G.O.P. Seizes on Projection of Health Law’s Impact on Jobs
By ANNIE LOWREY and JONATHAN WEISMAN
A report projecting that the Affordable Care Act would shrink the work
force by the equivalent of more than two million full-time positions has
recharged the political debate over the health care law.
WASHINGTON
— A Congressional Budget Office analysis released Tuesday predicted
that the Affordable Care Act would shrink the work force by the
equivalent of more than two million full-time positions and recharged
the political debate over the health care law, providing Republican
opponents fresh lines of attack and putting Democrats on the defensive.
The
nonpartisan budget office’s analysis, part of a regular update to its
budget projections, was far more complicated than the Republican attack
lines it generated. Congressional Republican leaders called the findings
“devastating,” “terrible” and proof that the health care law was a job
killer.
The
report did say that the law would reduce hours worked and full-time
employment, but not because of a crippling impact on private-sector job
creation. With the expansion of insurance coverage, the budget office
predicted, more people will choose not to work, and others will choose
to work fewer hours than they might have otherwise to obtain
employer-provided insurance. The cumulative reduction of hours is large:
the equivalent of 2.5 million fewer full-time positions by 2024, the
budget office said.
The
report “rightfully says that people shouldn’t have job lock,” said
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader. “We live in a
country where we should be free agents. People can do what they want.”
“Republicans talk about losing millions of jobs. That simply isn’t true,” Mr. Reid said.
But
Republicans, even those versed in the nuances of the budget reports,
did not hold back. Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of the
Republican leadership, acknowledged the administration’s position — that
the coming decline in the work force could be the result of workers’
choosing different career paths. But, he noted, the budget office had
previously projected a far smaller impact.
“No
matter how you calculate this number or how the administration tries to
explain it away, it’s about two and a half times as high as the number
was when they looked at it the first time,” Mr. Blunt said. “They can
say anything they want, but this number is a lot worse than anybody
thought.”
Republicans seized on the report as evidence of the health care law’s adverse effect on the economy.
“For
years, Republicans have said that the president’s health care law
creates uncertainty for small businesses, hurts take-home pay and makes
it harder to invest in new workers,” Speaker John A. Boehner said. “The
middle class is getting squeezed in this economy, and this C.B.O. report
confirms that Obamacare is making it worse.”
Democrats
clearly understood the political damage the report could have. Senator
Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat facing a tough political environment for her
re-election bid in New Hampshire, told reporters, “You guys are going to
politicize it no matter what happens.”
Senator
Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, who has embraced a number
of bills to tweak the health care law, called disappointing enrollment
figures and work-force declines the law’s “Waterloo.”
“Pretty
soon the numbers don’t line up and the math doesn’t equal out, and you
have to make some adjustments,” he said. “You do it every day in your
life. The government’s got to do it.”
The
budget office analysis found that the law, in effect, nudges workers to
work less. The insurance expansion reduces the need for people to take a
full-time job just to get coverage. The premium subsidies effectively
bolster household income. Higher taxes for richer households also reduce
the incentive to work.
But
it will also have an effect on businesses, the report said, including
by encouraging them to reduce employee hours to avoid the “employer
mandate.” The overall demand for labor would not change, in other words,
but businesses might arrange their workers’ schedules differently to
avoid having to provide them with health care.
The
report stressed that there seemed to be no effect on part-time
employment yet; the law’s penalties on businesses that fail to provide
insurance for workers do not hit until 2015.
The White House pushed back against the Republican attacks, arguing for the nuance contained in the budget office report.
“Claims
that the Affordable Care Act hurts jobs are simply belied by the
facts,” said the White House press secretary, Jay Carney. “The report
itself says that there is ‘no compelling evidence that part-time
employment has increased as a result of the A.C.A.'”
The
budget office also estimated that about a million fewer Americans than
expected will receive health insurance coverage in 2014 through the
marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act, primarily because
of the troubled rollout of the exchanges. It also revised its estimates
of the number of people receiving coverage through Medicaid and
Children’s Health Insurance Plan coverage, lowering it by about one
million.
The
budget office now estimates that six million Americans will enroll
through the exchanges in their first year, rather than seven million,
and that expanded Medicaid and other public programs will enroll eight
million Americans, rather than nine million.
But
the long-term effect of the problems with the rollout remains unclear,
the budget office said, declining to alter its coverage projections for
later years.
“Over
time, more people are expected to respond to the new coverage options,
so enrollment is projected to increase sharply in 2015 and 2016,” the
budget office said in its report. It estimates that as of 2017, about 25
million Americans will obtain coverage on the exchanges.
The
news in the report is not all bad for Democrats. The office also sees
the budget deficit falling to $514 billion in the 2014 fiscal year, or
about 3 percent of economic output, from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Many
economists consider deficits of that size to be sustainable in the long
term.
The
budget office sees the deficit continuing to drop in the 2015 fiscal
year, to $478 billion, or about 2.6 percent of economic output. From
there, though, it anticipates that the deficit will rise again as
government spending picks up, absent congressional action.
Correction: February 4, 2014
An earlier version of a headline accompanying this article on the home page was incorrect. The health law is projected to result in two million fewer workers, according to the Congressional Budget Office, not two million fewer jobs.
An earlier version of a headline accompanying this article on the home page was incorrect. The health law is projected to result in two million fewer workers, according to the Congressional Budget Office, not two million fewer jobs.
COPY http://www.nytimes.com/
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário