Analysis
Most neighbors silent as Venezuela reels
February 24, 2014 -- Updated 2331 GMT (0731 HKT)
A demonstrator throws a rock at
police during an anti-government protest in Valencia, Venezuela, on
Wednesday, February 26. For weeks, anti-government protesters -- unhappy
with the economy and rising crime -- have been clashing with security
forces.
HIDE CAPTION
Protests erupt in Venezuela
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Ukraine and Venezuela experience deadly uprisings against authoritarian regimes
- David Frum: Ukraine's neighbors support the activists, but many of Venezuela's don't
- Chile and Colombia condemn regime, he says, but they're right wing and thus suspect
- Frum: Brazil could play a big role in supporting democratic change in Venezuela
Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at The Daily Beast.
He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and
a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant
to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002.
(CNN) -- Location, location, location: It matters greatly to the success of democracy.
Last week, for the second
time in a decade, a popular uprising in Ukraine chased away a corrupt,
authoritarian leader. (The same leader both times, as it happens.) The
Orange Revolution of 2005 ended badly -- and the same adverse conditions
overshadow Ukraine's hopes today.
David Frum
Yet in Ukraine, neighbors
Poland and Germany have supported and defended that nation's dissidents
and democrats. But Ukraine is not the only authoritarian regime facing
protests. And it's not the only nation where democratic neighbors could
make a positive difference. Unfortunately, in the other case --
Venezuela -- too many of those neighbors are silent.
Except only for brief
punctuations by rebellions and invasions, Russia ruled Ukraine as a
province from the late 17th century until 1991. Vladimir Putin seems to
regard the state of affairs since 1991 as merely another of those
punctuations. Under Putin, Russia has subverted Ukrainian institutions
and manipulated the Ukrainian economy. The goal has been to subordinate Ukraine as a dependent, compliant and nondemocratic subject state.
Putin succeeded in that
goal after 2005. He'll surely try again after 2014. Whether he succeeds
again or is thwarted will depend greatly on the efforts of Poland and
Germany above all. Those neighbors exemplify the transition to democracy
and a normally functioning economy.
The Polish foreign
minister was in Kiev during the crucial hours before the flight of
President Viktor Yanukovych. Germany has offered aid to cover Ukraine's
energy debt to Russia and has warned Russia against any tampering with
Ukraine's territorial integrity.
In Venezuela, at least eight people are dead and dozens wounded in protests. Many of the casualties have been inflicted by semicriminal motorcycle gangs known as colectivos,
loyal to the Bolivarian regime, so-called because Hugo Chavez helped
change the official name of the country to Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela.
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The Internet has been
turned off in cities sympathetic to the opposition, both to stop
information arriving -- and, maybe even more, to prevent photos and
videos of regime brutality from exiting.
Colombia's cable news
network has been dropped from Venezuelan cable systems. CNN has been
threatened with the same fate unless it alters its coverage more to the
authorities' liking. CNN has not complied, and thus far the Venezuelan
government has not executed its threat. Cuba has sent troops to
reinforce the government.
In this dangerous
situation, the presidents of Chile and Colombia have urged the
Venezuelan government to permit peaceful protest and eschew violence.
These statements carry impressive moral weight.
Chile is South America's outstanding democratic paragon.
Since the end of the dictatorship in 1989, power has alternated from
democratic right to democratic left and back again. Outstanding economic
management has led Chile to the highest per-capita income in South
America, catching up to Estonia and Lithuania, and ahead of Poland.
Colombia has made impressive progress
subduing a decades-long insurgency and inviting former rebels to join
the political progress under the new and more liberal constitution of
1990. It has suppressed drug trafficking: Aerial surveys indicate
Colombia's coca acreage has been reduced by three-fourths since 2000.
President Barack Obama has hailed Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos
as "bold and brave" in his work for peace and security inside Colombia
-- a task made more complex and difficult by the late Hugo Chavez's
military and financial support for the drug-trafficking remnants of the Colombian insurgency.
Because the presidents
of Chile and Colombia are identified with the political right, however,
their condemnation is easier for the Venezuelan government to shrug off
than would be condemnations from democratic presidents associated with
Latin America's democratic left.
Brazil's Dilma Rousseff
could play an especially important part here. Herself once a left-wing
guerrilla against Brazil's former military regime, Rousseff embraced
democratic politics in the 1970s and 1980s and was chief of staff to
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former trade unionist and
Brazil's first president of working-class origins.
Lula da Silva was
everything that Chavez pretended to be, a leader who promoted social
welfare policies while also respecting basic freedoms and civil rights.
Unlike Chavez, who started his political career with a failed coup, Lula
da Silva always followed constitutional rules. Again, unlike Chavez who
repeatedly rewrote Venezuela's laws to extend his hold on power, he
left by the constitutional timetable.
As Lula da Silva's
successor, Rousseff inherits much of his prestige. Yet that moral voice
keeps silent as Venezuela's goon government exerts ever more censorship,
corruption and violence to extend its grip on power.
The authoritarian
governments of Latin America -- not only Venezuela but also Cuba,
Ecuador, and Nicaragua -- form almost a trade union of shared ugly
interests.
Where is the unity of
the continent's democracies? For very understandable historical reasons,
Latin American governments worry about overbearing American action. Yet many won't act, even when their most important interests and most cherished values come under violent attack.
The leaders of Germany
and Poland have learned from history that embattled democrats, when left
alone, may die alone. The lessons apply as well in the Western
Hemisphere as in the East -- the lessons and the responsibility.
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- Copy http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/24/opinion/frum-ukraine-venezuela
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