More dispatches from Guardian colleagues out and about in Scotland on this momentous day. Tom Clark and Phil Maynard are filing video reports from their travels:
Earlier on, we caught up with Oxford University polling expert Steve
Fisher in Glasgow, and asked him about what to look out for as the
results pour in. He told us Inverclyde would be an early test of the
theory that the working class is swinging behind a Yes, and that East
Lothian could prove an instructive bellwether of which way Middle
Scotland is swinging.
How to tell which way Scotland is swinging.
Quite a few people have opinions on the referendum. Quite a few of
those have written for Comment is Free. But you can’t read them all
(well, you could, but you’d miss the results). So our fine colleagues at
Cif have put together this top 15 of the most popular pieces on the independence debate.
Top of the list is George Monbiot: Scots voting no to independence would be an astonishing act of self-harm.
My colleague Ewen Macaskill is pounding the streets of Glasgow today. He sends this dispatch:
If you had to choose just one place in Scotland that encapsulates
the referendum debate, it is the statue of the late Donald Dewar,
Scotland’s first First Minister, at the top of Buchanan Street. This has
been a gathering place for Yes supporters to deliver speeches, sing and
dance.
I bumped into Scottish artist and sculptor Kenny Mackay at the
statue. He has a special interest in it since he made it. He thinks its
popularity as a political forum is that the steps in the immediate area
around it have created an amphitheatre.
I asked him how he felt about the irreverent strain among
Glaswegians in placing traffic cones on Dewar’s head: ‘I feel it is
disrespectful to him and to the work of art.’
In spite of being the sculptor of the great Scottish Labour leader,
Mackay is a Green. He has not yet voted but is planning to: a yes vote.
‘The no campaign has been too negative,’ he said.
The statue of
the late Donald Dewar, the Scottish parliament’s first First Minister,
overlooks a ‘Yes’ rally in Glasgow on the eve of polling.Photograph: Ken Jack/Demotix/Corbis
The Guardian’s Mike White has had his finger on more pulses than an NHS trauma nurse, and he’s taking the temperature of voters in Kirkcaldy’s High St:
As his car swung past the bus station in Gordon Brown’s home town of
Kirkcaldy yesterday a young man waved a clenched fist out of his car
window and shouted “Ayeee” at no one in particular. “ I think he’s a
Yesser” explained a passerby helpfully.
With Scotland voting in record numbers on the greatest existential
challenge to the British state since Spitfire dogfights in 1940, not
every Scot felt quite so gleefully uninhibited. Far from it. Along
Kirkcaldy’s High St, struggling as so many do, No supporters heading to
and from the Philip hall polling station were decidedly more reticent.
Some lowered their voices before saying “ Definitely no.” Others
refused to reveal their binary choice, though their tone and body
language spoke for them. “ I’m glad it’s nearly over,” said one woman,”
except it won’t be.” “ I just hope common sense prevails” muttered an
Englishman (“ I came here on holiday 17 years ago and fell in love with
it”). He did not feel the need to spell out what he meant.
Is it fear of intimidation or reprisal, as some fervently assert? Or
simply trepidation about an uncertain future if yes triumphs in the
overnight count?
Thanks to Paul Owen, who’s now taking a well-earned breather before the results start to come in. This is Claire Phipps, taking over the liveblog again from Edinburgh; Richard Adams remains on board in London.
Matchbook.com
writes to reveal that the odds on Scotland leaving the union have moved
from 7/2 to 5/1, suggesting a yes outcome is much less likely. The odds
for no are 2/11.
Americans haven’t taken much interest in the
Scottish independence vote because – as one American explained it to me –
they assumed that it already was independent based on viewings of
Braveheart.
But that has changed recently as the polls tightened, and so our colleagues at Guardian US have written a rough guide to comparing US and Scottish independence:
Stop an American on the street
and ask them what they think of Scottish independence, and you will
likely be greeted with a smiling confession of ignorance, before
dislodging a general statement of support, along the lines of “Freedom! Good!” If it’s ditching Britain we’re talking about, all the better.
The sentiment may be superficial, but underlying it is a real
historical sympathy, rooted in America’s own revolutionary tradition.
A man dressed as Captain America poses with Tea Party supporters in Washington.Photograph: Jonathan Ernst / Reuters/Reuters
Updated
And on that note, here is John Crace’s digested referendum campaign:
You could begin in 1707 with the Act of Union. You could begin with
the 1997 referendum that led to the creation of the Scottish
parliament. To keep it simple, though, it’s easiest to start with the
2011 Scottish elections in which the Scottish Nationalist party (SNP)
won an overall majority for the first time: as a referendum on Scottish
independence had been one of the key points in the SNP’s manifesto, the
coalition government in Westminster was rather obliged to grant one.
This was, in many ways, as awkward for Alex Salmond, the Scottish
first minister and leader of the SNP, as it was for David Cameron, who,
along with the rest of Westminster, preferred to ignore the noisy
northern neighbours. Salmond had built a career on being the underdog,
the permanent outsider; being ignored only increased his popularity in
Scotland. Now he was being taken seriously, it was time to put up or
shut up. If he lost the referendum, he would lose a large part of his
political raison d’etre. Independence would be off the menu for decades.
David Cameron and Alex Salmond.Photograph: Pool/Getty Images
All of a sudden independence wasn’t the only game in town. “How
about we have three questions on the referendum?” he suggested to
Cameron. “Yes, No and Devo Max.” George Osborne advised Cameron to play
hardball. The polls indicated that given a simple choice of yes or no,
the Scots would vote no. So why give Salmond a get out of jail card?
They’d never liked him anyway. The only concession Salmond was able to
get was a lowering of the voting age to 16, which he reckoned would
increase the yes vote by a small margin.
Whereupon everyone but the Scots forgot about the referendum for a
couple of years as everyone south of the border – and most of those
north – assumed a no vote was a formality and that come September 19 it
would be business as usual. What got discounted in the calculation was
the Scottish dislike of the Tories, the dislike of the Westminster
establishment in general and the belief that Scotland had always been
given a raw deal. Little by little, the polls moved towards yes and, as
they did so, the no campaign began to bring out the big guns, with
Gordon Brown bussed in to take over from Alistair Darling as leader.
Panic properly set in less than two weeks before the election when
an opinion poll indicated the yes campaign was ahead for the first time.
The three parties in Westminster – along with every broadcaster and
newspaper – realised there was a turn-up on the cards and sent every
available hand on deck up north to save the Union. Cameron, Miliband,
President Obama, the EU, the Queen, Bob Geldof and JK Rowling all
pleaded for the Scots to see sense. “You’ll be broke. You’ll rot in
prisons abroad. You’ll never get out of Scotland alive.” Cameron even
promised the Devo Max option he’d refused three years before. The Scots
could have anything. Love. Money. Holidays. Blue skies. Anything but
independence.
Too late for many Scots, including many traditional Labour voters.
They had been given a glimpse of a promised land; of a fairer, more
equal society where the sun would shine and Andy Murray would win
Wimbledon again. Nor were they much bothered if it all went pear-shaped.
So what if they had no jobs, if their health service collapsed, if they
were left with Fred the Shred to run what was left of their financial
services industry. At least they would have been bankrupted by their own
rather than England. Better to be a poor man than a slave.
And so it went down to the wire.
This video for non-Brits explaining how we got to this point is pretty useful for Brits too, to be honest.
And here Solareye of the group Stanley Odd gives his own history of the union as a spoken-word poem.
Why would the English bother with a union of inequality
Was this a decision based on the spirit of generosity?
The Green party of England and Wales gets in touch to point out that it is “the only party with an English MP who have actively campaigned for a yes vote”.
Green party leader Natalie Bennett says:
The Green Yes campaign, part of a broader, radical independence
drive, has been an inspiration, great to watch. When I visited Edinburgh
this month the excitement was evident, the possibilities broad. For all
of us the idea that you can vote for change and get it is a powerful
message for the future of the stale, failed politics of England and
Wales.
Bennett also says: “I’m not going to tell them how to vote, but I hope they do vote yes.”
More contributions from readers taking up the GuardianWitness assignment to map the mood of Scottish voters today:
As I returned from the polling station (and dropping my son at
nursery), I helped an elderly woman who couldn't get her walker down the
kerb. She started talking about the referendum. She was scared that
the divisions between people might be bad tomorrow. she kept saying,
'I've got tears in my eyes'. she was clearly going to vote no from
everything she said, but she also said "I'd dearly love home rule". This
echoes many people who can see both sides of the argument. When the
votes are counted, we'll need to be aware of the nuances in voting, not
the dyadic 'yes' - 'no'
Crossing my fingers for you Scotland. I hope you get it right,
and that would be a resounding yes. I hope one day we will be able to
join you as an independent democratic nation.
Brilliant atmosphere in George Square yesterday - sense of
optimism and hope were tangible. Loved seeing all the children and
young people there as well.
Before you vote today, I would ask you to think long and hard about:
Once the oil has all gone then what? how are 5 million people going
to support a country when 65 million have struggled to come through the
global credit crunch?
Surely being part of a bigger stronger country and building and
sharing on each others strengths and weaknesses and halving each others
burdens is the best way to go/stay.
These are just my views but in a time of financial uncertainty is now
really the best time to think about going solo when your leader cant
even tell you what currency you will be paid in after the vote?
* Are retailers really scaremongering about hiking up prices? simple
logistics would tell you otherwise. At the moment the cost is shared
across the UK, when this stops the cost will be pasted on to you.
* Why are the banks seeking to register in the UK opposed to Scotland?
* How can you reduce your taxes when you have to build a central bank
costing billions, clear you share of the debt, manage the NHS etc all
on a smaller population?
If they are not scaremongering YOU are the ones that will have to pay for the huge error made and there is no 2nd chance.
Think long and hard and do not let your dislike for the current
Westminster lot influence your decision, these guys will be gone in
time but independence is forever.
It is a great pipe dream but unless you have all the answers set in stone, you cant risk the fallout surely.
Good luck and decide wisely.
Updated
Esther Addley reports from Yell, Shetland’s second-largest island.
It’s to the north of the main island, and home to 1,000 people, but
its main settlement, Mid Yell, was quiet today, thanks in part, perhaps,
to a low, drizzling cloud which hugged the island.
Mid Yell beach.Photograph: Esther Addley/Guardian
If most of the political symbols on Unst favour a yes vote, some in
Mid Yell declared their support for yes, with a large sign on a house
going into the village and another on a nearby bus stop. ‘I would say
everybody on Yell has an idea how they will vote,’ said Stephen
Saunders, who was working with three others to divide the flock sheep he
jointly owns into ewes, set for ‘drenching’, and lambs to be sold.
Stephen Saunders (left).Photograph: Esther Addley/Guardian
Had the island been caught up in the excitement seen elsewhere in
Scotland? ‘There’s been a lot of debating going on; I don’t know about
excitement.’
He was ‘clear’ how he intended to vote later, though preferred not
to specify. ‘I have listened to all the debates but I’ve always been
fairly positive on what way I would go.’
Shirley Nicolson, dismantling cardboard boxes in Linkshouse Stores,
said today didn’t feel like any other election day. ‘More people are
certainly going to participate. It’s not just half a dozen politicians
trying to get your vote. It’s two sides, yes or no. You either believe
yes or you believe no.’
She had already sent her postal vote, but she didn’t think the
drizzly weather would put others off turning out to vote. ‘I wouldn’t
say this is normal weather but we are used to it.’
Updated
Foreign exchange dealers seem to have woken up and decided that the independence vote might not affect sterling as much as they thought, according to the FT:
Sterling is strengthening markedly against the US dollar on rising
expectations that Scots will reject a vote for independence at today’s
referendum.
Of the 16 biggest currencies in the world the pound and the
Norwegian krone are the only ones to climb against the resurgent dollar
today, with sterling climbing 0.5 per cent against the greenback – the
most in a week.
Or as Business Insider puts it rather more pithily:
Updated
Labour leader Ed Miliband has been out and about in Glasgow drumming up support for a no vote today. Labour leader Ed Miliband canvasses voters in Glasgow today.Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
This interactive on Indy-Scot.com has looked at 4.7m tweets on the #IndyRef hashtag over the past six months, writes George Arnett.
As well as giving how many people were tweeting the words yes and no
over time, it also gives a bit of information about which topics were
mentioned the most during the debate.
Oil, the NHS and pensions were the key issues spotted by the analysis.
As this has been an argument about Scotland’s future, it also makes
sense to look at whether people have hope or fear about what awaits
them. The interactive has a visualisation showing whether hope or fear
were dominating following key moments such as the two campaign debates
and the release of Alex Salmond’s white paper on Scotland.
Katie Allen spent some of the morning at a small
manufacturer of bullet-proof vests outside Glasgow, where workers were
trickling in late after their boss gave them the first two hours off to
go and vote.
Sarkar Defence founder Sam Sarkar is in celebratory mood as he takes
a kebab lunch break with his staff. It is 20 years to the day since he
stepped off a plane from India, a 17-year-old boy looking to study in
Glasgow.
“This is my adopted home. I very much consider myself as Scottish and I have Indian values,” says the 37-year-old.
“Everything we have achieved as a business is down to being in Scotland. Scotland has been good to me as a business.”
Over lunch his staff continue the friendly exchange of referendum jibes they say has been going on for months.
Sarkar supports independence after what he describes as a year of
research into the numbers. The clincher for him was the threat of the UK
leaving the EU.
“For my business it is absolutely critical to be in Europe. I do not
want an in or out referendum on that,” he says. “For me this is the
safer route to staying in Europe and maintaining the status quo … It
will take time but we will be in Europe. And the relationships will be
different. The UK is not the flavour of the month in many countries.”
A voter of the
future holds a Saltire pennant while heading to a local polling station
with parents (out of picture) to vote in the Scottish independence
referendum in Glasgow.Photograph: Robert Perry/EPA
Scotland breaking away from the UK would not lead to extra cash
going from the Treasury to Northern Ireland, Stormont health minister
Edwin Poots has warned, Henry McDonald writes from Belfast.
Poots said there would no financial boost to Northern Ireland in the
event of a yes vote, as his Democratic Unionist party held a series of
low key events across Belfast urging Scots to stay in the union, with
former Belfast deputy lord mayor Ruth Patterson holding up placards
telling Scotland: ‘We don’t want you to go’. Another banner read ‘We
still love you so’, signing off, ‘your friend, Northern Ireland’.
SDLP Derry assembly member Coum Eastwood suggested that a yes vote
could lead to a similar poll on Northern Ireland’s future within the UK.
Eastwood said: “It’s important that Irish nationalism begins the job
of learning from the Scottish example. Without firing one shot, the
Scottish people have had a mature, rational and passionate debate about
independence and their future.
“We now need to set about the work of persuading those who identify
with the Ulster-Scots and British traditions that their interests would
be best served in a re-imagined, progressive and inclusive united
Ireland. And more than that, we have to ensure that any discussion about
a united Ireland sets out how those who may not consider themselves as
Irish nationalists will play a full role in that society.”
Here is a reminder of the expected declaration times for the results tonight.
Here are some of the key constituencies’ declaration times as a
list, with the Guardian’s rough expectations of whether each one will
vote yes or no in brackets:
2am - North Lanarkshire - 6.3% of the population (yes)
2am - Perth and Kinross - 4.2% (no)
2am - Western Isles - 0.5% (yes)
3am - Aberdeenshire - 4.8% (no)
4am - Fife - 7.1%
4am - Highlands - 4.4% (no)
5am - Glasgow - 11.5% (yes)
5am - Edinburgh - 8.8% (no)
5am - Borders - 2.2% (no)
6am - Aberdeen - 4.2% (no)
Artist Ellie Harrison has created an artwork for Edinburgh’s Talbot Rice Gallery consisting of cannons that will shoot confetti in the event of a yes vote.
If there is a no vote, they won’t shoot anything, mirroring the “huge
sense of anticlimax” if independence is rejected, Harrison explains.
The Wall Street Journal posts this photo from Cuckoo’s Bakery in
Edinburgh, which is showing the percentage of cakes sold representing
yes, no and don’t know. Looks like the union is safe. Photo credit: Russell Cheyne/Reuters
John Whittingdale, the Conservative chairman of the select
committee, has joined the revolt against the deal for Scotland struck by
the three party leaders in the last days of the election campaign (see earlier), reports political editor Patrick Wintour.
Whittingdale said: “I for one would be very concerned at the idea that
my electorate would continue to subsidise the Scots even after they have
been given all these powers to raise even more money.”
How has the campaign been fought?
The lead campaigners for independence are the SNP, with its
charismatic leader Alex Salmond and his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, the
most recognisable faces for many voters. The Scottish Green party, a
smaller group that has two representatives in the Holyrood parliament, also backs yes.
But the striking thing about the pro-independence campaign has been
that so much of it has been taking place outside the normal political
sphere.
As the Guardian’s Libby Brooks reported earlier this year:
This is a place full of individuals who are doing things that they
have never done before: taking part in campaigning, attending public
meetings, having conversations about the future that they want for
themselves and their children with an urgency that they have never
displayed before.
The civic energy unleashed by the yes movement – and it is a
movement: cross-party, cross-generation, cross-class – is palpable.
Certainly the SNP party machinery is heavily involved, certainly the
official Yes Scotland campaign is funded largely by SNP supporters, but not even the weariest cynic could suggest that this is a purely SNP affair.
The main Westminster parties – supported by much of the press, in Scotland and the wider UK; only the Glasgow-based Sunday Herald has publicly backed a
yes vote – are united in their opposition to independence.
Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour have campaigned for a no
vote under the umbrella of Better Together,
but have been forced, in the face of a hefty rise in support for yes,
to woo wavering voters with plans for increased devolution of powers to
Scotland – so-called devo max.
Despite the galvanising effect of grassroots engagement, this hasn’t
always been the cleanest of fights. Alistair Darling, the former UK
chancellor of the exchequer who now heads up the Better Together
campaign, accused Salmond of behaving like North Korean leader Kim Jong-il
and said the campaign had been damaged by threats and intimidation. The
no camp, too, has faced calls to change tack after its frequent attacks
on SNP proposals for Scotland’s post-independence future were dubbed “Project Fear”. There has been much criticism of the online actions of so-called cybernats – nationalists who targeted prominent figures, such as Olympic cyclist Sir Chris Hoy, who have spoken out against independence. Labour MP Jim Murphy
suspended his pro-union speaking tour of Scotland because of what he
labelled the “mob atmosphere” of Yes supporters, and this week Labour
leader Ed Miliband
was forced to give up on a walkabout in Edinburgh after he was
harangued by pro-independence protesters, who called him a liar and
“serial murderer”. Ed Miliband in Edinburgh on Tuesday.Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images
And there have been reports of campaign signs being taken down or vandalised by rival supporters:
This is the 4th time a Tory councillor has put up this "no thanks" banner in Annan. People keep changing no to YES. pic.twitter.com/xUg3N8Va2r
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) September 17, 2014
Yesterday the Scottish Police Federation issued a statement
accusing the media and no campaigners of exaggerating the extent of
aggression deployed during the Scottish referendum campaign. Brian
Docherty, the chairman of the federation, said:
One of the many joys of this campaign has been how it has awakened
political awareness across almost every single section of society. The
success enjoyed by the many should not be sullied by the actions of the
few.
Voters in Alex Salmond’s Aberdeenshire constituency were on the move
just as early as Scotland’s first minister, who came to to a polling
station in Strichen with two first time voters, writes Ben Quinn.
Among those from a later generation at the polling station in the
village was retired lorry driver Hendry Whittaker (73), who said: “We’ve
been waiting for this for a long time but what I’m doing today is for
the next generation.”
After voting, Salmond began to slowly make his way southwards to
Aberdeen, stopping off in the towns of Turriff and Ellon on the way.
He would have seen a number of no banners in the flat farming fields
around the constituency – put up, it was said, by farmers who had
traditionally voted SNP – but in the towns he got a warm welcome when he
went to join activists knocking on doors and handing in leaflets on
housing estates.
In Turriff, yes voters who were glad to see him included
Bangladesh-born curry house owner, Mohammed Faruk, who said: “He’s a
great man and what is happening today is because of him. I was happy to
get my vote away today.”
On an estate, mother of two Helen Reid was as elated as a number of
others coming out of of their houses to pose with him for selfies: “He’s
magic, god, isn’t he?”
“I was up early to vote and I knew what I was going to do –
freedom,” she added, prompting her Saltire-waving infant granddaughter
to shout the same word.
Not everyone was quite so excited about what the election meant. A
pensioner walking down a street as the first minister knocked on doors
said: “It’s been one of the bitterest campaigns I can remember since I
moved here form the north of England many decades ago. I think that what
it’s really about is anti-Englishness, but you dare not say it.”
Updated
More contributions from readers taking up the GuardianWitness assignment to map the mood of Scottish voters today:
Today,
On this Day of Days,
A Nation goes,
Or a Nation stays,
I wish you peace,
Whiche'er you choose
And peace with those,
Of differing views,
I wish you wisdom,
And the strength to meet,
The challenge of victory,
The pain of defeat.
Whether together,
Or with parted ways,
We're Scots together,
On this Day of Days.
Brilliant atmosphere in George Square yesterday - sense of
optimism and hope were tangible. Loved seeing all the children and
young people there as well.
Since 1754, ever since the law was changed in England making it
illegal for under-21s to marry without their parents’ consent,
lovestruck young couples have been crossing the border to get married at
Gretna Green, reports Helen Pidd.
On Thursday at 1pm, Sarah Smith and Jonathan Codona took the plunge
too. Smith, 21 and 20 weeks pregnant with the couple’s first child, is
from Annan, nine miles west from Gretna on the Scottish side. Her
husband, 32, is from across the border in Carlisle. They met at
Screwfix, a DIY shop in Carlisle. She worked in the warehouse; he was
her boss.
The significance of their cross-border union on such a momentous day
for Anglo-Scottish relations was not lost on the couple. “It’s a big
day for me and a big day for Scotland,” said Jonathan as he waited
nervously for his bride’s arrival. Only Sarah has a vote: she cast her
ballot before heading to the ceremony at Gretna’s famous blacksmith’s
shop. For over 250 years couples have said “I do” above the historic
anvil, when canny blacksmiths realised they could make more money
marrying brides and grooms than banging out horseshoes, and turned
self-styled “anvil priests”.
Sarah’s dad, a Scot who served in the King’s Own Scottish Borderers
regiment, chose the wedding date: “we’ll never forget their
anniversary”, he said, revealing that he was an emphatic “no” - “purely
because it’s what I know. I’m happy with the way things are.” He made
sure he voted before, not after the ceremony, “just in case we are not
in a fit state because of alcohol.”
Sarah herself voted no: “I just don’t see the point in changing
something that’s done me fine all my life, and I want the same for my
children. Living on the border we’re back and forth all the time.”
The couple worried that independence would complicate their lives.
“The other day Sarah had a toothache and they wouldn’t see her in
Carlisle because she’s registered in Annan – that sort of thing is only
going to get more difficult,” said Jonathan. Sarah, who now works in a
“cash for gold” shop in Carlisle, said people were already panicking.
“For a few weeks now, no one has been wanting change in Scottish notes.
Any Scottish money they have in their wallets they’re trying to pay
with,” she said.
Jonathan picked the location. His granny and grandpa eloped to
Gretna Green on a horse and cart as young lovers 100 years ago and he
wanted to follow their lead.
Jonathan’s father, Brian, 71, blinked back tears as he said he hoped
for two lasting unions: his son’s marriage and that which unites
England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. “I hope the only ‘yes’
today is the one my son gave,” he said.
Jonathan Codona and Sarah Smith getting married at Gretna Green.Photograph: Helen Pidd/Guardian
Updated
Severin Carrell and Frances Perraudin are at the counting centre in Edinburgh’s Royal Highland Centre.
All of Scotland’s 32 councils will be counting separately, Severin
explains in the video below, but all the results will be sent to
Edinburgh for announcement by Mary Pitcaithly, Scotland’s chief counting
officer. She will also announce the final official result, probably
about 6am.
Libby Brooks has been speaking to Carolina Perez of the yes
campaign’s get out the vote operation in Govan. She said she wanted to
help people “see through the fog of the media and give them the facts to
help them make their own decisions”.
Free taxi rides to polling places, opponents sharing chocolate bars
and coats against the drizzle, Dundee pies being handed out in the city
centre ... in the run-up to referendum day there were warnings that the
atmosphere could turn spiteful in what was billed as “yes” city but, in
the main, the mood was good humoured, positive, reports Steven Morris in Dundee.
Wayne O’Hare, co-owner of Dundee Taxis, was ferrying older people to
the voting booths. “It’s about making sure as many people as possible
get a chance to vote,” he said. One elderly passenger, Adelia Couttie,
said she had been waiting for this day for 60 years.
Labour MP Jim McGovern arrived in the city centre with a plate of
pies (or “pehs” as he and his supporters said they should be spelled).
He was harangued by a passer-by – but a yes supporter was quickly over
to apologise. “Sorry – he doesn’t represent us.”
Evelyn Stenhouse and Tom Dumphie, on opposite sides of the argument,
shared a Twix outside the Mill of Mains polling place. They reckoned
the yes voters came up the hill from the housing scheme, the no voters
from the private houses on the hill. “But we all have to get on tomorrow
no matter what,” said Stenhouse.
Police Scotland have stationed officers at many of Scotland’s
polling stations for the referendum, in an unusual move which is very
rarely seen for general or local council elections, reports Severin Carrell.
A Police Scotland spokesman said this was due to the very high
turnout of voters expected at the referendum, implying it was a public
safety issue rather than a risk of disorder. “We have no intelligence to
suggest there will be any problems,” he said.
Police Scotland have confirmed to my colleague Severin Carrell that a
44-year-old man “has been arrested in connection with an alleged
assault outside a polling place in Faifley Road, Clydebank at 8.30am
today and a report will be submitted to the Procurator Fiscal”.
This has been the only trouble reported at polling stations so far today.
A little earlier I spoke to Xavier Suarez, 46, a Catalan protesting
in favour of his region’s independence from Spain outside the Holyrood
parliament in Edinburgh.
Suarez said he had come to Scotland to help set up “a Europe of the
nations” and participate in “a great democratic party”. He said:
I’m not sure why it’s possible for the Scots to vote and not another part of the EU.
He said that if the Scots voted yes today, “Europe will have a big
problem, because Spain will have to accept new members in the EU.”
Catalonia is holding a referendum on independence in November, but
the Spanish government has said it will refuse to recognise it.
On a motorway bridge near Lockerbie a 10-car convoy of
Saltire-festooned cars and caravans has parked up, prompting plenty of
honks from lorries passing underneath, reports Helen Pidd.
James Orr, 75, from Johnstonebridge, his classic open top car
plastered with “yes” stickers, said it was “the most exciting day of my
life. I’m looking forward to all the fantastic opportunities for the
young people.”
Outside the polling station in central Lockerbie, a man in a yes
T-shirt is playing bagpipes – to the visible disapproval of half of
those passing by and delighting the rest.
Hope Robertson, 22, said she was “fed up with yes campaigners ramming
it in my face. I can’t wait for the morrow when it’s all over.”
She was voting no, she said, because her partner’s family were
farmers and they worried taxes would go up in an independent Scotland.
She works in a bookies and hopes the odds indicate a victory for the
union.
Police Scotland confirms first arrest of man for alleged assault at a polling station #indyref
— John Stevens (@johnestevens) September 18, 2014
This tweet from the Daily Mail’s John Stevens appears to be the
source of the information that there has been one arrest at a polling
station.
We are talking to the police now to try and work out what’s
happening. Our reporter Severin Carrell says that of five of the polling
stations he visited this morning two had police stationed outside. But
polling day does appear to have been peaceful so far. We will let you
know when we know any more.
Hi, this is Paul Owen taking the reins for the afternoon.
Blair McDougall, campaign director of the no campaign, has tweeted that the turnout is “very high”.
Reports of very high turnout already (the box I voted in was already full). Our supporters turning out & proudly voting No. #indyref
— Blair McDougall (@blairmcdougall) September 18, 2014
Summary
Voting is under way in the Scottish independence referendum, with
polling stations opening at 7am BST to – in some places – queues of
eager Scots. Voting continues until 10pm and the result will not be
known until the early hours of Friday morning, but here’s a rundown of
this morning’s highlights:
A final poll has put the no vote on 53% and yes on 47%, in line with other recent predictions. The poll,
by Ipsos Mori for the London Evening Standard, also found that 90% of
Scots said they intended to vote today, with 57% saying they based their
votes on hope more than fear.
A dog wearing a pro-independence yes bandana on a street in GlasgowPhotograph: Ian Macnicol/AFP/Getty
I (@Claire_Phipps) am taking a break from the blog for a few hours now; my colleague Paul Owen
is here with me in Edinburgh and is stepping in now with ongoing live
coverage and reports from our correspondents across Scotland.
I’ll be back around 5pm BST to continue the liveblog through to the close of polls at 10pm. Thanks for reading – stick around!
Updated
The final Ipsos Mori poll for the Evening Standard places the no lead at six points, writes data editor Alberto Nardelli.
This is in line with all other figures released in the final 48
hours of the campaign. The Better Together lead has ranged from 2-6
points, finally averaging about four points (poll of polls is here).
Based on these figures a no win remains likely, but not certain.
Polls rely on past behaviour to interpret the present. An independence
referendum and a vote where turnout is expected to be well in excess of
80% is a one-off event, which makes modelling outcomes significantly
more complicated. Those that analyse polls use not just statistical
margins of error, but empirical evidence - in other words, how well
polls have performed in the past - again, in a one-off event, this
option isn’t available.
In short, the polls are consistently saying no will win, and in 15 hours or so we will know if they’re all right, or all wrong.
My colleague Steven Morris, in Dundee, has been chatting to 16-year-old Brandyn Murphy, a student and first-time voter:
When I went into the polling place I didn’t really know what to do
because it was my first time voting. My girlfriend helped me. I felt it
was a big responsibility but I’ve taken it seriously. I’ve listened to
the debates and went to the event at the Hydro [a debate for young
voters held in Glasgow].
Once I’d voted I felt happy. It’s good that younger people are allowed to vote. It’s our future we’re talking about here.
Brandyn Murphy, 16, student and first-time voterPhotograph: Steven Morris/Guardian
Updated
Final poll: analysis
The Guardian’s political editor, Patrick Wintour, sends this analysis of the final poll, which gave No a six-point lead:
The final poll of the Scottish referendum campaign shows no on 53 % and yes on 47%, a slight strengthening of the no lead.
The same pollster, Ipsos Mori, in a poll for STV issued on Wednesday night,
showed only a two-point lead for no, but this was based on earlier
field work. All the leading pollsters have now issued final polls
suggesting a no win by 53% to 47%, or 52% to 48%, but Labour officials
remain cautious, saying it is still unclear how undecided voters will
break, or what could be the impact of a high turnout. As few as 200,000
votes could determine the outcome. The last Ipsos Mori poll shows 50% say they will vote no, with 45% saying they will vote yes, and 4% still undecided. Excluding those undecided, 53% of certain voters say they intend to vote no, with 47% to vote yes. Some 95% of Scots say they are certain to vote today,
including 90% of those aged 16 to 24. Both sides include supporters for
whom this is their first time registered to vote: 13% of yes supporters
and 10% of no voters.
In what is often a good predictor of the result, just under half
(46%) of Scottish voters believe the Better Together campaign will win
the referendum, compared with 30% who think the Yes campaign will win –
while a quarter (24%) say they don’t know.
Just under six in 10 (58%) of no voters say their fear for the
future if the no side loses was more important in deciding their vote
than hope if their side wins (at 36%). This compares with 80% of yes voters who said they voted because they were hopeful for the future if their side wins;just 16% of yes voters did so more out of fear than hope.
Overall, 57% of Scots based their votes on hope more than fear, with
38% basing their vote on fear if they lose more than hope if they win.
In contrast, majorities on both sides say they based their vote more
on practical consequences than feelings of national identity. Seven in
10 (70%) of yes supporters based their vote more on practical
consequences, with 78% saying the same from the no campaign. Overall, 74% said they based their vote on practical consequences, with 19% basing theirs more on national identity.
Updated
My colleague Philip Oltermann spots that it’s not just Scotland facing a big decision today:
Lots of readers of this liveblog will know very well how we got
here. For others, the imminent possible break-up of the United Kingdom
has come out of the blue. For those people, here’s a quick rundown of
several hundred years of Scottish history (with apologies for the
inevitable gaps). So, how did it come to this?
Some would say it all began with the Battle of Bannockburn, or even William Wallace (Braveheart), but the landslide victory of the Scottish National party (SNP) in the Scottish government elections in 2011 was the moment when the referendum was placed firmly on the political map.
The SNP’s surprise win – no party had won a majority at the Holyrood parliament in Edinburgh since Scots voted to set it up in 1997
– gave it, as first minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond put it, the
“moral authority” to deliver a referendum on full independence. At the
time, the British prime minister, David Cameron, said: “If they want to
hold a referendum I will campaign to keep our United Kingdom together
with every single fibre I have.” The date was set for 18 September 2014, with four million voters asked a single question: “Should Scotland become an independent country?” Britain’s prime
minister, David Cameron, right, and Scotland’s first minister, Alex
Salmond, sign the referendum agreement on 15 October, 2012.Photograph: Gordon Terris/The Herald/AP
Even after the Act of Union of 1707, Scotland had continued to do many things differently from the rest of Britain: its education system, law and justice systems, church and sports teams. But until the vote to set up a devolved government for Scotland in 1997, all major decisions were made in by the Westminster parliament in London. A referendum in 1979
on a devolved Scottish assembly garnered 51.6% of votes in favour, but
the vote was defeated on a technicality: the the low turnout meant those
voting in favour constituted only 32.9% of the electorate, below the
40% needed. Many Yes supporters felt cheated. (There is no turnout
requirement this time.)
Voters in Scotland have tended to eschew rightwing parties:
there is only one Scottish Conservative in the current Westminster
parliament. This imbalance became particularly acute with a run of
Conservative governments in the late 20th century, particularly that of
Margaret Thatcher, which determined policy from (and, some critics
levelled, for) England. Thatcher’s decision to trial a deeply unpopular poll tax in Scotland led to riots and – in 2006 – an apology from one of her successors as Tory leader, David Cameron.
The election of Tony Blair’s New Labour party in 1997 sparked change. A referendum for devolution was won
in September of that year, with the prime minister confidently
predicting the result would cement the union, not encourage further
cracks. But calls for more powers have grown and following an electoral wipeout for the centrist Liberal Democrats
in Scotland’s 2011 parliamentary elections – casualties of their
unpopular coalition with the Conservatives in Westminster – the stage
was set for an SNP government committed to a referendum on a decisive
break with the United Kingdom. Then prime minister Tony Blair wanted devolution not divorce for Scotland.Photograph: David Cheskin/PA
If you’d like to know even more, do take a look at our reading list (see here), which aims to answer just about any question you might have about why now, why here and which way the vote might go.
John Curtice, elections expert and professor of
politics at the University of Strathclyde, tweets this final verdict
from the poll of polls: yes 48%, no 52%.
Want to watch the campaign leaders heading into their polling stations and take a bet on which way they voted? Here you go: Scottish independence referendum: campaign leaders cast their votes.
More fabulous pictures arrive of voters making the most of their chance to decide the future of their country:
Let’s face it, we’d all be disappointed if this blog contained no bagpipes: A piper leads a ‘short walk to freedom’ march in EdinburghPhotograph: Paul Hackett/Reuters
Same goes for kilts, obviously: Voters outside a polling station in EdinburghPhotograph: Leon Neal /AFP/Getty Images
Updated
Final poll: instant reaction and analysis
IPSOS MORI final poll is No 53 and Yes 47. Less than a third of Scots think Yes will win....Now no more polls, just outcomes.
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) September 18, 2014
#indyref polls are clear. In 15 hours or so we'll know if they're all right, or all wrong.
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 18, 2014
Despite small no lead, most Scots polled expect No to win today (46%) in our fin poll. Only 30% expect Yes to win #indyref
— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) September 18, 2014
Last poll puts yes on 47%, no on 53%
Our last poll on #indyref No at 53% and Yes at 47%. 95% say they will vote to day for @standardnews
— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) September 18, 2014
Updated
The Guardian’s economics reporter, Katie Allen, is at the Scottish chambers of commerce in Glasgow:
Businesses in Scotland will need the country to unite around
whatever decision it wakes up to tomorrow if they are to continue to
shake off the downturn, says Garry Clark from the Scottish chambers of
commerce..
The head of policy and research at the organisation told the
Guardian its members saw both opportunities and risks in independence
but most importantly they needed clarity.
The last thing he wants to hear about on Friday morning is winners and losers.
‘We can’t afford to have any losers in Scotland,’ says Clark in the
chambers offices in George Square, Glasgow. ‘It is a debate that has
aroused passion and emotion on both sides. It’s a question of
channelling that emotion in the right direction tomorrow.’
Once the vote is in, unity will be vital: ‘The key is we have made a
decision and that we all work towards improving Scotland and the
outlook for the economy, whatever the result and we use whatever tools
at our disposal to do that.’
The organisation, which brings together 23 regional Scottish
chambers with some 11,000 companies between them, has remained impartial
during the campaign. But it did canvas its businesses during the
campaign over their concerns and outlook.
‘The majority of businesses see opportunity out of independence and
the majority also see risk and it’s how to balance this and trying to
ensure whatever the decision we get all of scotland is working together
again.’
The four key areas of concern raised by businesses were: taxation, currency, EU membership and regulation.
My colleague Esther Addley is on the island of Unst, at Scotland’s most northerly polling station: Scotland’s most northerly polling station.
She sends these dispatches:
Have counted at least 5 union jacks on main road in Unst, some w/ Shetland flag. No saltires yet #indyref#shetland
— esther addley (@estheraddley) September 18, 2014
Brief pause at Unst's famous bus stop, decorated in tribute to Mandela with comfy chair, small library #shetland
— esther addley (@estheraddley) September 18, 2014
And here’s the bus shelter itself. It is, indeed, rather magnificent: The bus shelter, a tribute to Nelson Mandela, on Unst, Shetland Photograph: Alamy
The Guardian’s Scotland reporter, Libby Brooks, is in Govan, Glasgow, hanging out with voters:
Standing outside the polling station with their bags of shopping at
their feet, Angela Colquhoun and Helen-Marie Tasker say they are
‘absolutely gobsmacked’ because polling day has come and they have still
not decided how to vote.
‘I’ve watched all the debates but you
get no answers,’ says Colquhoun, 41, a nursing auxiliary. She raises
concerns about currency and pensions. ‘One of the upsides of being
independent is the oil money, but that won’t last forever.’
Tasker,
33, a working mother, is likewise uncertain. ‘It’s been going on for
two years and nobody can give you a straight answer. I think David
Cameron should’ve been telling us the positives of staying in the UK. I
do wonder if it’s just scare stories, but there’s no going back after
this.’
Colquhoun says she’ll spend another few hours thinking
about it and come back to vote later. ‘People are scared about what’s
going to happen. They might vote no to stick with the known, but that’s
not a good enough reason.’
Undecided voters Angela Colquhoun and Helen-Marie TaskerPhotograph: Libby Brooks/Guardian
Updated
The campaign has been fought just as much across social media as it
has been with placards and meetings. And it’s a campaign that the yes
supporters seem to have clinched. SimilarWeb, which monitors web trends, spots that YesScotland has been attracting double the traffic heading to BetterTogether, the lead no campaign site: Bettertogether.net Vs Yesscotland.net: UK web traffic. SimilarWebPhotograph: SimpleWeb
Globally, too, the Yes message appears to have had more appeal to readers: Bettertogether.net Vs Yesscotland.net – global traffic. SimilarWebPhotograph: SimpleWeb
My colleague George Arnett also crunched some highly scientific numbers yesterday on the numbers of Twitter followers each side has amassed. He reported:
The campaign for an independent Scotland currently has more than
twice the number of followers (95,600) as its opponent Better Together
(41,200). Yes Scotland also has 307,960 Facebook likes to Better
Together’s 210,335.
To put this in perspective though, the two campaigns combined would
only make up 1.7% of the 8m plus follower base of Russell Brand, who has
recently weighed into the debate himself.
At time of writing, and perhaps boosted by Andy Murray’s timely
tweet, Twitter followers of Yes Scotland have topped 102,000; Better
Together has inched up to 42,155.
So far, I’ve failed to find any reliable data on Twibbons.
Updated
Tory backlash over promised devolution
Our political editor Patrick Wintour is reporting signs of a backlash against prime minister David Cameron – regardless of the result of the referendum. He writes:
Claire Perry, the rail minister, has become the first Conservative
front bencher to join the growing rebellion over promises to give
Scotland more powers regardless of today’s referendum result by warning
against “promises of financial party bags”.
She attacked the pledge made by the three main parties to maintain
the current level of funding for Scotland and devolve local tax raising
powers as hardly “hardly equitable” to the situation in England.
She warned against giving Scotland “a whole raft of goodies” which
will have to be “paid for by us south of the border to try and appease
the Yes voters”.
Writing in the Wiltshire Gazette and Herald, Perry said: ‘The
funding formula for Scotland, the rather cobbled together Barnett
formula, already delivers per capita funding north of the border well in
excess of that spent per head in the other parts of the union, and it
there is a proposal to allow devolution of local taxation, as well as
maintaining the current level of funding a a dollop from the UK
Parliament, then that can hardly be equitable for those of us in the
Devizes constituency and all other areas in the non-Scottish union.
‘Cool, calm analysis, not promises of financial party bags to appease Mr Salmond, are what is needed from tomorrow and onwards.’
Her remarks were immediately endorsed by another Conservative MP,
Anne Marrie Morris, on Twitter. Other Tories have been voicing their
doubts, and it looks as if David Cameron faces a hard sell explaining
the concession that have been made about further devolution, and powers
to Scotland.
The Conservatives had in 2010 said the Barnett formula – responsible
for setting the subsidy for Scotland – was reaching the end of its
useful life, but Cameron has said it will continue. Clegg has agreed but
also adjustments need to be made for the Welsh.
Perry also said: “Either way, I am expecting parliament to be
recalled next week to understand the result and any proposed
settlement.”
Jesse Norman, another senior Tory backbencher has also pointed to
the inequities in funding saying Scotland gets £10,152 per head. Wales,
despite being much poorer, gets £9,709. England gets £8,529.
James Gray, another Tory MP for former shadow Scottish secretary,
has joined the rebellion, saying: “Talk about feeding an addiction. The
more you give them, the more they want, and we would be back with calls
for independence within a decade or sooner.
“For too long the rights of 55 million English have been subordinated to the shouting of 4.5 million Scots. That must end.”
Updated
Scottish Green party co-convener – and a lead yes campaigner – Patrick Harvie is still waiting to cast his vote. He doesn’t seem too downhearted about having to stand in line:
I'm queuing to vote. *Queuing*!
— Patrick Harvie (@patrickharvie) September 18, 2014
Updated
Alistair Darling, former UK chancellor and leader of the Better Together campaign, has cast his vote in Edinburgh: Alistair
Darling with his wife Maggie (left) and no campaigners outside the
polling station at the Church Hill Theatre in EdinburghPhotograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Updated
Readers have been enthusiastically taking up the GuardianWitness assignment to map the mood of Scottish voters today.
A reader who goes by the name of silentglow – undaunted by the communications problems that have hampered our own reporter on the northerly Shetland island of Unst – sends us this snap of divided neighbourly opinions:
Even in Scotland's remote reaches of Unst, in the Shetland
Islands, opinion is divided although the Shetland flag often waves in
place of a Scottish flag
Esther Addley
is outside North Unst public hall, the northernmost polling station in
Scotland. It took her a while to get there, there is hardly anyone to be
seen, the scenery is bleak and beautiful, but the comms means it’s hard
to send pictures. She tells us this:
To reach the island of Unst from Shetland’s capital Lerwick, you
drive north, passing the huge oil refinery of Sullom Voe, then take a
short ferry crossing to Yell and, having crossed that island, on to the
most northerly inhabited island in what is still, for now, the United
Kingdom.
Unst’s scenery is spectacular – huge, open moorland valleys and
rugged coastline, with scattered small settlements and farms. It is grey
and drizzly here today, and islanders are wrapped in sensible macs as
they head out to vote.
This is overwhelmingly No territory, according to Karen Gray, behind
the till at Skibhoul Stores in Baltasound. ‘Here in the shop, because
it’s a big topic of conversation, most folk are saying No. That’s the
feeling from the community.’ She is still undecided, but is definitely
planning to vote when she finishes her shift. Her father has raised a
Union Jack outside his home, one of a number on the road between
Belmont, where the ferry docks, and Haroldswick in the north of the
island.
Several are accompanied the Shetland flag, a navy banner with white
upright cross. If there are Scottish saltires flying here, they are
markedly less obvious. But customer Michael Malone said he was ‘leaning
to yes’, though he wouldn’t make his mind up until he entered the booth.
‘If you don’t take a chance you won’t get anywhere.’
At the North Unst public hall, the most northerly polling station on
the island, a steady trickle of voters arrived during the morning to
cast their votes. Most preferred not to talk. ‘Why is it important to
vote? Are you having a laugh?’ asked one man wearing a blue Scotland cap
as he went in to cast his vote. ‘This is the most important vote in our
country’s history.’
‘This will still be Britain even if we vote yes,’ said a woman
hurrying inside. ‘These are the British isles even if Scotland goes
independent.’
The Isle of Unst in the Shetland Islands.Photograph: Murdo Macleod
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