Clinton
holds a 4-point edge among likely voters in the historically
blue-tilting Pennsylvania, and Trump tops Clinton by 5 with voters in
red-leaning Arizona. Though both states tilt in the same direction as
their 2012 results, the leaders' margins are tighter than their
predecessors' final leads were in each state.
Florida
appears to be as tight a contest as ever, with Clinton at 49% among
likely voters and Trump at 47%. That's an apparent shift in Clinton's
direction since the last CNN/ORC poll there in September before the
presidential debates began, but still a within-margin-of-error race.
In
Nevada, the poll suggests the race has also shifted, with Trump now
ahead there 49% to 43%, with 5% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson,
compared with a two-point Clinton edge in mid-October.
While
that shift is statistically significant, it could be reflective of
timing: The mid-October poll came at a particularly bad time for Trump
in most polls, following the second presidential debate and the
revelation of a tape in which Trump talked about sexually aggressive
behavior toward women using vulgar language. The new poll comes at a
challenging time for Clinton in many polls, with national and some state
polling narrowing amid news that the FBI has obtained additional emails
that could be relevant to their investigation of the private server she
used while secretary of state.
Across
all four states, women are more apt than men to support Clinton, men
tilt to Trump in each place. White voters break heavily in Trump's favor
in each state, while non-whites favor Clinton by wide margins. And
voters who say they have already cast ballots in Arizona and Nevada are
about evenly split, with a narrow advantage for Clinton, while she holds
a wide margin among those who say they have already voted in Florida.
Trump tops Clinton by double-digits in all three states among those
likely voters who say they plan to cast their ballot on November 8. In
Pennsylvania, where votes cast before election day come only from those
who apply for an absentee ballot and have a reason why they can't vote
on Election Day, there were too few early voters to analyze.
In
Florida and Nevada, there are sharp enthusiasm gaps between Clinton
voters and Trump voters, with the Trump backers far more likely to say
they're enthusiastic about voting this year in both Florida (58% among
Trump supporters, 48% among Clinton backers) and Nevada (61% for Trump
voters, 48% for Clinton supporters). In Arizona and Pennsylvania, there
isn't much of an enthusiasm gap, but also not much enthusiasm either,
with fewer than half of voters saying they are extremely or very
enthusiastic about voting for president this year.
A split on issues
On
the issues, Trump's advantage on the economy spans all four states,
while Clinton continues to top Trump on foreign policy. The landscape on
the issues has changed little compared with earlier polling in each
state, with voters closely divided on whether Trump or Clinton would
better handle immigration or terrorism.
Clinton
has the edge on health care across states, an issue that has emerged as
a recent campaign touchpoint as open enrollment for 2017 approaches.
Clinton holds her narrowest margin on the issue in Arizona, where she is
ahead by a statistically insignificant 1 point. Arizona is seeing some
of the largest increases in Obamacare premiums for the coming year, and
it's an issue Trump has been raising on the campaign trail recently.
Clinton
also tops Trump in all but Arizona on having a clear vision for the
country's future, and tops him in all four states as having the
temperament to serve effectively as president and handle the
responsibilities of commander-in-chief.
Despite
those advantages on "presidential" attributes, Clinton continues to be
dogged by questions about her honesty, and lags well behind Trump on
honesty and trustworthiness in each of these four states. Clinton's
disadvantage on that issue, though, has only worsened in Nevada. In the
rest of the states, the resurfacing of the email server issue appears
not to be shifting those numbers.
Tight Senate races, too
All
four of these states also have senate seats up for grabs this year,
three of the four are incredibly close contests. In Florida, Marco
Rubio's once wide lead over Patrick Murphy has evaporated, and the race
is now a 1-point contest, 49% back Rubio, 48% Murphy. The Nevada race to
replace the Senate's top Democrat Harry Reid has swung back toward
Republican Joe Heck, but here too the race is within margin of error,
with Heck at 49% to Catherine Cortez Masto's 47%. The margin widens
slightly in Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbent Pat Toomey lags
behind challenger Katie McGinty by 5 points. In Arizona, John McCain
holds a wide lead over challenger Ann Kirkpatrick, topping her 52% to
39%.
The
CNN/ORC polls were conducted by telephone Oct. 27-Nov. 1. Results
reflect interviews with 867 registered voters and 769 likely voters in
Arizona, 884 registered voters and 773 likely voters in Florida, 860
registered voters and 790 likely voters in Nevada and 917 registered
voters and 799 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Results among likely
voters have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points in each
state.
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CNN/ORC poll: New strength for Trump, Clinton up in Florida
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