Russia seized Crimea at lightning speed, but Vladimir Putin and the West
are now engaged in a slower match of wits over the fate of eastern
Ukraine.
FULL STORY
Detained observers from the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe arrive to take part
in a press conference in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk on
Sunday, April 27.
Observers detained in eastern Ukraine
Living on the edge in eastern Ukraine
What is Putin's interest in Ukraine?
Ukraine crisis hurting Russia's economy
Ukraine crisis: Who will blink first, Vladimir Putin or the West?
April 28, 2014 -- Updated 1318 GMT (2118 HKT)
Detained observers from the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe arrive to take part
in a press conference in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk on
Sunday, April 27.
HIDE CAPTION
Crisis in Ukraine
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Russia and the West locked in match of wits over eastern Ukraine
- Russia moved thousands of troops to border and is accused of stirring unrest in east Ukraine
- Speck: West must unite to pass severe sanctions on Russian regime
- Speck: Ukrainian government attempt to retake buildings could spark Russian invasion
Editor's note: Ulrich Speck is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely his. Follow @uli_speck and @Carnegie_Europe on Twitter.
(CNN) -- Russia's seizure of Crimea last month may
have unfolded with a lightning quickness, but Vladimir Putin and the
West are now engaged in a much slower match of wits on a chessboard
stretching across most of eastern Ukraine.
Rather than going for
checkmate, both sides now seem content to wait for the other to make a
mistake. Putin made a strong first move by placing 40,000 troops on the
border -- and separatists, who are not officially linked to Russia, on
the ground in Ukraine.
Now Moscow is waiting for
the pro-Western government in Kiev to try to retake the parts of the
east it has seemingly lost. In Russia's eyes, any such move from the
capital would legitimize an overwhelming counterattack -- a re-run of
the Georgia crisis in 2008, when President Mikheil Saakashvili lost his
nerve, shot first, and prompted a Russian invasion.
Ulrich Speck
Putin's problem is time;
he cannot wait forever to strike. Troops cannot remain ready for combat
for many months at a time. Separatists in eastern Ukraine are lost
without outside support, and may become nervous as time drags on without
any glimpse of a light at the end of the tunnel.
On the other side of the
board are U.S. President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel
and Ukraine's fledgling government. The biggest challenge for Obama and
his German counterpart is to keep a united Western front. They need to
uphold a credible threat of massive economic sanctions that could
undercut the Kremlin's funding if it doesn't toe the line.
But cracks in Western
unity are visible everywhere. Europe may be concerned about Russian
aggression in Ukraine, but the continent is dragging its collective feet
on taking a more confrontational stance towards Putin.
Observers detained in eastern Ukraine
Living on the edge in eastern Ukraine
What is Putin's interest in Ukraine?
Ukraine crisis hurting Russia's economy
Some nations fear Russian
pressure, especially on their energy supply. Many are nervous about the
price their own countries will pay as a result of tougher sanctions.
And nobody is sure yet whether they're ready to abandon the idea of
Russia as a vital partner.
Obama, on the other hand,
is much more inclined to put the squeeze on the Kremlin. Washington is
used to confrontation with Russia -- and with Putin, specifically -- and
America is much less economically-connected with its old Cold War
rival.
American leaders aren't
motivated solely by their concern over eastern Europe and Russia
reasserting itself as a more aggressive and expansionist power. The U.S.
also wants to assert key norms of international order -- namely
territorial integrity and the principle to change borders only with the
consent of all parties.
Ukraine is also a
welcome opportunity to signal to allies and rivals alike that America is
not retrenching from its global engagements. The impact of the Ukraine
crisis on China and the various territorial conflicts with its neighbors
will also loom very large on the minds of policy makers in Washington.
But whatever the
differences among U.S. and EU leaders, the more they act in concert, the
better chance they have to achieve their goal: beating back Moscow's
attempt to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The West also needs to
make sure that Kiev's interim government doesn't lose its nerve. As hard
as it is for leaders to watch pro-Russian separatists take over their
buildings, any large-scale operation in eastern Ukraine could give Putin
the opportunity he may be waiting for: invasion with some kind of
dubious pseudo-legal cover.
It is difficult to say
who is in a better position. Putin is a master tactician. Since his
years as a KGB agent in Dresden in the 1980s, he has gained much
expertise in finding and exploiting the West's weak spots. And he seems
to have broad support at home for his confrontational brand of politics.
Putin's weakness is his
regime's economic dependency on the West. Without the steady flow of
income from the sale of gas and oil, brought under control of the
Kremlin, the regime would not be able to buy support at home and to
finance costly and risky foreign policy adventures.
The West has no appetite
to confront Russia. But if Putin's tanks roll into eastern Ukraine out
of the blue, without any pretense of legitimacy, he will turn Western
opinion even further against him. This could give Merkel and Obama the
necessary backing for tough sanctions.
If he is to achieve his
main goal, which is to prevent Ukraine from associating closer with the
West, Putin will have to move fast. He probably needs to have some kind
of Russian presence inside Ukraine (apart from Crimea), as control over
separatists in the east alone might not be sufficient or sustainable.
A full-scale crackdown
by the Ukrainian government on separatists would give Moscow the cover
to move some Russian troops as "peacekeepers" into eastern Ukraine. Once
inside the country, another "frozen conflict" could be created which
would destabilize the country and prevent Western attempts to help
Ukraine to get on its feet. This would keep Putin's longer-term ambition
-- to bring Ukraine into a Moscow-led alliance or federation -- very
much alive.
If the Kremlin comes to
the conclusion that the West wouldn't respond to such a move with
painful sanctions -- ones that would damage Putin's inner circle and be
strong enough to sap major sources of income for the Kremlin -- Putin
might choose to move along such lines or in other ways.
But if the U.S. and EU
demonstrate that they are truly ready to use economic warfare to counter
the Russian military machine, the West may yet be able to deter Putin
from going much further. Something has to give soon.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ulrich Speck.
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