a Security Council meeting. After getting an official response from the Syrian government, the United Nations wants shelling in neighborhoods to stop, Gérard Araud said.

Photos: Showdown in Syria

If that holds for three days, Araud said, the long-term goal is "to transform this truce into an enduring cease-fire."

Annan: 'I cry everyday for the Syrians'

But, clearly, for the cease-fire to work, the Free Syrian Army has to abide by it.

The Free Syrian Army is a loosely organized group of men fighting al-Assad's well-armed forces, and they haven't given a united statement that they would agree.

However, a self-described deputy commander said Wednesday that there's pretty much no chance the rebels will trust the Syrian government.

Syria under suspicion for Lebanon attack

"We don't think the regime is serious with agreeing to the cease-fire, since more than 200 people are martyred every day by the government's forces," Malek Kurdi said.

Photos: Muslims prepare for Eid al-Adha

It's foolish to expect a total cease-fire, said Aram Nerguizian, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Killing is going to continue sporadically, he said. A cease-fire in this context is about a larger goal of getting most rebel brigades and al-Assad forces to temporarily stop or reduce the killing.

The Syrian government, he said, is probably angling for some breathing room.

"They could have a process here to re-engage with major international players who've sought to isolate them," Nerguizian said. "This war could go as long as 2020, so why not give themselves a few days?"

In New York, U.N. Security Council members talked via teleconference with Brahimi. Many said they supported a cease-fire but were not optimistic that it would work.

The German ambassador said that Brahimi painted a "dire and dramatic" view of Syria and that Germany would do everything it could to support a cease-fire. But Peter Whittig said it's important to be "cautious and realistic."

Russia and China have longstanding trade partnerships with Syria and have been accused of favoring the al-Assad regime. Both have repeatedly vetoed attempts in the Security Council to take tougher action against the Syrian government.

The U.N. ambassador to China said he wants a cease-fire but added that there may be a 1% chance it would happen.

Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said that he thought the Syrians would have a formal statement Thursday and that a cease-fire would hopefully lead to a "political end" to the crisis.

Navi Pillay, the U.N. human rights chief, repeated her refrain from the past 19 months: that the international community must take urgent measures to protect Syria's people.

And the U.S. chimed in as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would "like to see a political transition take hold and begin."

Back in Syria, people were dying.

On Wednesday, 124 people were killed across the country, according to the Local Coordination Committees for Syria, a network of opposition activists.

A car bomb in Damascus killed four people, according to government-run media. Another car bomb detonated in Quntari; regime soldiers died. In the city of Douma, at least 15 people were killed.

Rebels said regime forces stormed a tenement building and slaughtered residents, including women and children.

Rebels blame government forces for the attacks; government forces blame rebels.

It's very difficult to get an accurate description of what's happening inside Syria because the government has blocked foreign journalists.

There was some hope for a cease-fire in April, when the Syrian government agreed to a six-point peace plan. That agreement included freeing detainees and offering access to humanitarian aid. It promised to allow international media into Syria and to allow peaceful demonstrations. The Syrian government also vowed to remove heavy weapons and troops from neighborhoods.

A young man in Homs who has kept a blog of the violence in his neighborhood wrote that he was hopeful. He said it seemed that the calm on his street meant al-Assad was keeping his end of the bargain. Tanks withdrew.

But it was merely hours before U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice said Syria wasn't in full compliance.

Things went downhill from there.

Violence was reported the same day, and the agreement collapsed within days. Both sides accused the other of failing to keep their promise.

That weekend, al-Assad's forces began firing again. Shells fell on Aleppo, the nation's second-largest city. Hundreds of people were killed, opposition activists said.

All this plays into pessimism over the current proposal.

"Based on our long experience in dealing with Assad('s) barbaric regime, we know that the Syrian government is just buying time and playing on words," said George Sabra, spokesman for the Syrian National Council, which speaks for rebels fighting al-Assad.

"The whole world knows that the Syrian regime cannot be trusted and doesn't have any credibility in fulfilling any promise that they make to anyone," said Sabra, who is based in Paris. "The crisis is too complicated in Syria, and the Assad regime is trying a diversion."

CNN asked Sabra to name the conditions that the rebels would put down their arms. He didn't name them but instead said he's suspicious that the government is dangling a cease-fire in hopes of attacking the rebels when they are less prepared.

The rebels, Sabra said, are afraid al-Assad's forces will "take advantage of the momentum so they can gain more territories."

But the rebels themselves are partly to blame for this spring's cease-fire failing, analyst Nerguizian said.

They are disorganized and have been just as vicious in their killing as al-Assad's forces.

Getting them on the same page and having them resist the urge to fight, he said, is unrealistic.

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