North and South Korea trade fire
Residents of island evacuated to
shelters after shelling exchange caps days of rising tension
South Korea fires back at North after artillery shells land in disputed waters
Residents on South-controlled island are evacuated to shelters after exchange of fire caps days of rising tension
The skirmish in the Yellow or Western Sea came a day after Pyongyang warned that it could carry out a “new kind” of nuclear test , and followed multiple missile tests by the North. Experts have also warned that it could be harder to predict the country’s actions given the recent political turbulence which saw its youthful leader Kim Jong-un purge his uncle Jang Song-taek.
No shells from either side were fired at any land or military installations, an official with South Korea's joint chiefs of staff told Associated Press. Unusually, the North warned in advance that it planned to hold a live-fire drill; when shells landed south of the disputed boundary, the South, which had warned it would respond, returned fire into North Korean waters.
A defence ministry spokesman in Seoul said around 100 North Korean shells had landed south of the line.
Tensions are common at this time of year because of the North’s anger at annual joint military exercises by the South and the US, but the exchange of fire was the most dramatic incident near the northern limit line since 2010.
The South scrambled F-15 fighters to patrol its side of the border and authorities evacuated the residents of five frontline islands to shelters. Kang Myeong-sung, a resident speaking to AP from a shelter on Yeonpyeong, said he did not see any fighter jets, but he could hear the boom of artillery fire. In 2010, North Korean artillery killed four South Koreans on Yeonpyeong; Pyongyang said it was responding to the South’s exercises.
“This is right between normal springtime tensions and something just slipping out of control,” said John Delury, an expert on the North, at Yonsei University in Seoul.
“Short-range missile tests are common – but not as many as they have done in the last few weeks. Medium-range ones pushed that further, sparking the United Nations security council condemnation. And then North Korea said ‘Okay, we could do a fourth nuclear test’. If that happens, it starts its own chain of reaction.
Cheng Xiaohe, of the school of international studies at Renmin University, said he did not believe Monday’s incident would escalate into large-scale conflict. He said Pyongyang was probably seeking to vent its anger and demonstrate its defiance against the UNSC announcement and to counter the joint military drills.
“It is [also] concerned its needs should be addressed and not just ignored,” especially given the international community’s focus on Ukraine, Cheng added.
Delury said the North’s motives for the Monday exercises were likely to be multiple, including trying to regain the international attention attracted by South Korean president Park Geun-hye’s speech in Dresden on inter-Korean relations.
“Two days later this is their response: pointing out the gap between her rhetoric and the reality,” he said.
He suggested Kim was probably also seeking to send a message to the North’s elite and its public after a tempestuous period climaxing in the execution of his uncle in December.
Wee Yong-sub, a deputy spokesman at the South Korean defence ministry, said Monday morning’s warning from Pyongyang that it would conduct firing drills in seven areas north of the sea boundary was a hostile attempt to heighten tension on the Korean Peninsula. But analysts said that the North was probably hoping to ensure the South did not strike back too strongly.
Seoul’s defence minister said last month that the North had finished initial preparations for another underground nuclear detonation at its test site, but that no signs of an imminent blast had been spotted.
Many North Korea analysts believe it is likely to hold its fourth test soon. What a new kind of test would constitute is unclear; one possibility is that it wants to try an enriched uranium bomb rather than a plutonium device. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the east Asia non-proliferation programme at the James Martin Centre for Non-proliferation Studies, wrote on the 38north blog last week that the North might be preparing for multiple blasts.
An acceleration in the pace of testing – its previous detonations were carried out in 2006, 2009 and 2013 – might suggest that it was not carrying them out simply as demonstrations of its nuclear capability or determination to equip itself, but was able to make real progress through tests.
"They believe they are entitled to it," said Leonid Petrov of Australian National University.
"Their primary purpose is regime survival; [the North] doesn't want to surrender or denuclearise or change. Kim Jong-un must keep people loyal. Nuclear weapons in that sense also have a certain value; to give people the sense of invincibility."
COPY http://www.theguardian.com
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