Churning Storm Nears Hurricane Strength
William Widmer for The New York Times
Gerald Herbert/Associated Press
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David J. Phillip/Associated Press
William Widmer for The New York Times
William Widmer for The New York Times
Meggan Haller for The New York Times
Meggan Haller for The New York Times
Angel Valentin for The New York Times
Allen Williams Sr. found space in a shelter in Belle Chasse, La.
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON
Published: August 28, 2012
Tropical Storm Isaac gathered strength early Tuesday and was on the verge of becoming a Category 1 hurricane as it rumbled toward the Gulf Coast, though precisely where it will make landfall remains guesswork, forecasters said Tuesday.
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Workers boarded up windows at City Hall in New Orleans on Monday.
Chris O'Meara/Associated Press
A jogger on Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa, Fla., Monday.
The storm is projected to land somewhere along the Mississippi or
Southeast Louisiana coast on Tuesday evening, according to the National
Weather Service.
Even before then, the Southern coast — and areas extending inland from
Louisiana to the Florida panhandle — is likely to be buffeted by strong
winds, heavy rain and flooding. The threat of tornadoes will also
increase as the storm approaches.
The storm had been predicted to strike as a Category 2 hurricane, but
its eventual force was revised downward Tuesday morning. It has been
fickle and confounded predictions all along.
On Tuesday morning, the massive storm was moving slowly northward, about
160 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the
National Hurricane Center.
The most serious danger may not be from the 85-mile-per-hour winds, but
from the enormous amount of water that the storm will be bringing with
it and pushing in front of it. Officials encouraged those in low-lying
areas to leave, warning of 12-foot storm surges along a broad area of
the coast and days of nonstop rain, in some places possibly adding up to
20 inches of water.
“A slow-moving, large system poses a lot of problems,” Rick Knapp, the
director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a conference call
with reporters, describing the risks as “life-threatening, potentially.”
Louisiana residents were running out of time to decide whether to stay
or go. Tropical-storm-force winds were expected to arrive overnight,
rendering a last-minute escape more dangerous than sticking around. Gov.
Bobby Jindal urged people in low-lying areas and places outside of
levee protection to leave for safer ground. In any case, he urged
residents to make up their minds quickly.
“Today is the day, for those that want to leave, today is the day they
should move,” Mr. Jindal said at a news briefing, surrounded by the
presidents of several coastal parishes.
A mandatory evacuation of New Orleans is triggered by a Category 3
hurricane, a status this storm is unlikely to reach. But the time frame
for a safe and effective citywide evacuation expired on Monday anyway.
So those who remain here, as most have, will be marking the seventh
anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Wednesday not with ribbon cuttings
and modest ceremonies as planned, but by hunkering down under heavy
rains and winds.
All storms have their own personalities, and this storm promises a very
different experience from Hurricane Katrina. While it could possibly hit
New Orleans directly — unlike Hurricane Katrina, which landed in
Mississippi but sent surge waters against the city’s faulty levees and
flood walls — this storm will have to contend with a $14.5 billion flood
protection system that has been all but completed by the Army Corps of
Engineers.
This system and a rapport between parish, state and federal authorities
that is far stronger than the dysfunctional relationship that
characterized the response effort to Hurricane Katrina, bolstered the
confident statements made by city officials about New Orleans’s ability
to bear up.
“We know now, based on the latest information, which is always subject
to change, that we are going to have a hurricane that is going to hit
New Orleans,” Mayor Mitchell J. Landrieu said at a news briefing on
Monday. But, he added, “there’s nothing this storm will bring us that we
are not capable of handling.”
After a tremor of anxiety on Saturday night and Sunday, when it became
clear that the storm had turned its gaze to Louisiana, the sort of
autopilot pragmatism that comes from living in hurricane country kicked
in. By Sunday night, New Orleans residents had stripped bare the shelves
of some grocery stores and sucked some gas stations dry.
The decision to stay for most people was perhaps in part due to reports
on Monday morning that the storm had yet to — in the disparaging phrase
of several meteorologists — “get its act together,” and was projected to
make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane or possibly even a strong
tropical storm. But that forecast turned worse by the afternoon, and
officials urged residents all along the Gulf Coast not to focus on the
projected intensity, or even the location of landfall. A huge, wet and
sluggish storm like this one could wreak havoc far and wide, regardless
of its strength, they said, just as Tropical Storm Lee last year did
with flooding as far north as Pennsylvania and New York.
The storm has already forced the evacuation of workers from 346 oil
and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, which are responsible for 17
percent of domestic oil production and 6 percent of natural gas
production, though it has so far had little effect on the price of
commodities. It has also led to at least one confirmed tornado, in Vero
Beach, Fla., and has put officials far beyond the shore on alert for
more.
“We’re still recovering, so we are geared up as much as any staff
members can be,” said Yasamie August, information manager for the
Alabama Emergency Management Agency, in a state that was devastated by
tornadoes last year.
Mandatory evacuations have been announced in low-lying areas in Alabama
and Mississippi, and shelters have opened all along the coast. The
evacuations were also announced in several communities outside the
levees in south Louisiana, as well as for the entire parish of St.
Charles, west of New Orleans.
Renee Simpson, a spokeswoman for the parish, said the evacuation was
called for because much of the parish is unprotected by levees from the
surging gulf. She pointed out that a mandatory evacuation did not mean
people would be arrested or roads closed, but amounted to a warning
that, with electrical failures and extensive flooding likely, people who
chose to stay would essentially be on their own.
This did not seem to bother many St. Charles residents, who seemed
mildly amused that people would leave for anything under a Category 3.
“Category 1 or 2, I’m staying; strong 3, 4 or 5, yeah, I’m out,” said
Dale Daunie, a teacher in Luling. “We’re just going to grin and bear it
for a little bit. You know, barbecue and make the best out of it.”
Anjanette Joseph, a nurse in Destrehan, concurred with that analysis,
judging the risks not worth the inconveniences of a hasty exit. “All the
hotels were booked up for pets, and we have a dog and a mouse, so we
decided to stay,” she said.
This attitude concerned Louisiana officials, who warned that multiple
days of rain on top of dangerous storm surges would severely test local
drainage systems and that days without power in a Louisiana summer is
not something anyone would want. But the gulf mentality dies hard.
“I’m not afraid of the storm,” said Denise Maul, a retired nurse who has
an apartment in New Orleans with her husband. Her car was loaded, and
she was planning to leave on Monday afternoon, she said. But they are
only going to Mobile, where they have a house. It was a matter of
comfort, not security. “My dad used to always say, ‘Rainy weather ain’t
good for nothing but ducks and lovers,’ ” she said.
Reporting was contributed by Kim Severson from Atlanta; John Schwartz
from New York; Clifford Krauss from Houston; Lizette Alvarez from Tampa,
Fla.; and Dave Thier from St. Charles Parish, La.
COPY : http://www.nytimes.com/
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