April 7, 2014 -- Updated 1235 GMT (2035 HKT)
Today, in India's remote northeastern states of Assam and Tripura, the
first wave of the country's 814 million eligible voters will cast their
ballots as the largest election in world history gets underway. FULL STORY
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WHY INDIA FEELS JILTED BY OBAMA: OPINION
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IMPACT ON ECONOMY
Nehru-Gandhi heir and populist Hindu nationalist face off in Indian election
April 7, 2014 -- Updated 0421 GMT (1221 HKT)
Biggest election world has ever seen
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- India's general election will take five weeks and is the biggest election in history
- 814 million -- more than combined populations of the U.S. and Western Europe -- are eligible to vote
- The race pits a controversial but popular Hindu nationalist against a member of Nehru-Gandhi dynasty
- Analysts are describing the vote as India's most significant in decades
Any time the world's most
populous democracy goes to the polls, it's a momentous undertaking. But
with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stepping aside after a decade in
charge, analysts say voting will take on an even greater significance
this time around, with the country potentially poised on the cusp of a
new political era.
Amid widespread public
concern over corruption, rising inflation and slowing economic growth,
voters will be faced with a choice between the young scion of India's
most powerful political dynasty, and a populist, business-minded Hindu
nationalist who is described as at once India's most popular and most
divisive politician.
"This election is a
battle of ideologies, it's a battle for (the) kind of India we want,"
declared 43-year-old Congress Party candidate Rahul Gandhi -- whose
great-grandfather, grandmother and father have all served as prime
minister -- in a recent speech.
The outcome of the
election, which will be held in stages over five weeks -- employing 11
million polling and security personnel and absorbing an estimated $5
billion in campaigning costs -- may have stark ramifications for India's
identity at home and abroad.
Modi rides high
Biggest election world has ever seen
After a decade of
coalition government led by the secular, center-left Congress Party
(INC), which has ruled for most of the post-independence era, support is
soaring for India's other major political party.
Polling suggests a strong swing to the center-right, Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a recent survey by the Pew Research Center finding voters preferred the BJP to lead the next government by a margin of more than three to one.
The party's support has
been boosted by the immense popularity of prime ministerial candidate
Narendra Modi, 63-year-old Chief Minister of the western state of
Gujarat.
Nearly 80% of those
surveyed by Pew had a positive view of Modi, with 60% describing their
impressions of him as very favorable. (By comparison, 50% held positive
views of Gandhi, with just 23% giving "very favorable" responses.)
Modi's reputation as a
tough, "can-do" administrator rests largely on his record in charge of
Gujarat since 2001, a state whose economic success is often cited as an
example for the rest of the country.
These young voters... have a dream of moving forward -- not lagging behind as their fathers and grandfathers have for decades
Dilip Dutta, director of the South Asian Studies Group, University of Sydney
Dilip Dutta, director of the South Asian Studies Group, University of Sydney
The BJP's economic model
under Modi, focusing on infrastructure, urbanization and eradicating
red tape, contrasts sharply with the traditional approach of the
Congress Party, whose focus on promoting inclusive growth involves a
raft of welfare schemes.
Dilip Dutta, director of
the South Asian Studies Group at the University of Sydney, said Modi's
model was widely seen as offering better prospects of economic
development, particularly by the young voters tipped to play a key role
in the election. About 100 million voters will be eligible to vote for
the first time in 2014.
"They're getting some
hope that perhaps Modi can steer the economy in the right direction so
that they can get more in terms of job opportunities and economic
growth," he said. "These young voters are exposed through electronic
media to the whole world, and have a dream of moving forward -- not
lagging behind as their fathers and grandfathers have for decades."
Mohan Guruswamy, a
political analyst at Delhi's Center for Policy Alternatives, likens
Modi's economic vision for a "right-wing, authoritarian corporate state"
as closer to the model in China -- India's neighboring superpower whose
rapid economic ascent is eyed enviously from the subcontinent, where
GDP growth has dropped below 5%.
A Hindu nationalist at the helm?
In contrast to the
Congress Party's secularism, Modi is also notable as a Hindu nationalist
-- a position that resonates with large swathes of an increasingly
confident, assertive electorate, but gives pause to some among the
country's religious minorities.
"Internationally, he
would be a little more hardline on everything -- Pakistan, China,
America. Indian interests would be aggressively asserted," said
Guruswamy. "It plays well with the electorate, the new generation coming
up that's educated by the Internet -- they tend to be right-wing
nerds."
Their nationalist
perspective, he said, was informed by "a sense of victimhood, that we've
been victimized by foreigners -- by Muslim invaders, Christian
invaders."
But for all the
excitement around Modi, he comes with plenty of detractors. Chief among
them are those who question his suitability to lead a country as diverse
as India. In particular, his track record with India's 180
million-strong Muslim community, the country's second largest religious
group, has come under scrutiny.
Less than a year after
Modi assumed office in Gujarat in late 2001, the state was wracked with
anti-Muslim violence, in which more than 1000 people, mostly Muslims,
were killed. Modi was criticized for not doing enough to halt the
violence, accusations he has denied. The U.S. State Department denied
Modi a visa in 2005 over the issue, but last month said it would welcome
Modi to the United States if he wins.
You can't be autocratic or they'll cut you out
Mohan Guruswamy, political analyst
Mohan Guruswamy, political analyst
The effectiveness of his
much-vaunted "Modinomics" formula in Gujarat has also been brought into
question, with claims his influence has been overhyped. "There is no
'Gujarat model,' and there are other states with faster economic
growth," says Guruswamy. Many feel that economic development in the
state has been unequally distributed, and not matched with corresponding
gains in human development, he said.
Modi's style of
leadership -- perceived as decisive by admirers, as autocratic by
detractors -- is also seen by some as ill-suited for the nation's top
office.
"It's not a place where
you can press buttons -- you have to work with people," said Guruswamy,
who knows Modi personally. "The prime minister of India has to be the
supreme conciliator, reconciling the aspirations and demands of
thousands of groups. It's not like China where you can turn off Weibo
one day -- you can't be autocratic or they'll cut you out."
Gandhi: A prime minister-in-waiting?
Yet any misgivings about
Modi have so far failed to buoy the prospects of the Congress candidate
Rahul Gandhi. With an unparalleled political pedigree as the son of
assassinated former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and the Italy-born
Congress Party president Sonia Gandhi, the 43-year-old has long been
viewed as a prime minister-in-waiting.
But his chances have
been hampered by widespread voter displeasure with the Congress-led
coalition government over high inflation, slowing economic growth and a
run of corruption scandals, says Dutta.
For all Gandhi's youth,
his party is seen as the old order, with Modi widely viewed as providing
the alternative to the status quo, says Guruswamy.
I don't think Gandhi is in the game. He's seen as undeserving, his mother's son
Mohan Guruswamy, political analyst
Mohan Guruswamy, political analyst
"I don't think Gandhi is
in the game," he said. "He's seen as undeserving, his mother's son. How
many generations can you pull along like this? I think people are
getting tired of it," he said.
In contrast to what
Guruswamy described as Modi's "relentless drive to become prime
minister," questions have been asked whether Gandhi possesses a genuine
desire to lead, while his personal style has failed to excite voters.
"Like somebody said, he's got the charisma of cold pizza," said
Guruswamy.
Anti-corruption platform
While both parties
pledge to target corruption, said Guruswamy, a lack of public confidence
in either to effectively address the problem has paved the way for a
new political force to enter the fray.
Formed in late 2012, the
Aam Aadmi (Common Man) Party, led by former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind
Kejriwal, won an unexpected 28 of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly in
2013. Contesting its first general election, it will be fielding more
candidates than either major party.
Guruswamy said the
anti-corruption party could prove to have some longevity. "They're going
to flag the agenda, they're making their presence felt this time
around," said Guruswamy. "By the time the next election comes around,
they'll be a big force."
Dutta said a long-term
commitment would be required to make any progress in tackling India's
entrenched, endemic corruption problem. "I wish (Kejriwal) will be able
to succeed -- but it won't be overnight," he said.
CNN's Sumnima Udas and Moni Basu contributed to this report.
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