Election 2015 live: final votes cast as battle for power looms
Rolling coverage of the results of the UK general election 2015,
including the exit poll, the results as they come in, and all the best
reaction, comment and analysis
LIVE Updated
Ed Miliband and his wife Justine Thornton (left): David Cameron and his
wife Samantha; and Nick Clegg and his wife Miriam Gonzalez Durantez.
Like millions of others, they have all been voting in the UK general
election
Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images
Formula Photograph: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Being Guardian readers, you won’t need an explanation because I’m sure it’s all quite clear to you.
Claire’s election primer also included this guide to declaration times.
1am: Nuneaton. The first Tory-held marginal expected to declare. This is the kind of seat Labour needs to win to secure the election.
If it doesn’t, Ed Miliband’s champagne might need to stay on ice. The
Guardian’s John Harris visited Nuneaton this week and you can watch his
film here:
2am: Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath. The
first klaxons from Scotland. Labour’s Tom Greatrex could hold on in
Rutherglen, but in Kirkcaldy – once held by Gordon Brown as the safest
Labour seat in Scotland – it could be a different story. It’s all about
the SNP, and if they win here, they might be on course to take the 50+
seats they’ve been predicted in polls.
2am-3am: Eastleigh; Yeovil; Bermondsey and Old Southwark.
Lib Dem territory, especially for long-time south London MP Simon
Hughes, and they might hang on here, despite doomy predictions. If not,
the night could be even worse than predicted.
3am: Kingston and Surbiton. The Lib Dem energy secretary, Ed Davey, could be under threat from the Tories.
From 3am: Renfrewshire East and Paisley & Renfrewshire South. The
chance of some shocks here, with Jim Murphy, Scottish Labour leader,
and Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, on the brink of
losing out to the SNP. Jo Swinson hopes to avoid a similar fate in East Dunbartonshire.
3am: Thurrock. This could be where Ukip wins its first seat in a general election.
3am: Bristol West, Brent Central, and Hornsey & Wood Green.
If Labour doesn’t gain from the Lib Dems in seats such as these,
including ousting Lynne Featherstone in north London, Miliband will
struggle to get to No 10. But the Greens are also hoping to pull off a
win in Bristol West.
3am: Holborn and St Pancras. The Green leader, Natalie Bennett, is up against Keir Starmer, who should hold the seat for Labour.
3.30am: Great Grimsby. Ukip aims to swipe this from Labour.
From 3.30am: Loughborough. If Labour ousts the
education secretary, Nicky Morgan (which it probably won’t), it might
mean the party is on course for a majority.
From 4am: Doncaster North. Ed Miliband’s seat. This one won’t be a nailbiter.
From 4am: Broxtowe. Labour could claim this from the Tory defence minister, Anna Soubry.
From 4am Twickenham. The Lib Dem business secretary, Vince Cable, has been targeted by Tories here.
4.30am: Sheffield Hallam. Could Nick Clegg lose his seat? Tactical voting from local Tories could save him. But this one’s worth staying up for.
From 4.30am: Morley and Outwood. Ed Balls’s seat. He had a majority of just 1,101 last time.
From 4.30am: Witney. Who will win? The candidates include David Cameron and … oh, moving on.
From 4.30am: Clacton. Douglas Carswell is hoping to hold on to this seat for Ukip.
From 4.30am: Gordon. The Lib Dems look almost certain to be booted out here by the SNP’s Alex Salmond.
5am: Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey. The Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, is expected to lose his seat around now.
From 5.30am: Rochester and Strood. Another Tory defector to Ukip, Mark Reckless, is hoping to hang on to his seat.
From 5.30am: Wirral West. Tory incumbent Esther McVey is on wobbly ground here.
From 5.30am: Brighton Pavilion. Caroline Lucas will hope to stay as Green MP here despite a Labour push.
6am: Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Is this the return of Boris Johnson? (Spoiler: pretty much definitely, yes.)
6am: South Thanet. The moment of truth for Nigel Farage. Too early for hair of the dog?
BBC1: The magisterial David Dimbleby captains the
live results show from 10pm, with Nick Robinson, Emily Maitlis, Vine and
Andrew Neil alongside. From 7am on Friday, Huw Edwards takes over, with
the BBC promising he will “stay live on air” until we know what’s
happening, which presumably is also its zombie invasion plan.
ITV: Political editor Tom Bradby presents, with
Julie Etchingham and Nina Hossain, and we are assured there will be no
commercial breaks, which is a relief for those worried they might miss
the Sheffield Hallam result for a “have you had an accident that wasn’t
your fault?” advert. ITV also promises a Commons calculator, which had
better be more exciting than it sounds.
Sky News: It’s Adam Boulton, of course, with
political editor Faisal Islam, broadcasting from “a specially created
studio”, which sounds slightly unnecessary as you’d have thought they
already had a few. Eamonn Holmes, hoping to turn in early, is in
Sunderland. Dermot Murnaghan comes on board at 5am on Friday.
Channel 4: It’s Alternative Election Night here –
though not that alternative as it has Jeremy Paxman, who said, while
dying a little inside: “Elections matter. But that doesn’t mean the
coverage has to be dull. I hope there’ll be room for both insight and
laughter.” David Mitchell, Cathy Newman and Gary Gibbon are also around.
And there’s a special election-themed Gogglebox in which the word “posh” will be heard a lot.
My colleague Alberto Nardelli has a more detailed analysis here.
Essentially, he says that the Tories are on course to get most votes,
that it’s a toss-up (to raid the cliche cupboard again) as to which of
the main parties gets most seats, but that it is hard to see how David
Cameron could remain as prime minister.
Quite soon we’ll know for certain. The polls close at 10pm, and at
that point the BBC and other broadcasters will release the results of
their joint exit poll. It is called an exit poll, but it is not just an
ICM/YouGov-type job (professional as they are). It is a highly
sophisticated forecast, produced by the country’s leading psephologists,
based on data from 140 polling stations. Last election at 10pm it got
the final Conservative result exactly right, and with the Lib Dems and
Labour it was out by two and three seats respectively. In other words,
it is worth taking very seriously.
For real results, we’ll have to wait a bit longer, but not much. The
first is due from Houghton & Sunderland South at around 11pm. A full list of declaration times is here.
I’ll be covering the main results as they come in, and I’ll be
bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis, not least from our
network of thousands of political insiders all over the UK (or
Tweetdeck, as it is otherwise called). For added firepower, many
Guardian colleagues will also be contributing posts to the blogs, with
news and analysis.
Any general election is obviously thrilling but tonight we’re going to see, potentially, three separate narrative unfold. 1 - The election results, obviously, which will
decide the makeup of the House of Commons and – either quickly or
slowly, more on this later who forms the next government. 2 - Potential coalition negotiations. Any sit-down
talks are not going to start until Friday, but in 2010, when as soon as
the exit poll pointed to a hung parliament, Labour effectively opened
coalition talks with Lib Dems live on air, with leading figures like
Lord Mandelson hinting at possible concessions that his party could
offer. It would be surprising if we don’t see the same thing start
happening tonight. For example, assuming that the exit poll does not
predict a surprise Conservative majority, we’re likely to get some idea
of what the Tories might offer Nick Clegg. Those £12bn welfare cuts; by 6am, they could be out of the window.
Even if the Lib Dems lose around half their seats, as people expect,
they could still be in a position of power because, in a hung
parliament, the Lib Dems and the DUP would be the two “swing voter”
blocs – potentially capable of supporting either a Conservative or a
Labour government. There is going to be a ferocious debate in the Lib
Dems about what they do as a party. In TV studio and concession speeches
at election counts, that debate may kick off tonight. 3 - Inquests and leadership manoeuvring. Election
defeats always trigger into what went wrong, and they often lead to
resignations and leadership contests. It is polite to wait at least
until the next morning before attacking the party leadership, but in the
age of Twitter people are not always so patient. Here’s that famous
tweet from Rachel Johnson, Boris’s sister, after it became clear last
time that the Tories were not going to win an election.
She won’t be daft enough to do the same tonight (although, if she
does, we’ll post it here asap), there is bound to be some internal party
dissent breaking out.
We’ll be blogging right through the night until 7am. Then we’ll
launch a fresh blog covering either the installation of a new prime
minister or, more probably, some dramatic power-grabbing haggling.
If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow
copy http://www.theguardian.com/
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário