March 23, 2014 -- Updated 1356 GMT (2156 HKT)
Pro-Russia demonstrations were planned for Sunday in Ukrainian cities,
as Russian forces continued consolidating their hold over Crimea,
seizing a Ukrainian submarine, ships and an airbase.
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FORCES SMASH INTO BASE
NATO concerned over Russian army buildup on Ukraine border
March 23, 2014 -- Updated 1752 GMT (0152 HKT)
NATO concerned about Russian buildup
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- NEW: NATO commander says Russia has a large force on Ukraine's eastern border
- NEW: "Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner," NATO commander says
- "We must not allow a new division of Europe," says German foreign minister
- Pro-Russia rallies planned in southern, eastern Ukraine
Supreme Allied Commander
Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove said Russia had a large force on Ukraine's
eastern border and that he was worried it could pose a threat to
Moldova's separatist Trans-Dniester region.
"The (Russian) force that
is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizable and
very, very ready," Breedlove, a U.S. Air Force general, said.
"There is absolutely
sufficient force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to
Trans-Dniester if the decision was made to do that, and that is very
worrisome."
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Russia said its forces complied with international agreements. Moscow
annexed Crimea following a controversial snap referendum in the
autonomous region last week that produced an overwhelming majority of
votes in favor of leaving Ukraine to join Russia.
"Russia is acting much
more like an adversary than a partner," Breedlove said, speaking at an
event held in Brussels, Belgium, by the German Marshall Fund think tank.
Other officials expressed concern too.
"It's deeply concerning
to see the Russian troop buildup along the border. It creates the
potential for incidents, for instability," Tony Blinken, White House
deputy national security adviser, told CNN's "State of the Union."
"It's likely that what they are trying to do is intimidate the Ukrainians. It's possible that they are preparing to move in."
Pro-Russia demonstrations planned
Pro-Russia
demonstrations were planned for Sunday in Ukrainian cities outside
Crimea, a Black Sea peninsula. The shows of favor for Moscow were
scheduled for cities in Ukraine's south and east, where there are many
ethnic Russians.
On Saturday, six Russian
special forces armored personnel carriers broke through the gates of
Belbek air base, firing warning shots into the air, a spokesman for
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense in Crimea told CNN. One journalist was
injured in the attack, said Vladislav Seleznev.
In a separate incident,
pro-Russian self-defense forces stormed the Novofederoskoe military
base, also in Crimea, taking control of it, a Ukraine Defense Ministry
spokesman said.
Seleznev also said that Crimean self-defense forces and Russian special forces took a Ukrainian ship, the Slavutych.
The ship was captured
"after a two-hour assault," he said, though the Ukrainian ship's crew
members came ashore and didn't suffer any injuries.
Ukrainian forces on the
Novofederoskoe base threw smoke bombs during the incident and retreated
to the base's headquarters, Seleznev said in a Facebook posting.
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The base's aviation brigade then sang the Ukrainian national anthem, lowered the Ukrainian flag and left the base, he said.
The White House urged
Russia to open talks with the Ukrainian government. But in a statement,
it also held the Russian military directly responsible for any
casualties inflicted on Ukrainian military members -- whether from
regular Russian troops or militias not wearing insignias.
International monitors
The incidents occurred
as international observers were set to arrive in Ukraine to monitor the
security and human rights situation, in a posting expected to last at
least six months.
But they will not enter
the contested region of Crimea, a statement from the Russian Foreign
Ministry said, because this "became part of Russia."
The Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe will eventually deploy a total of 100
observers throughout Ukraine in hopes of "reducing tensions and
fostering peace, stability and security." They will also check that the
rights of ethnic minorities are being protected.
The OSCE may widen the
mission to include 400 more monitors, and extend it for a second
six-month period if requested by the Kiev government.
Russia, which is one of the OSCE's 57 member states, approved the mission, according to state-run Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
Russia's Foreign
Ministry said it hoped the observers' work would stop nationalist
extremists, who Moscow says have a strong influence on Kiev's
government, and protect linguistic rights. Many Ukrainians speak Russian
as their native language.
Russia has previously
said it reserves the right to enter Ukrainian territory to protect
ethnic Russians from what it says is a threat from ultranationalists and
fascists.
Meanwhile, European leaders have demanded that independent monitors be granted access to the Crimean Peninsula.
OSCE monitors made
multiple attempts to enter Crimea during the height of the crisis, when
pro-Russian militias took control of the region. But armed men at the
borders turned them back.
Claims on Crimea
Ukraine, the United States and other Western powers maintain Crimea is still a part of Ukraine.
"We must not allow a new
division of Europe," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier
said Saturday in Kiev, where he met with with Ukrainian Prime Minister
Arseniy Yatsenyuk and acting President Oleksandr Turchynov.
Russia insists its actions are legitimate. Crimea had belonged to Russia until 1954, when it was given to Ukraine.
The region also has a majority ethnic Russian population and other long historic ties to Russia.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, making it strategically important to Moscow.
Moscow has doggedly
pursued its own course, even as Western leaders have denounced its
actions as violations of Ukraine's sovereignty and a breach of
international law.
U.S. President Barack Obama plans to meet with leaders of the G7 group of industrialized nations this week to discuss Ukraine.
Russia has been excluded from the talks on the sidelines of a nuclear summit in the Netherlands.
A planned EU-Russia summit has also been canceled, as the West seeks to increase Moscow's isolation over its actions in Ukraine.
EU leaders imposed a new
round of sanctions against 12 individuals last week, bringing the total
number of people facing EU asset freezes and travel bans to 33.
The United States
announced its own new round of sanctions against 20 individuals and a
bank which U.S. officials say is linked to Putin and senior Russian
officials. Washington had already announced sanctions on 11 individuals.
"What we've seen the
President do in recent weeks, and what we'll see him do this week, is
bring the world together in support of Ukraine, to isolate Russia for
its actions ... and reassure our partners and allies in NATO and
Europe," Blinken said.
Journalist Azad Safarov and CNN's Ivan
Watson, Frederik Pleitgen, Laura Smith-Spark, Tom Watkins, Matt Smith
and Ben Brumfield contributed to this report.
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Does the Russian president have a long-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? And if so, where is his next target?
FULL STORY
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NATO FEAR OVER RUSSIAN ARMY BUILDUP
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TROOPS BOOSTED
What does Vladimir Putin want next?
March 21, 2014 -- Updated 1729 GMT (0129 HKT)
Russian business uneasy after sanctions
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Russian President approval ratings are at highest in recent years
- Analysts are asking if he is a rational actor, or "drunk on power"
- Assumption at NATO headquarters is that Putin won't stop at Crimea
- Russian businesses will suffer as Putin portrays West as adversary not potential partner
These are the questions
preoccupying western governments and Russia's neighbors, after the swift
annexation of Crimea and Russian military maneuvers close to the
Ukrainian border.
There were some
tantalizing clues in Putin's pugnacious speech to the Duma this week. He
described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate -- because it had
separated Russians. "The Russian nation became one of the biggest, if
not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders," he
said.
"It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realized that it was not simply robbed, it was plundered." He went on to say, "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard."
Bildt: Putin's agenda is Kiev, not Crimea
Putin's approval rate skyrockets at home
Map of Crimea
Heady, populist rhetoric
-- but it has propelled the Russian President to his highest approval
rating -- 71% -- in recent years, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center.
Putin said Russia had no
intention of violating Ukraine's sovereignty (beyond the 5% of its
territory it has absorbed this week.) "Do not believe those who want you
to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea," he
told Ukrainians.
But he then said this: "It should be above all in Ukraine's own interest to
ensure that these people's rights and interests are fully protected.
This is the guarantee of Ukraine's state stability and territorial
integrity."
In other words, if the Kremlin believes Russians are being discriminated against, Ukraine's independence is no longer assured.
Those words will have
echoed across parts of the former Soviet Union with large Russian
populations: Moldova (10%), Lithuania (6%), Latvia (27%) and Estonia
(25%). Will the Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova begin
agitating for its own referendum? Will oblasts (regions) of eastern
Ukraine demand their own vote?
Transnistria is already
beyond the control of the Moldovan government. Just as a statue of Lenin
overlooks the main square in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, so
another stands outside Transnistria's regional assembly in Tiraspol. In a 2006 referendum more than 95% of voters said they wanted to be reunited with Russia.
The assumption at NATO
headquarters is that Putin won't stop at Crimea. Secretary General
Anders Fogh Rasmussen described the annexation of Crimea as "21st
century revisionism, attempts to turn back the clock, to draw new
dividing lines on our map, to monopolize markets, subdue populations."
NATO has already stepped up air policing over the Baltic states -- all members of the Alliance.
Nor does the White House see Crimea as Putin's end-game. In imposing sanctions against figures close to Putin, President Obama stressed Thursday that further Russian incursions would trigger a third round of sanctions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy.
One of Putin's reasons
for ignoring the warnings so far is history, as he made clear in front
of the Duma. On Kosovo, NATO expansion, Libya and other issues, he said,
the West had lied to and deceived Russia. He didn't use the word
payback, but he didn't need to.
Gradually, pro-Western
governments have taken power around Russia, across the Baltics, now in
Ukraine -- feeding the age-old Russian fear of encirlement. Indeed Putin
asked the Duma this week: what if Sevastopol in Crimea -- with its
glorious place in Russian military history -- had become a NATO base
within Ukraine? A line had to be drawn.
But that line has only
hastened the signing of Ukraine's association agreement with the
European Union. In signing the agreement Friday, the President of the
European Council, Herman van Rompuy, pointedly said it was a response to
"the popular yearning for a decent life as a nation, for a European way
of life." The subtext was that Putin's Russia was on the wrong side of
history -- anti-democratic, corrupt, without values.
Putin's clique
Another reason for
Putin's embrace of high-octane nationalism, according to some analysts,
is that he increasingly relies on a small inner circle, where there are
few voices of caution or dissent. There was a sign of this when Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met US Secretary of State John Kerry in
London recently. U.S. officials were surprised that Lavrov -- despite
his enormous experience -- had no mandate to negotiate or even discuss
aspects of the crisis. Lavrov announced Friday that the President would
personally supervize the reintegration of Crimea.
Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin
Alexei Kudrin was known
to speak his mind as Finance Minister from 2000-2011. He believes the
consequences of sanctions and market anxiety may cost Russia $200
billion this year in capital flight. The ruble has already lost 10% of
its value this year and the credit rating agency Fitch's said Friday
that "Since U.S. and EU banks and investors may well be reluctant to
lend to Russia under the current circumstances, the economy may slow
further and the private sector may require official support." Economists now expect the Russian economy to stagnate and perhaps slide into recession.
That hurts people
closest to the Russian President, the billionaires who control large
chunks of the Russian economy. Major companies like Metalloinvest and
state banks like VTB need access to capital markets. Will Putin feel
their pain, or must the oligarchs also make patriotic sacrifices?
Another unknown is
whether the Kremlin feels the West has the stomach for serious, lasting
sanctions. After the Russian incursion into Georgia in 2008, when South
Ossetia was essentially annexed, there was brief and mild retribution.
The list of individuals sanctioned by the U.S. and European Union this
time round may make a greater impact. But the avenues for dialogue -
through NATO, the European Union, the G8, the United Nations -- are
closing down.
Perhaps the biggest
question is whether Putin accepts that Russia in the 21st century must
be fully integrated into the international economy -- as a member of the
World Trade Organization, with a convertible currency and a rule of law
that allows and encourages companies to do business there. Or does he
believe Russia is strong enough to stand aloof in the knowledge that the
world (and especially Europe) can't do without its oil, gas and
minerals? Similarly, does he see the value of international co-operation
on Iran's nuclear program or Syria? Russia has no desire to see a
nuclear-armed Iran, nor Syria taken over by jihadist militants. But
co-operation with the West does not follow.
Despite the fact that
his "cashiers" are now sanctioned, and his attempts to prevent Ukraine
from drifting westward have backfired, Putin's muscular defiance -- so
popular at home and in Crimea -- portrays the West as Russia's natural
adversary, not its potential partner.
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