UK government has no mandate, unless it wins 2015 general election, to strike deal with independent Scotland, say sources- Will the white paper on Scottish independence make any difference?
- If I had the vote I'd grab the chance of Scottish independence
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Alex Salmond prepares for the SNP's biggest moment UK government has no mandate, unless it wins 2015 general election, to strike deal with independent Scotland, say sources
- The Guardian,
The Scottish first
minister, Alex Salmond, is expected to confirm on Tuesday a target date
of 26 March 2016 for Scotland to become independent. Photograph: Andy
Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images
Alex Salmond's goal of setting up an independent Scotland in March 2016 could be hard to achieve because of the 2015 general election, UK cabinet sources believe.
Sources in the Westminster government and the anti-independence campaign said the UK government had no mandate to strike a deal with an independent Scotland, unless it won the general election in May 2015 after putting its proposals to voters in the rest of UK.
The alternative would be for the main parties to agree a common position on key issues such as sterling, North Sea oil and debt before the general election, to avoid the uncertainty harming the British economy.
Salmond, the SNP leader and first minister of Scotland, will unveil his government's white paper on independence in Glasgow on Tuesday. He will confirm a target date of 26 March 2016 for Scotland to become independent.
The 670-page document is expected to set out Salmond's main demands and negotiating positions to be agreed between a "yes" vote on 18 September 2014 and the first independent Scottish parliament elections due in May 2016.
The date of 26 March has been chosen as the anniversary of the day that the Act of Union between the Scottish and English parliaments was signed in 1707, and the union of the Scottish and English crowns in 1603. The Scottish government said its 18-month timetable was entirely reasonable.
A spokesman for Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said the UK government's own legal adviser had backed the 18-month timetable, after the fixed term parliament act came into force.
"The UK government's own expert legal adviser, Prof James Crawford, described the Scottish government's timescale for achieving independence as 'realistic'," he said.
"This is a rather more realistic assessment of the situation than that of relentlessly negative Westminster politicians, who will say anything in their efforts to stop the people of Scotland voting yes."
The precise terms of pre-independence negotiations could be one of the most bitterly fought issues in the rest of the UK at the general election, ministers believe. They say a foretaste of that came with the reaction in Portsmouth and south-west England over the deal to send all warship building contracts to BAE yards in Glasgow.
"I have no doubt that the terms of the negotiation between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be a substantial if not dominant issue in the general election of 2015," the Scottish secretary, Alistair Carmichael said. "The position on a currency union would be negotiated by the rest of the UK in the best interests of the rest of the UK."
He added that the Scottish government was in no position to dictate what the UK would agree to, since that was a matter for UK voters: even Scottish MPs elected temporarily to Westminster in the last 10 months before independence would be largely powerless.
Coalition ministers are aware that a defeat for David Cameron in next September's referendum would seriously weaken his coalition government and would increase the prospects of a Labour victory in the general election, adding to the potential uncertainty.
A political crisis over the fate of institutions like the Bank of England, the UK's national debt and its defences at the same time as a political battle over a referendum on Britain's EU membership would be likely to cause a damaging backlash from the financial markets, investors and international lenders.
Sturgeon said a currency union was in the best interests of the UK and was one of a number of proposals in the independence white paper. Scotland was England's second largest trading partner; Scotland's oil revenues and exports would bolster the UK balance of trade and both economies were very closely integrated. She said she was confident that both countries would agree to share the pound: if the UK was insisting that Scotland took a fair share of the UK's debt, then Scotland was entitled to a fair share of its assets, including sterling, which belonged equally to Scotland.
Carmichael insisted a currency union would not work for either country but admitted neither the chancellor George Osborne, nor Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, had rejected it despite threats from Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first minister, to block a sterling pact. "We're not saying anything about 'you can't have'," Carmichael told the BBC's Andrew Marr show. "The fact is a currency union wouldn't work. It wouldn't work for Scotland; it wouldn't work for the rest of the UK."
• This article was amended on 25 November 2013 to correct the date of the Scottish independence referendum.
Sources in the Westminster government and the anti-independence campaign said the UK government had no mandate to strike a deal with an independent Scotland, unless it won the general election in May 2015 after putting its proposals to voters in the rest of UK.
The alternative would be for the main parties to agree a common position on key issues such as sterling, North Sea oil and debt before the general election, to avoid the uncertainty harming the British economy.
Salmond, the SNP leader and first minister of Scotland, will unveil his government's white paper on independence in Glasgow on Tuesday. He will confirm a target date of 26 March 2016 for Scotland to become independent.
The 670-page document is expected to set out Salmond's main demands and negotiating positions to be agreed between a "yes" vote on 18 September 2014 and the first independent Scottish parliament elections due in May 2016.
The date of 26 March has been chosen as the anniversary of the day that the Act of Union between the Scottish and English parliaments was signed in 1707, and the union of the Scottish and English crowns in 1603. The Scottish government said its 18-month timetable was entirely reasonable.
A spokesman for Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, said the UK government's own legal adviser had backed the 18-month timetable, after the fixed term parliament act came into force.
"The UK government's own expert legal adviser, Prof James Crawford, described the Scottish government's timescale for achieving independence as 'realistic'," he said.
"This is a rather more realistic assessment of the situation than that of relentlessly negative Westminster politicians, who will say anything in their efforts to stop the people of Scotland voting yes."
The precise terms of pre-independence negotiations could be one of the most bitterly fought issues in the rest of the UK at the general election, ministers believe. They say a foretaste of that came with the reaction in Portsmouth and south-west England over the deal to send all warship building contracts to BAE yards in Glasgow.
"I have no doubt that the terms of the negotiation between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be a substantial if not dominant issue in the general election of 2015," the Scottish secretary, Alistair Carmichael said. "The position on a currency union would be negotiated by the rest of the UK in the best interests of the rest of the UK."
He added that the Scottish government was in no position to dictate what the UK would agree to, since that was a matter for UK voters: even Scottish MPs elected temporarily to Westminster in the last 10 months before independence would be largely powerless.
Coalition ministers are aware that a defeat for David Cameron in next September's referendum would seriously weaken his coalition government and would increase the prospects of a Labour victory in the general election, adding to the potential uncertainty.
A political crisis over the fate of institutions like the Bank of England, the UK's national debt and its defences at the same time as a political battle over a referendum on Britain's EU membership would be likely to cause a damaging backlash from the financial markets, investors and international lenders.
Sturgeon said a currency union was in the best interests of the UK and was one of a number of proposals in the independence white paper. Scotland was England's second largest trading partner; Scotland's oil revenues and exports would bolster the UK balance of trade and both economies were very closely integrated. She said she was confident that both countries would agree to share the pound: if the UK was insisting that Scotland took a fair share of the UK's debt, then Scotland was entitled to a fair share of its assets, including sterling, which belonged equally to Scotland.
Carmichael insisted a currency union would not work for either country but admitted neither the chancellor George Osborne, nor Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, had rejected it despite threats from Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first minister, to block a sterling pact. "We're not saying anything about 'you can't have'," Carmichael told the BBC's Andrew Marr show. "The fact is a currency union wouldn't work. It wouldn't work for Scotland; it wouldn't work for the rest of the UK."
• This article was amended on 25 November 2013 to correct the date of the Scottish independence referendum.
- COPY http://www.theguardian.com
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