WASHINGTON
- Secretary of State John Kerry's public assertions that moderate
Syrian opposition groups are growing in influence appear to be at odds
with estimates by U.S. and European intelligence sources, who say
Islamic extremists remain the fiercest and best-organized rebel
elements.
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By Mark Hosenball and Phil Stewart
WASHINGTON |
Thu Sep 5, 2013 1:11am EDT
(Reuters) - Secretary of State John Kerry's public assertions that
moderate Syrian opposition groups are growing in influence appear to be
at odds with estimates by U.S. and European intelligence sources and
nongovernmental experts, who say Islamic extremists remain by far the
fiercest and best-organized rebel elements.
At congressional hearings this week, while making the case for President Barack Obama's plan for limited military action in Syria,
Kerry asserted that the armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad "has increasingly become more defined by its moderation, more
defined by the breadth of its membership, and more defined by its
adherence to some, you know, democratic process and to an all-inclusive,
minority-protecting constitution.
"And the opposition is getting stronger by the day," Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.
U.S. and allied intelligence sources and private experts on the Syrian conflict suggest that assessment is optimistic.
While
the radical Islamists among the rebels may not be numerically superior
to more moderate fighters, they say, Islamist groups like the al
Qaeda-aligned Nusra Front are better organized, armed and trained.
Kerry's
remarks represented a change in tone by the Obama administration, which
for more than two years has been wary of sending U.S. arms to the
rebels, citing fears they could fall into radical Islamists' hands.
As
recently as late July, at a security conference in Aspen, Colorado, the
deputy director of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, David
Shedd, estimated that there were at least 1,200 different Syrian rebel
groups and that Islamic extremists, notably the Nusra Front, were
well-placed to expand their influence.
"Left
unchecked, I'm very concerned that the most radical elements will take
over larger segments" of the opposition groups, Shedd said. He added
that the conflict could drag on anywhere "from many, many months to
multiple years" and that a prolonged stalemate could leave open parts of
Syria to potential control by radical fighters.
U.S. and allied intelligence sources said that such assessments have not changed.
A
spokeswoman at the State Department said Kerry's remarks reflect the
department's position, adding that the opposition had "taken steps over
the past months to coalesce, including electing leaders."
GREATER NUMBERS, LESS STRENGTH?
Experts agree that the Nusra Front, an offshoot of the group al Qaeda in Iraq, is among the most effective forces in Syria.
In a second hearing on Wednesday, Kerry was challenged by Representative Michael McCaul, Texas Republican.
"Who
are the rebel forces? Who are they? I ask that in my briefings all the
time," McCaul said. "And every time I get briefed on this it gets worse
and worse, because the majority now of these rebel forces - and I say
majority now - are radical Islamists pouring in from all over the
world."
Kerry replied: "I just
don't agree that a majority are al Qaeda and the bad guys. That's not
true. There are about 70,000 to 100,000 oppositionists ... Maybe 15
percent to 25 percent might be in one group or another who are what we
would deem to be bad guys.
"There
is a real moderate opposition that exists. General Idriss is running the
military arm of that," Kerry continued, referring to General Salim
Idriss, head of the rebel Free Syrian Army. Increasingly, he said, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are funneling assistance through Idriss.
Kerry
cited an article by Elizabeth O'Bagy, an analyst with the Institute for
the Study of War think tank, in which she wrote that Islamic extremist
factions are not "spearheading the fight against the Syrian government,"
but rather that the struggle is being led by "moderate opposition
forces."
Several leading lawmakers,
including Senator John McCain, Arizona Republican, also have said there
is a viable moderate opposition in Syria that Washington should
support.
U.S. intelligence sources do not dispute that Islamic extremists are in the minority on the battlefield.
"Most
of the groups battling against Assad are composed of Islamist fighters,
but only a small minority could accurately be characterized as
extremist," one U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
But
a second official, who also asked not to be named, said moderate rebels
may have lost strength rather than gained it in recent months. Due to
their relative lack of weapons and organization, they are beginning to
make alliances with better-armed Islamic radicals, whom they see
pursuing more effective actions against Assad's forces, the official
said.
Paul Pillar, who retired in
2005 as the U.S. intelligence community's top Middle East analyst, said
he believed the Obama Administration was walking a fine line, trying to
calculate how to punish Assad's government for allegedly using chemical
weapons while not bolstering the strength of religious militant rebels.
"In
a hard-fought civil war, especially one without a single well-organized
opposition movement, success goes to the most ruthless and dedicated
elements, which also tend to be the most extreme in their views. We are
seeing such a process in Syria today," Pillar said.
An
authorization to use military force approved on Wednesday by the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee states that U.S. policy in Syria includes
"upgrading the lethal and non-lethal military capabilities of vetted
elements of Syrian opposition forces."
'CHOOSING ONE AMONG MANY SIDES'
Top
U.S. intelligence and military officials have recently offered bleak
public evaluations of the relative strengths of moderate and religious
extremist Syrian rebels.
In an
August 19 letter to Representative Eliot Engel, obtained by Reuters, the
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, warned:
"Syria is not about choosing between two sides but rather about choosing
one among many sides.
"It is my
belief that the side we choose must be ready to promote their interests
and ours when the balance shifts in their favor," Dempsey wrote. "Today
they are not."
A European security
official with experience in the region said that extremist rebel
factions were so strong and well-organized in the north and west of
Syria that they were setting up their own public services and trying to
create an Islamic ministate along the Iraqi border.
By
contrast, the official said, more moderate rebel factions predominate
in the east of Syria and along its southern border with Jordan but have
largely devolved into "gangs" whose leaders are more interested in
operating local rackets and enriching themselves than in forming a
larger alliance that could more effectively oppose Assad's government.
"I've
heard that there are moderate groups out there we could, in theory,
support," said Joshua Foust, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who now
writes about foreign policy.
"But
I've heard from those same people and my own contacts within (U.S.
intelligence) that the scary people are displacing more and more
moderate groups. Basically, the jihadists are setting up governance and
community councils while the moderates exhaust themselves doing the
heavy fighting," Foust said.
As
anecdotal evidence, Foust cited a recent report that on August 22, four
out of five commanders of the moderate Supreme Military Council had
threatened to resign and work "with all forces fighting in Syria."
A video
on YouTube shows the rebel commander who made this announcement. He is
seated in front of an Islamic extremist flag, next to a bearded cleric
clad in the religious dress of a Salafist militant.
(Editing by Warren Strobel and Prudence Crowther) copy http://www.reuters.com
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