April 4, 2014 -- Updated 2105 GMT (0505 HKT)
Afghans will pick a successor to Hamid Karzai in one of the most
significant presidential elections in the country's turbulent history. A
look at who's in the running. FULL STORY
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JOURNALISTS SHOT AHEAD OF VOTE
Who's running? The candidates vying to be Afghanistan's next president
April 4, 2014 -- Updated 1025 GMT (1825 HKT)
Who will be Afghanistan's new president?
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Historic presidential election looms for war-torn country
- April 5 will see the first round of voting, with a following runoff if no candidate wins outright
- Out of a field of 11, three candidates stand a realistic chance of winning
- Incumbent Hamid Karzai constitutionally bound to step down
The third election since
the fall of the Taliban in 2001, it marks the first democratic handover
of power in the fragile country, with incumbent Hamid Karzai -- who is
constitutionally bound to step down -- handing over the reins.
With NATO troops
scheduled to pull out of Afghanistan by the end of the year, and
following the refusal of Karzai to sign a bilateral agreement -- the
so-called Status of Forces Agreement -- with the U.S. to keep some
troops in-country, Afghan security is in the hands of the next man to be
sworn in.
Karzai, once the darling
of the West but long since fallen out of favor amid cries of corruption
and cronyism, was widely credited with engineering the result last time
out, but hopes are high that this election will yield a genuine result
-- with the proviso that recent Taliban-orchestrated violence does not disrupt polling.
Out of a field of eleven
candidates, analysts believe there are three serious contenders,
Abdullah Abdullah, Arshaf Ghani and Zalmai Rassoul.
"Arshaf Ghani and
Abdullah are campaigning on the implicit message that they will bring
change," Martine van Bijlert, Co-director, Afghanistan Analysts Network
(AAN) told CNN from Kabul.
"Abdullah has long tried
to be a leader of the opposition. Arshaf Ghani is going on the
impression of being a highly educated man, very serious. So the two of
them are trying to give this impression of change. Zalmai Rassoul is
presenting himself as the favored candidate of the president ...
representing continuity."
If next Sunday's poll
doesn't produce a clear winner, the top two backed candidates will enter
a runoff. However, a back-room deal may be struck to avoid this
scenario, van Bijlert says, in order to avoid dragging on an election
which is likely to be contentious.
CNN takes a look at the three main contenders to be Afghanistan's next leader.
Two-time presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah, seen here during his 2009 candidacy
Abdullah Abdullah
An ophthalmologist and
former Northern Alliance medic in a previous life, Abdullah was a vocal
critic of the Taliban during their years in power and although he was a
previous Karzai ally, serving in his government as foreign minister, he
has in later years been a thorn in the side of the man who has ruled
Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban in 2001.
This urbane politician,
known for his eloquence -- and his elegance -- took on Karzai in 2009's
election but dropped out after the first round in protest to what he saw
as large-scale voter fraud. His campaign this time around has been
wracked with violence, with three separate attacks by militants on
Abdullah campaigners in the past few weeks., according to the Afghan news agency, Khaama.
Amanpour interviews Abdullah
"The environment is not
risk free, but when I look at the enthusiasm of the Afghan people to
participate in the elections -- that is part of it is encouraging. It is
highly encouraging," he told CNN's Christiane Amanpour earlier this year.
As with many countries,
both democratic and otherwise, loyalty along ethnic lines matters a
great deal in Afghanistan. Pashtuns make up more than half of the
population in this multi-ethnic country, with Tajiks the second-largest
group, and a number of minor Turkic and other ethnic groups.
Part Tajik and part
Pashtun, Abdullah is considered a relative outsider given his
background. He is generally associated with his Tajik side, giving him a
possible advantage in reaching out to non-Pashtun voters, but which may
work against him if he is forced into a runoff and the other candidates
back his Pashtun challenger.
He is seen as a relatively liberal candidate and advocate of women's engagement in public life, telling Britain's Independent newspaper,
"If you want to see this country or any other country even being able
to deal with the challenges and develop, it cannot happen without the
role of half the population."
He has signaled his
intention to sign the Status of Forces Agreement with President Barack
Obama in an effort to offer his constituents some security following
NATO''s planned withdrawal at the end of 2014.
"Establishment candidate" Zalmai Rassoul, waves to supporters at a rally in the northwestern city of Herat
Zalmai Rassoul
While Karzai has said
that he will not publicly throw his weight behind any of the 11
candidates running, Rassoul is seen as the establishment candidate. A
Karzai ally, he received the backing of the current president's brother,
Qayum, who withdrew his candidacy and endorsed the former foreign
minister.
"He hasn't been formally endorsed (by the president) but the impression has been allowed to persist," says van Bijlert.
On Wednesday another
hopeful, Sardar Mohammad Nadir Naeem, also stepped down and backed
Rassoul, giving him further momentum in the run-up to next week's vote.
Amanpour interviews Rassoul
Another doctor, the
former Karzai cabinet minister has a reputation for honesty, despite his
years in an administration widely plagued with accusations of graft.
He has said that he will
abide by the results of the April 5 poll, even if he suspects fraud,
and has urged his fellow challengers to do the same. There have been
doubts aired of the government's impartiality and rival candidates have
expressed fears that his connections in the presidential palace could be
the invisible hand that nudges him to victory.
A moderate, he has urged
better relations with the war-torn country's neighbors, and has also
followed his fellow candidates' lead by pledging to sign the joint
security agreement with the U.S.
His running mate, Habiba
Sarabi, is one of only three female vice-presidential candidates on the
ballot. Van Bijlert says that this may be a calculated move. "When
you're putting together your ticket you try to appeal to as many people
as possible, this is also an attempt to reach out to the women voters."
Presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani, address supporters in Mazar-i-Sharif.
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
A former academic who
previously taught at Berkeley and Johns Hopkins University in the U.S.,
Arshaf Ghani has emerged as a dark horse who recently polled as a potential leading candidate.
A former U.S. citizen
who gave up his passport to run for the Afghan presidency in 2009, he's
known as having an impatient, fiery temper but also of being incredibly
detail-oriented. Another ex-Karzai man, Ghani served as both an adviser
to the current president and also as finance minister in his cabinet.
Amanpour interviews Ghani
He was working at the
World Bank in Washington D.C. during the September 11 attacks, and used
the tragedy as a springboard for his re-engagement in Afghan politics,
returning to his home country just months after the event.
Considered a moderate,
he says he has seen positive signs while campaigning around the country.
"(At) rally after rally people are responding to a message of
moderation, to message of reform, to message of transformation, to
peace, stability and cooperation," he told CNN's Anna Coren.
His experience in the
development agency was invaluable during his time in Karzai's
government, reconstructing the country, and he hopes voters will be
convinced that it will stand him in equally good stead for the top job.
Afghanistan's next hope for peace?
Afghan troops prepare for U.S. pullout
A shrewd operator, Ghani
has enlisted the support of ex-warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum, a
native Uzbek, as his running mate.
With this choice, van
Bijlert says, "he'll appeal to the Uzbek vote. The ethnic groups are not
solid block,s but the Uzbek one is probably the most solid one. It also
shows us that he's prepared to play politics, he's not only principled,
which goes both ways. For some people that's a plus and for others it
isn't."
However, his many years
in the United States -- especially while his countrymen were suffering,
first under the yoke of Soviet imperialism and later the strictures of
the Taliban -- may impede him as he is seen as an outsider with strong
ties to the U.S., merely the latest foreign invaders of Afghan soil.
Long memories
As with 2009, voters'
hopes are tinged with skepticism going into Saturday's vote. "People
(remember) the last election," van Bijlert says."They know there's been a
lot of manipulation, a lot of irregularities. They hope it will be
better but most people are fairly realistic."
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